No. 2 Miami Heat
Series price: Chicago +170, Miami -200
OFFENSE
The Heat finished eighth in scoring during the regular season to Chicago’s 20th. It’s nothing short of taxing to guard a team that features Chris Bosh, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade. For the Bulls, Derrick Rose needs more help before his club can begin to think of itself as an offensive juggernaut. If Carlos Boozer plays like he did against Atlanta in Game 6, however, Chicago might keep pace.
Edge: Miami
DEFENSE
The Bulls were the second-best defensive team in the league behind Boston in terms of points allowed during the regular season. With a front line of Boozer, Joakim Noah, Omer Asik and Taj Gibson, Chicago should be able to force the “Big 3” to do its damage from outside the paint. Miami has the roster to play great defense and it’s allowing only 88.8 points per game during the playoffs. But the team’s commitment on that end of the floor can be hit-and-miss.
Edge: Chicago
SEASON SERIES
Chicago won all three tilts between the two powerhouses (2-0-1 ATS) in the regular season, but not one was decided by more than four points. It should also be noted that the streaky Miami squad was mired in one of its many swoons each time it went up against Chicago. The first game came during a four-game losing streak while the second and third contests came during a stretch in which the Heat lost six of seven.
Edge: Chicago
REBOUNDING
If the Heat want to get over the hump, they will have to do a better job on the glass against the best rebounding team in the NBA (Chicago blew away the field with a plus-5.74 differential during the regular season). The Bulls dominated the boards all three times: 42-30 on Jan. 15 (James was out with an ankle injury), 53-39 on Feb. 24, and 36-30 on March 8.
Edge: Chicago
HEAT INDEX
This was always going to be a tale of two seasons for the championship-or-bust Heat - a relatively meaningless regular season followed by the all-or-nothing playoffs. After taking care of Philadelphia in five games, Miami made surprisingly quick work of Boston, also in five games. Having won its last four games heading into postseason action, Erik Spoelstra’s bunch has now prevailed in 12 of its last 14 outings.
The case is somewhat the opposite for Chicago, which stunned the rest of league by compiling the best record in the NBA at 62-20. After winning 21 of their last 23 games, however, the Bulls have looked slightly vulnerable amidst one loss (and several near-losses) to Indiana and two setbacks against Atlanta (including Game 1 at home).
Edge: Heat
INJURIES
The good news for Chicago is that Rose is completely over the ankle issue suffered in Round 1 and Boozer is looking better and better as he battles a case of turf toe. With Miami also sitting pretty in the injury department, the stage is set for a blockbuster series.
Edge: Even
PREDICTION
While the Bulls may be the better team, in the true essence of the word, the question is if Rose has enough help to overcome the Heat’s conglomerate of stars. Don’t be surprised if the MVP has to do too much and eventually wears down at the end of the series for the No. 1 seed to get bounced.
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