Oddsmakers have the Miami Heat (-175) favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks (+155) in the NBA finals. Let's take a look at the Four Factors, what they mean, and how the two finalists stack up in each category:
Effective field goal percentage
This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a two-point field goal and its formula is field goals made plus 0.5 times 3-point field goals made divided by field goal attempts (FGM + 0.5 * 3P/FGA).
Say Player A, for example, goes 4-for-10 with two threes while Player B goes 5-for-10 with no threes. Each player would each have 10 points from field goals and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage of 50 percent.
The Mavericks had a slightly higher eFG% than the Heat in the regular season, 52.48-52.44, with Dallas finishing third in the league and Miami fourth.
Center Tyson Chandler led the way for Dallas at 65.4, which ranked second in the NBA to the 68.6 of Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan, while forward Dirk Nowitzki had a 54.5 mark. Miami was led by LeBron James' 54.2.
Defensively, the Heat held opponents to a 47.51 eFG% while the Mavericks were at 48.83. Miami wound up third while Dallas was ninth.
The difference between Miami's offensive and defensive eFG% was 4.93, compared to Dallas' 3.65. Thus, the Heat hold the edge in this category.
Free throw rate
This is a measure of how often a team gets to the foul line and cashes in, the formula being free throws made divided by field goal attempts (FT/FGA).
Using the Heat in their clinching victory over the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference finals last Thursday as an example, they made 25 free throws and attempted 66 field goals. So Miami’s free throw rate was 37.9.
The Heat were second in the NBA in FTR during the regular season with a 36.3 mark, Each of the Big Three of guard Dwyane Wade (47.0) forward Chris Bosh (45.0) and James (45.0) repeatedly made their way to the charity stripe. Meanwhile, the Mavericks were just 21st with a 28.6 mark despite the presence of Chandler (72.0), who ranked second in the league to Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard at 88.0.
Dallas was better at keeping teams away from the line with a 27.5 FTR while the Heat was 29.9 as the teams ranked fourth and 13th, respectively. However, Miami has the edge in this category with a difference of 6.38 to Dallas' 1.13.
Turnover rate
This metric is calculated with the formula of turnovers times 100divided by field goals attempts plus free throw attempts times 0.44 plus turnovers [(100 * TO/FGA + (FTA * 0.44) + TO)].
We'll use the Mavericks as an example from their clinching victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last Wednesday in the Western Conference finals as an example. Dallas had 12 turnovers while taking 78 shots from the field and 36 from the foul line. Thus, its turnover rate was 11.34.
Miami had a 13.52 TOR, which was 19th in the league, while Dallas was 21st with a 13.60 rate. Surprisingly, Bosh was the Heat's best ball handler with a 9.85 mark. The Mavericks were topped by Nowitzki's 9.07 TOR.
Both teams were better at forcing turnovers as Miami was fifth at 12.62 and Dallas was 13th at 12.99. The Heat again holds the advantage in this category, though, with a difference of 0.90 to the Mavericks' 0.61.
Offensive rebounding rate
This measure determines the percentage of offensive rebounds a team grabs and is calculated by the formula of 100 times offensive rebounds divided by offensive rebounds plus opponents' defensive rebounds [(100 * OREB) / (OREB + Opp DREB)].
Using the Mavericks again an example from the win over the Thunder, they had 14 offensive rebounds and Oklahoma City grabbed 34 defensive boards. Thus, Dallas' offensive rebounding rate was 29.17.
Neither of the finalists was very adept on the offensive glass in the regular season as Miami was 19th with a 25.17 percentage and Dallas was 26th with a 24.08 mark. The Heat was topped by Bosh's 6.3 and the Mavericks' leader was Chandler (12.1).
The Heat also held the edge in opponents' ORR, 25.16-24.48. Furthermore, the 0.69 difference between Miami's ORR and its opponents' is better than Dallas minus-1.08, giving the Heat a clean sweep of the Four Factors.
So what we can derive from the Four Factors?
The biggest surprise is that Chandler is much more of a force inside than traditional statistics suggest as his regular-season averages of 10.1 points and 9.4 rebounds were solid but not spectacular. He could be an X factor against the Heat, not noted for its frontcourt play.
However, the numbers show that the Heat are the rightful favorites to win the series, MAYBE.
