Sunday, May 15, 2011

MLB's best and worst bets so far this season

It might be hard to believe, but a month and a half has already passed this baseball season. As the weekend wraps up, most teams will have 40 or so games under their belt, putting them a quarter of the way through the year.
And if, before the season, you thought there was no way we’d be talking about the Indians at this point, well, you’re surely not alone. But there’s no getting around the Tribe as we break down the best efforts so far this year (along with some of the worst).

Best Money Unit Team: Cleveland Indians (+14.72 units)
The Indians have been so red-hot at home this season that all they’ve needed to do is be mediocre on the road to hold one of the top records in the majors. Cleveland (24-13) is a stout 15-4 at Jacobs Field, losing there on the first two days of the season before peeling off 14 consecutive home wins, and the Indians are 9-9 on the road.

That effort has the Indians up 14.72 units for the year – nearly twice as much as any other team in the bigs. After the 0-2 start, the Tribe won eight in a row and 12 of their next 14. Yet they were constantly an underdog. Cleveland went off as a pup in its first dozen games and has only been favored in 15 of 37 games so far this year.

The next two teams in the money unit rankings hail from the National League East. Florida (23-15) is up 8.0 units, thanks in part to an 11-6 road record. Philadelphia (25-13) is third in the majors at 7.07 units, playing steady ball at home (13-7) and on the road (12-6).

Last year, San Diego led the majors, finishing up 19.05 units.

Worst Money Unit Team: Minnesota Twins (-12.18 units)

The perennial playoff contenders have been a huge disappointment this season, sitting dead last not only in the American League Central, but in all the majors with a 12-25 record. Minnesota is coming off a season in which it rated fifth in the bigs at 13.19 units.

Prior to Saturday’s 6-0 rout of the Yankees, Boston (19-20) was the worst bet in baseball. The Red Sox got off to a horrible start this season, dropping their first six games and going 2-10 in their first dozen contests, despite being favored 11 times. The Sox are working their way back toward .500, but they are still at -10.4 units, second-worst in baseball.

Best Home Team: Cleveland Indians (15-4)

Time to talk about the Tribe again. The Indians are winning at a 78.9 percent clip in the home uniforms. Cleveland is coming off two losing seasons at home (35-46 in 2009, 38-43 in 2010) but has generally been decent at the Jake. The Indians were above .500 from 2004-2008, including 52-29 in 2007.

But 15-4 at this point is definitely way above the norm for Cleveland. And don’t forget the Indians, oddly enough, are last in the majors in home attendance.

Two teams share the next-best home straight-up mark, by percentage, with San Francisco at 10-5 and Milwaukee at 12-6 (66.6 percent). Perennial doormat Kansas City (15-8, 65.2 percent), Philly (13-7, 65 percent) and Texas (14-9, 60.9 percent) hold the next three spots.

The worst home team straight up? The Twins at 4-10 (28.6 percent), followed by the White Sox (5-11, 31.25 percent) and the San Diego Padres (7-14, 33.33 percent).

Best Road Team: Tampa Bay Rays (13-5)


The Rays generate such meager attendance at home that they seemingly enjoy playing in front of anybody, even if it’s in opposing stadiums.

The Rays’ average attendance at home this season is 16,519, in a stadium that seats more than 34,000. That rates 29th in the majors. The average attendance at Rays road games is more than 9,000 higher, at 25,524, and Tampa is winning on the road at a 72.2 percent clip. Right now, any team other than Cleveland would gladly take a home record as good as the Rays’ road mark.

The Phillies are second-best on the highway at 12-6 (66.6 percent), followed by Florida (11-6, 64.7 percent) and the Angels (13-8, 61.9 percent).

The road team to steer most clear of? The Milwaukee Brewers, with their 6-15 mark (28.6 percent), followed by Kansas City (5-11, 31.25 percent) and Arizona (6-13, 31.57 percent).

Best Over Team: St. Louis Cardinals (25-14-1 O/U)

The Redbirds and their opponents are racking up the runs this year, withthe over hitting 62.5 percent of the time. And lately, it’s been a steady stream of overs for St. Louis, with the total going high in its last five outings and 14 of its last 18.

Honorable mention goes to the New York Mets, with a 23-14-2 over record, and Cincinnati at 22-16-1.

Best Under Team: Tampa Bay Rays (14-24-1 O/U)

Nobody’s doing low scores quite as well as the Rays. However, the bulk of those unders came in the first 18 games of the season, when the total went low 15 times (83.3 percent).

Minnesota is next on the under list at 15-22-0, followed by the Pirates (15-22-2) and the Angels (15-22-3).