Expectations for Dallas in 2011 were the same as the year before, and the year before that. Win 50 games under the radar and then a quick exodus from the playoffs.
Portland was the trendiest upset pick by sharps, squares, fans and analysts in the first round. That didn’t happen. Slapped with +330 underdog odds in the next round, the Mavs weren’t getting by the defending champs. The Lakers were gone in four. The Thunder looked like immature seventh graders as Dallas disposed of them in the Western Conference finals.
There’s no question the veteran-laden Mavs have discovered the fountain of youth. Peja has pep in his step, Kidd shed a head wrinkle and Marion reentered the matrix.
Of course, there can’t be enough said about Dirk. His offensive performance in the Western Conference finals is easily one of the best in history. And because of that, every NBA fan has a new favorite “My Pet Monster”.
Water cooler circles can now correctly pronounce Dirk’s last name and talking heads analyze where he ranks among the all-time greats. As a lifelong Mavericks witness, it pleases me to see Dirk garnering the attention he deserves. But it irks me to think about why it took so long.
Here’s a fun trivia question: Name the two NBA players that have ranked in the Top 10 in scoring each of the last 10 years.
You probably guessed the name of some guy with a Lakers jersey on. Having trouble with the other? It’s the golden-locked wunderkind.
Irk with no “D” or not, this guy has been one of the Top 3 players for a decade. And while he isn’t near the peak of legends, no one should be faulted for putting him in the same conversation as the Jordans, Johnsons and Birds of the basketball world.
Dirk has been ignored most of his career because he doesn’t have the right skin tone, and that’s not a racist statement. But I digress. Let’s take a look at the upcoming NBA Finals.
I’ve attempted to block corrupt days in June 2006 from my memory, but this is a rematch of those finals when Cubes and the Mavs were grand-theft-auto’d by David Stern. Cruising in the driver’s seat with a 2-0 series advantage and a sizable fourth-quarter lead in Game 3, the ratings alarm reached Code Red and Dwyane Wade went to the foul line every 30 seconds for the next four games.
Going into that season, the Heat had +700 odds to win the title and Dallas was listed at +1700. At the beginning of this year, Miami was the favorite to win at +160 while the Mavs had +1500 odds.
Oddsmaker Pete Korner told his clients at the Sports Club Wednesday that the series prices for the potential Finals matchup would be Miami -330, Dallas +270. It was obvious to me those odds were inflated because John Q. Square wasn’t betting any team but the Heat, and I was ready to pounce.
The offshore market was obviously hesitant to offer up such a tasty number as most books opened Miami -190 and Dallas +160 Friday. It could be the homer in me talking, but I still see value with dog.
Korner also said he would make Miami a 6-point favorite at home in Game 1, but most of the industry opened the spread at 4.5.
Maybe D-Wade’s recent slump is the reason for the numbers disparity. Or perhaps the public’s insatiable desire to bet on the “Big 3” is trumped in the minds of oddsmakers by Dallas’ profitable Las Vegas run.
The social buzz word going these days is “epic” and that perfectly describes the Mavs’ success covering spreads over the last six weeks. They are 16-2-1 ATS since a regular season outing against the Clippers and 12-2-1 ATS during the playoffs.
Over the last 10 years, the Nuggets are the closest team to match that 80.0 percent covering clip. They started the 2009 playoffs on a 12-0 ATS streak and finished 13-3 ATS.
The 15-game unbeaten run Dallas went on is the longest in major sports going back to 1995. Ohio State won and covered all 11 regular season football games in 1995 while the Philadelphia Eagles won and covered nine straight during their 2003 campaign.
So what’s the explanation for the Mavs breaking the books? If only we had Cuban on speed dial. Hell, he might even be cashing a few of these tickets himself. Wonder what a billionaire would throw down on a single bet?
There must be something dumped into the Dallas water every five years because the Mavs were cashing like crazy in 2006 as well. They went 16-7 ATS during that postseason including a 10-2 ATS mark away from home. Keep in mind, they are 6-0-1 ATS in road playoff games this year and won outright as underdogs in five of those.
So who will the commish choose to crown champion in 2011? Ze sharp-shooting German assassin or the marketing holy grail hovering over South Beach?
Justice is owed by the Basketball Gods.
