Ninety-eight years ago the longest of long shots won the Kentucky Derby. Donerail in 1913, at odds of 91-1, won in (at the time) a new track record.
Bettors, as is their wont, looked back on their past performances and saw a game second-place finish in the 1913 Lexington against a speedy front runner who got away, and a jockey switch for the Derby that would bring some experience to the saddle, and said, “Yeah I could have seen that”. It’s what we do.
In honor of these long shots and 20/20 hindsight, we’d like to share some of “shudda, cudda, wudda” stories gained over these recent years of long shots in the Kentucky Derby:
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I was at the 2009 Kentucky Derby, and was in charge of a small bachelor party weekend gambling pool. Weeks had been spent breaking down every conceivable outcome for the Derby, and I felt as confident as I have ever felt on track that day.
And then it rained, it poured, the skies opened and the track was a mess. I had somewhat planned for this, but with three year olds with few past performances to go on, finding a mudder can be difficult. I placed my bets early that morning and kept a few bucks on hand for those last minute wagers based on what I saw on the odds board.
And I’m glad I waited, it was only about 10 minutes to post when it hit me. In my mind I saw the light blue and brown silks of Birdstone skipping across the muddy tracks three years prior: The Champagne, the Belmont, the Travers and I knew I had to bet a horse by Birdstone. Looking at the past performances I bet on… Summer Bird, and I finished second, third, and fourth in my exacta and trifecta tickets and Summer Bird stormed up the lane in the stretch to finish sixth.
When I saw it was Mine That Bird on the wire I had a “why me” moment that still haunts me to this day. I think the only angle one could have used to come up with Mine That Bird was the pedigree, and that’s a hard angle to hang your hat on in the biggest race of the year, but someone must have done it.
In 2005, I was the cause of it for a friend. He knows that I’m a horse enthusiast and picked my brain about the race. I advised Afleet Alex and Flower Alley, but told him the same advice I recently wrote: Don’t be afraid to bet a horse for any reason.
My friend’s nickname is Joco, and I mentioned betting Joco-mo. At 50-1, betting him isn’t something I’m going to do, but I wouldn’t stop him from doing it if he wanted to. Long story short, he didn’t bet Joco-mo and doesn’t seek out my advice as often any more.
Giacomo wasn’t completely out of the blue like Mine That Bird. He had some success in the road to the Derby, but not winning success. His only win prior to the Kentucky Derby was a maiden, but looking back the 2005 Derby was going to be a front-running mess. Every prep winner was a front runner, the runners-up were front runners. It was one of the hottest paces in Derby history going 1:09 for 6f.
Giacomo, while not a stone-cold closer had made up some lengths in his races on West Coast tracks known for their speed biases. Again, hindsight is 20/20, and you’d be hard pressed to take that angle before the race is run.
In the above examples, I wouldn’t say that the public missed a betting opportunity on a winning horse, it was more that the horse had all the stars align and got a little lucky. The same can’t be said for the 1999 Kentucky Derby Winner, Charismatic, who went off at 31-1.
A horse that went on to win the Preakness before unfortunately sustaining an injury while finishing third in the Belmont. Charismatic was a good horse. He posted a big victory in the Lexington two weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby where he earned an eye opening 108 Beyer speed figure.
However, most of the serious horses for the Kentucky Derby prep 3-5 weeks before. The Lexington is seen as a race for horses on the bubble, a race for horses which need the graded earnings, a race for owners who want to say they had a horse in the Kentucky Derby. The race is not for serious contenders.
Well, these owners, Bob and Beverly Lewis, had more than a want for free tickets to Churchill and trainer D. Wayne Lukas did know his way around the strip in the 90’s. The horse that shouldn’t have been 31-1 had a lot of things going in his direction and posted a nose victory over favorite Menifee.
This year? The Derby doesn’t have a clear cut favorite.
Many preseason and during-season favorites have fallen on tough times: Uncle Mo lost, Jaycito has a nagging injury, To Honor and Serve and Tapizar got injured. Add in the recent long-shot winners, and I’m not sure you’ll see a horse close to or greater than 50-1.
And if you asked me now who would be the longest shot on the board, I’d have a hard time saying who it would be. That doesn’t mean that after the race there won’t be a few “shudda, cudda, wudda” stories.
