In the land of the Delta Blues, the Grizzlies have been smoother than blue suede shoes. Elvis would be proud.
Including the playoffs, Memphis has gone 59-32-2 at the wagering window. If a flat $100 bettor started riding this cash cow at the beginning of the season, he’d have boosted his bankroll by an additional $2,380.
Word on the Las Vegas strip was that sharp bettors were waiting to pound Memphis during the playoffs. Perhaps a tipping point for the wiseguys was a 20-9-1 ATS mark against winning West teams during the regular season. Memphis also took 10 games outright as 5.5-point underdogs or more.
Before the Grizzlies went into triple-overtime hibernation and decided to miss point-blank layups during the last two games, they were 7-1-1 ATS in the playoffs.
The 2007-08 Celtics are the closest team in the last 20 years to match Memphis’ ATS success. They covered at a 62.3 percent clip that season behind a 66-40-2 ATS mark. The Bucks went 55-32-2 ATS last year and the 2002-03 Knicks were 46-22-3 ATS.
A pivotal point for Memphis this year came in late March when it went to Boston clinging to the last playoff berth. It was an emotional homecoming for Tony Allen and Leon Powe, and the Grizzlies pulled out a gutsy victory as 6-point dogs. Powe said it provided confidence for the young team.
But it’s been the play of two veteran big men that have the Grizzlies on everybody’s upset radar. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol were the reason this team ranked first in points in the paint during the regular season, and the nastiest power forward-center tandem in the league has created matchup nightmares during the playoffs.
Many teams passed on the opportunity to acquire Randolph during the summer of 2009 because of multiple on and off-court incidents. But now we’re starting to see why Lionel Hollins convinced management to take a chance. The deal the Clippers made to send Z-Bo to Memphis for Quentin Richardson is why Mike Dunleavy will never hold the title of general manager again.
Speaking of bad trades, you might recall Gregg Popovich saying that the deal between the Lakers and Grizzlies that essentially swapped Gasol brothers was “beyond comprehension”.
Sure, Pau's overall resume has been more prolific, but Marc has been the better Gasol by far this postseason. And, after the first round, it’s safe to assume Pop might reconsider his statement.
And there can’t be enough said about O.J. Mayo. The guy was boarding a plane to Indiana at the deadline but at the last minute the trade fell through. He could have cried, sulked, quit on this team, but he didn’t. Mayo’s production off the bench this postseason has been instrumental.
Tom Thibodeau certainly deserved to win Coach of the Year but Memphis’ Hollins should have finished runner-up instead of sixth. Why? Let me share a story that went unnoticed by most.
When Rudy Gay initially went down with a shoulder injury, the media reported he would be out eight weeks. The media speculated that the injury to the team’s best player would prevent the Grizzlies from reaching the postseason.
Neither event transpired. While we counted the days until Gay’s expected return, the team already knew he wasn’t coming back. When surgery officially ended Gay’s season, Hollins revealed they had known for a month.
The motivational speeches from the head coach during that stretch must have been John Wooden-esque. Allen and Randolph immediately elevated their play and the team went 15-5 ATS in the first 20 games without Gay.
Before the season started, the Grizzlies had 60/1 odds to win the NBA Finals. At the All-Star break those odds had adjusted to 200/1. When the playoff matchups were set, most sportsbooks had Memphis as a 150/1 long shot to capture the title.
Andrew Patterson, of the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, said the Grizzlies would be +270 underdogs to beat Dallas should they advance to the conference finals. The Mavs would be tagged with -220 odds should the Thunder move on.
“I think both teams can beat the Mavericks,” said Patterson. “With the way the Mavericks have played, it would be hard to bet against them, but if the number gets inflated because of the perception there will be some value on either the Thunder or the Grizzlies.”
If their ATS record says anything, it’s that the Grizzlies may be the best No. 8 seed in NBA history. And by the grace of Graceland, they may become the first team in that position to advance to the Western Conference finals.
