Even in the best middling opportunities basketball and football may present, odds are slim a game will fall between a narrow window allowing a gambler to win two bets. But through the influx of low juice books and shopping prices through town and offshore it’s become easier to wager a large chunk of your bankroll on both sides in a contest with limited risk and huge upside.
This approach to betting sports directly reflects a market investment strategy executed by Nassim Taleb referred to as the inevitability of disaster whereby you can’t always predict chance events and when they’ll occur but rather put yourself in a position to capitalize when they do unfold. Here is an example:
For illustration purposes, let’s use Team A and Team B.
The opening number for Team B is -1 vs. Team A.
Line moves throughout the day and closes Team A -2.
The astute gambler using arbitrage recognizes which direction the number is going to head and locks in wagers on Team A at +1 for 110 to win 100 and Team B +2 for 110 to win 100. While it may seem foolish to risk 220 with such a small window to middle the game, you can actually win by not only middling the game if Team A wins by 1 but also through siding the game if Team B wins by 1 or loses by 2, meaning you’d win one of the wagers and push the other.
What’s been done in this scenario is the gambler is only risking 10 bucks in juice for the opportunity to win 200 if the game falls in his perfect scenario. Risk is reduced even further with shorter juice but assuming it was a .20 cent line (most common in Vegas for pointspread wagering -110/-110) a gambler would need to hit 1 out of 20 to break even with anything above that success rate serving as pure profit and emphasis on getting the best numbers for largest middle opportunities.
Baseball provides an even better prospect for this type of wagering through moneyline manipulation specifically in a 10-cent line. Unlike betting football or basketball against the spread, if you can gauge where a moneyline’s going to move, you can consistently lock in profits regardless of the actual outcome because you’ve created a scalp.
The scalp allows the gambler to lay a price, say -175, and as the price climbs throughout the day he can take back any price of +177 and begin making a small return on investment.
One point I want to get across through all of this is that just because these opportunities exist in the betting marketplace, this wagering strategy is not easy to execute. If you happen to bet the wrong side initially and the line moves against you, prospects for arbitrage are thrown out the window.
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