DALLAS/MIAMI KEY TRENDS

In the business world, the Four Factors of production are land, labor, capital and entrepreneurship.The Four Factors of advanced basketball statistics, though according to Ken Pomeroy, are effective field goal percentage, free throw rate, turnover rate and offensive rebounding rate.

Oddsmakers have the Miami Heat (-175) favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks (+155) in the NBA finals. Let's take a look at the Four Factors, what they mean, and how the two finalists stack up in each category:

Effective field goal percentage

This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a two-point field goal and its formula is field goals made plus 0.5 times 3-point field goals made divided by field goal attempts (FGM + 0.5 * 3P/FGA).

Say Player A, for example, goes 4-for-10 with two threes while Player B goes 5-for-10 with no threes. Each player would each have 10 points from field goals and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage of 50 percent.

The Mavericks had a slightly higher eFG% than the Heat in the regular season, 52.48-52.44, with Dallas finishing third in the league and Miami fourth.
Center Tyson Chandler led the way for Dallas at 65.4, which ranked second in the NBA to the 68.6 of Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan, while forward Dirk Nowitzki had a 54.5 mark. Miami was led by LeBron James' 54.2.

Defensively, the Heat held opponents to a 47.51 eFG% while the Mavericks were at 48.83. Miami wound up third while Dallas was ninth.
The difference between Miami's offensive and defensive eFG% was 4.93, compared to Dallas' 3.65. Thus, the Heat hold the edge in this category.

Free throw rate

This is a measure of how often a team gets to the foul line and cashes in, the formula being free throws made divided by field goal attempts (FT/FGA).
Using the Heat in their clinching victory over the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference finals last Thursday as an example, they made 25 free throws and attempted 66 field goals. So Miami’s free throw rate was 37.9.

The Heat were second in the NBA in FTR during the regular season with a 36.3 mark, Each of the Big Three of guard Dwyane Wade (47.0) forward Chris Bosh (45.0) and James (45.0) repeatedly made their way to the charity stripe. Meanwhile, the Mavericks were just 21st with a 28.6 mark despite the presence of Chandler (72.0), who ranked second in the league to Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard at 88.0.

Dallas was better at keeping teams away from the line with a 27.5 FTR while the Heat was 29.9 as the teams ranked fourth and 13th, respectively. However, Miami has the edge in this category with a difference of 6.38 to Dallas' 1.13.

Turnover rate

This metric is calculated with the formula of turnovers times 100divided by field goals attempts plus free throw attempts times 0.44 plus turnovers [(100 * TO/FGA + (FTA * 0.44) + TO)].

We'll use the Mavericks as an example from their clinching victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last Wednesday in the Western Conference finals as an example. Dallas had 12 turnovers while taking 78 shots from the field and 36 from the foul line. Thus, its turnover rate was 11.34.

Miami had a 13.52 TOR, which was 19th in the league, while Dallas was 21st with a 13.60 rate.  Surprisingly, Bosh was the Heat's best ball handler with a 9.85 mark. The Mavericks were topped by Nowitzki's 9.07 TOR.

Both teams were better at forcing turnovers as Miami was fifth at 12.62 and Dallas was 13th at 12.99. The Heat again holds the advantage in this category, though, with a difference of 0.90 to the Mavericks' 0.61.

Offensive rebounding rate

This measure determines the percentage of offensive rebounds a team grabs and is calculated by the formula of 100 times offensive rebounds divided by offensive rebounds plus opponents' defensive rebounds [(100 * OREB) / (OREB + Opp DREB)].

Using the Mavericks again an example from the win over the Thunder, they had 14 offensive rebounds and Oklahoma City grabbed 34 defensive boards. Thus, Dallas' offensive rebounding rate was 29.17.

Neither of the finalists was very adept on the offensive glass in the regular season as Miami was 19th with a 25.17 percentage and Dallas was 26th with a 24.08 mark. The Heat was topped by Bosh's 6.3 and the Mavericks' leader was Chandler (12.1).

The Heat also held the edge in opponents' ORR, 25.16-24.48. Furthermore, the 0.69 difference between Miami's ORR and its opponents' is better than Dallas minus-1.08, giving the Heat a clean sweep of the Four Factors.

So what we can derive from the Four Factors?

The biggest surprise is that Chandler is much more of a force inside than traditional statistics suggest as his regular-season averages of 10.1 points and 9.4 rebounds were solid but not spectacular. He could be an X factor against the Heat, not noted for its frontcourt play.

However, the numbers show that the Heat are the rightful favorites to win the series, MAYBE.

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The Mavericks must feel a lot like Rodney Dangerfield.

The only time they make national headlines is when Mark Cuban is ruffling feathers from his soap box. He is their biggest marketing tool, not some 7-foot lurch from Germany.

Expectations for Dallas in 2011 were the same as the year before, and the year before that. Win 50 games under the radar and then a quick exodus from the playoffs.

Portland was the trendiest upset pick by sharps, squares, fans and analysts in the first round. That didn’t happen. Slapped with +330 underdog odds in the next round, the Mavs weren’t getting by the defending champs. The Lakers were gone in four. The Thunder looked like immature seventh graders as Dallas disposed of them in the Western Conference finals.

There’s no question the veteran-laden Mavs have discovered the fountain of youth. Peja has pep in his step, Kidd shed a head wrinkle and Marion reentered the matrix.

Of course, there can’t be enough said about Dirk. His offensive performance in the Western Conference finals is easily one of the best in history. And because of that, every NBA fan has a new favorite “My Pet Monster”.

Water cooler circles can now correctly pronounce Dirk’s last name and talking heads analyze where he ranks among the all-time greats. As a lifelong Mavericks witness, it pleases me to see Dirk garnering the attention he deserves. But it irks me to think about why it took so long.

Here’s a fun trivia question: Name the two NBA players that have ranked in the Top 10 in scoring each of the last 10 years.

You probably guessed the name of some guy with a Lakers jersey on. Having trouble with the other? It’s the golden-locked wunderkind.

Irk with no “D” or not, this guy has been one of the Top 3 players for a decade. And while he isn’t near the peak of legends, no one should be faulted for putting him in the same conversation as the Jordans, Johnsons and Birds of the basketball world.

Is Lebron the best ever? Not in my book

At the ripe age of 26, LeBron James has won two MVP awards, he has two NBA Finals appearances, several All-Star berths, and his Miami Heat team will be the odds-on favorite to win the NBA title next week as they prepare to take on the Dallas Mavericks. He also has zero NBA titles.

At the same age, NBA legend Michael Jordan had just as many titles, just as many MVP awards, and his Bulls weren't even the favorites (despite home court advantage) as they prepared to take on the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1991 NBA Finals.

All this was enough for Jordan teammate and guy-who-should-know Scottie Pippen to toss this out, while appearing on ESPN Radio Friday morning:

"Michael Jordan is probably the greatest scorer to ever play the game. I may go so far as saying LeBron James may be the greatest player to ever play the game."

Whoa, guy. Seriously?
(And is he actually wrong?)
No, James hasn't surpassed Jordan in any meaningful way yet. He hasn't won jack, in comparison to MJ's six titles. He hasn't simultaneously won a Defensive Player of the Year in the same season he led the NBA in scoring, though that might be Dwight Howard's(notes) fault more than anything else. And because James joined the Miami Heat midway through his career, he'll never be looked at as the singular drive behind any championships he earns. After all, when Jordan won his first ring in 1991, Pippen hadn't even made an All-Star team by then.

But parsed correctly, tossing in a "might be" before "the greatest player to ever play the game," and following that with a "when all is said and done," Pip has to be taken seriously, here. James is 26, and he might be the greatest player to ever play the game when all is said and done. A lot of us have felt that for years.

Pippen, as you'd guess, has been put on the defensive. Fans are getting after him on his Twitter account, and earlier on Friday he posted this:

For all of you that don't know, I played the game you keep watching and cheering.

Ah, Scottie, you don't need to be that defensive. You may be the most versatile defender in NBA history, but you don't need to darken the mood, here. You just need to brighten, and clarify. By any reasonable standard, be they rings or Player Efficiency Ratings or "I seen 'em"-recollections, Jordan is the best ever.
But LeBron James? He has the talent and the time to surpass him. And for those of us, "watching and cheering," that obsessed over every one of Jordan's minutes in his prime? We can understand that. 

MJ still gets my vote easily.

MLB: Cincinnati @ Philadelphia

Cincinnati fell 10-3 at Philadelphia Monday night and extended its season-high losing streak to six games.  The Reds have also dropped nine consecutive games at Citizens Bank Park, with their last win on July 7, 2009.  “We just haven’t played well against the Phillies in a long, long time,” said Reds starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo.  “They find ways to beat us and tonight they beat us up real good.”  The club’s losing streak is a sudden 180-degree turn from a recent stretch when they won five in a row and eight of nine games.  Outfielder Jay Bruce is one of only a few players contributing at a high level recently, going 15 for 30 with four homers and nine RBIs over his last eight games.  First baseman Joey Votto has been handcuffed against tonight’s opponent, tallying one hit in his last 14 at-bats.  Cincinnati is 3-1 this season after allowing 10 or more runs.

Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto will be making just his fourth start of the season, bringing in a 2-1 record and 1.45 ERA.  The right-hander picked up his first loss of the year last time out, dropping a 5-3 home contest to the Pirates, surrendering a season-high three earned runs and five hits over just five frames.  Cueto has tallied a 17-20 record and 4.16 ERA in 50 career road starts, which is a bit different than his 17-13 mark at home.  In four career starts versus the Phillies, he has posted a 1-2 record and 5.96 ERA, including a 1-0 mark and 1.20 ERA in two starts last year.

Philadelphia is still just 11-10 in May with last night’s victory after posting a franchise-best 18-8 record in April.  The Phillies have outscored the Reds 48-25 during their nine-game home winning streak against them and showed off some pop in the order with shortstop Jimmy Rollins and third baseman Placido Polanco both hitting home runs.  The return of star second baseman Chase Utley may have had something to do with last night’s offensive performance, returning to the lineup for the first time in 47 games this season.  “I had some good swings, I had some bad swings,” Utley stated.  “Every else had some pretty good swings.”  The club’s 14 hitters was the most since tallying 15 back on April 9.  Philadelphia is 18-15 versus right-handed starters.

Phillies starting pitcher Vance Worley is 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA in four appearances (two starts) this season and his last two outings have come out of the bullpen.  The right-hander had made both of his starts this year at Citizens Bank Park, producing his 2-0 mark and 0.75 ERA, holding opponents to a .143 average.  Worley has been very effective with his pitches this year, issuing just six walks and compiling 15 strikeouts in 16 innings.  Tuesday night will be his first career appearance versus Cincinnati.

Bettors will likely back the Phillies due to their 51-23 record in home games, while the Reds are 2-7 in Cueto’s last nine starts

Surprising NBA Conference Finals Observations

1) Lebron is clutch (73-73 with 4 minutes left in Game 2 VS Chicago; 12-2 run to  close the game and seize control of the Eastern Conference Finals).

2) Miami is a better defensive unit than Chicago.

3) Chris Bosh belongs in “The Big Three.” No, really, he does.

4) Dirk Nowitzki really is that good (My dad told me he’s still not as good as Larry Bird).

5) Derrick Rose disappeared in the 4th quarter---twice.

6) Erik Spolestra might actually know what he’s doing.

7) Aside from LeBron and Bosh, Tyson Chandler was the biggest acquisition of the offseason. “Dallas Mavericks” and “tough” are no longer an oxy moron thanks to Chandler.

8) Jason Kidd is the best Point Guard in the Western Conference Finals. Hands down.

9) JJ Barea is the 2nd best Point Guard in the Western Conference Finals. That’s right.

10) Eric Maynor is the 3rd best Point Guard in the Western Conference Finals. When will Scott Brooks realize it?

11) Kevin Durant isn’t ready to be a leader. SEE: Game 4 VS Dallas.

12) The Kendrick Perkins trade actually made both teams worse. Perkins has no use in this particular Western Conference Finals series. They expected the Lakers with this move, but got the Mavericks.

13) Jason Terry is the most underrated player in the NBA. There's a saying, "automatic offense," and this guys defines that term.

14) Joakim Noah is as stupid as he is ugly. Hopefully he doesn't let the fans get into his head again.

Mavericks at Thunder: What bettors need to know

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder

Series tied 1-1

THE STORY: The Oklahoma City Thunder followed up a weak bench effort with a strong one, and now returns home tied 1-1 in their Western Conference final matchup with the Dallas Mavericks. James Harden led a 50-point effort from the Thunder reserves in a 106-100 victory in Game 2. With the series shifting to Oklahoma City for Game 3 on Saturday, the focus will be on which team gets more out of its bench players moving forward.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: Dallas did well to contain Thunder superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, holding them to 42 points - 18 fewer than they racked up in the opener. Yet it was the Harden-led charge from the reserve unit that ultimately did in the Mavericks, who had multiple chances to take a fourth-quarter lead but couldn't execute. Dirk Nowitzki followed up his 48-point performance in Game 1 with 29 points Thursday, hitting 10 of 17 shots from the field and nine of 10 attempts from the line. No other Dallas player scored more than 15 points, and Nowitzki's teammates combined to shoot just 8 for 28 from the floor in the second half.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks took a major gamble in the fourth quarter, playing reserve point guard Eric Maynor ahead of Westbrook. It paid off, but questions remain about how Westbrook - who averaged more than 34 minutes per game during the regular season - will respond to the extended benching. Harden assumed the supporting offensive role in Westbrook's absence, pouring in 10 of his 23 points in the final quarter. That made up for a dismal effort from the rest of the starting lineup, as Thabo Sefolosha, Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka combined to score just 14 points. Maynor added 13 in just 19 minutes.

WHO'S HOT/WHO'S NOT: Durant had to work for his 24 points in Game 2, getting to the free-throw line just three times while missing all five of his 3-point attempts. Shawn Marion was aggressive on the boards - hauling down six offensive rebounds - but shot just 4 of 13 from the field and will need to be better in Game 3.

KEY STATISTIC: 26-6 - The Thunder's record following a loss this season. Oklahoma City has yet to lose consecutive games in the playoffs.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Mavericks are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Mavericks are 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
* Underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
* Road team is 18-7-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings.

LAST WORD: "You can’t mess that chemistry up. Coach made a good decision." - Durant on Brooks' decision to leave Westbrook out of the game in the fourth quarter.

MLB's best and worst bets so far this season

It might be hard to believe, but a month and a half has already passed this baseball season. As the weekend wraps up, most teams will have 40 or so games under their belt, putting them a quarter of the way through the year.
And if, before the season, you thought there was no way we’d be talking about the Indians at this point, well, you’re surely not alone. But there’s no getting around the Tribe as we break down the best efforts so far this year (along with some of the worst).

Best Money Unit Team: Cleveland Indians (+14.72 units)
The Indians have been so red-hot at home this season that all they’ve needed to do is be mediocre on the road to hold one of the top records in the majors. Cleveland (24-13) is a stout 15-4 at Jacobs Field, losing there on the first two days of the season before peeling off 14 consecutive home wins, and the Indians are 9-9 on the road.

That effort has the Indians up 14.72 units for the year – nearly twice as much as any other team in the bigs. After the 0-2 start, the Tribe won eight in a row and 12 of their next 14. Yet they were constantly an underdog. Cleveland went off as a pup in its first dozen games and has only been favored in 15 of 37 games so far this year.

The next two teams in the money unit rankings hail from the National League East. Florida (23-15) is up 8.0 units, thanks in part to an 11-6 road record. Philadelphia (25-13) is third in the majors at 7.07 units, playing steady ball at home (13-7) and on the road (12-6).

Last year, San Diego led the majors, finishing up 19.05 units.

Worst Money Unit Team: Minnesota Twins (-12.18 units)

The perennial playoff contenders have been a huge disappointment this season, sitting dead last not only in the American League Central, but in all the majors with a 12-25 record. Minnesota is coming off a season in which it rated fifth in the bigs at 13.19 units.

Prior to Saturday’s 6-0 rout of the Yankees, Boston (19-20) was the worst bet in baseball. The Red Sox got off to a horrible start this season, dropping their first six games and going 2-10 in their first dozen contests, despite being favored 11 times. The Sox are working their way back toward .500, but they are still at -10.4 units, second-worst in baseball.

Best Home Team: Cleveland Indians (15-4)

Time to talk about the Tribe again. The Indians are winning at a 78.9 percent clip in the home uniforms. Cleveland is coming off two losing seasons at home (35-46 in 2009, 38-43 in 2010) but has generally been decent at the Jake. The Indians were above .500 from 2004-2008, including 52-29 in 2007.

But 15-4 at this point is definitely way above the norm for Cleveland. And don’t forget the Indians, oddly enough, are last in the majors in home attendance.

Two teams share the next-best home straight-up mark, by percentage, with San Francisco at 10-5 and Milwaukee at 12-6 (66.6 percent). Perennial doormat Kansas City (15-8, 65.2 percent), Philly (13-7, 65 percent) and Texas (14-9, 60.9 percent) hold the next three spots.

The worst home team straight up? The Twins at 4-10 (28.6 percent), followed by the White Sox (5-11, 31.25 percent) and the San Diego Padres (7-14, 33.33 percent).

Best Road Team: Tampa Bay Rays (13-5)

The Rays generate such meager attendance at home that they seemingly enjoy playing in front of anybody, even if it’s in opposing stadiums.

The Rays’ average attendance at home this season is 16,519, in a stadium that seats more than 34,000. That rates 29th in the majors. The average attendance at Rays road games is more than 9,000 higher, at 25,524, and Tampa is winning on the road at a 72.2 percent clip. Right now, any team other than Cleveland would gladly take a home record as good as the Rays’ road mark.

The Phillies are second-best on the highway at 12-6 (66.6 percent), followed by Florida (11-6, 64.7 percent) and the Angels (13-8, 61.9 percent).

The road team to steer most clear of? The Milwaukee Brewers, with their 6-15 mark (28.6 percent), followed by Kansas City (5-11, 31.25 percent) and Arizona (6-13, 31.57 percent).

Best Over Team: St. Louis Cardinals (25-14-1 O/U)

The Redbirds and their opponents are racking up the runs this year, withthe over hitting 62.5 percent of the time. And lately, it’s been a steady stream of overs for St. Louis, with the total going high in its last five outings and 14 of its last 18.

Honorable mention goes to the New York Mets, with a 23-14-2 over record, and Cincinnati at 22-16-1.

Best Under Team: Tampa Bay Rays (14-24-1 O/U)

Nobody’s doing low scores quite as well as the Rays. However, the bulk of those unders came in the first 18 games of the season, when the total went low 15 times (83.3 percent).

Minnesota is next on the under list at 15-22-0, followed by the Pirates (15-22-2) and the Angels (15-22-3).

MLB Top 5: Worst fielding teams in baseball

Pitching and defense go hand-in-hand in baseball like love and marriage and a horse and carriage.
Yet, while such statistics as earned run average, WHIP (walk and hits per innings pitched) and strikeout-to-walk ratio can help identify who the best pitchers are, defense is much harder to quantify. Traditional defensive statistics such as fielding percentage and errors don't always accurately gauge the quality of a fielder for a variety of reasons.

However, some of the more advanced metrics developed in recent years do a better job of discerning good defense from bad as they measure how many plays a fielder made compared to the league average. Among those statistics are Baseball Prospectus' Defensive Efficiency (DE) and Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), and Fangraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).

Using those statistics, let's look at the five worst defensive teams in the major leagues, some players who make them such bad fielding teams and starting pitchers must likely to be hurt by leaky defense.

Statistics as of Saturday, May 14, 2011.

Houston Astros (14-24, -7.70 units, 22-16 over/under)

The Astros are the “Lastros” when it comes to defense, as they rank last in both DE and UZR. Second baseman Bill Hall has been awful at the keystone with minus-6.2 FRAA and minus-6.3 UZR. For reference sake, every 10 points is considered the equivalent of one win or loss.

Hall ranks as the worst defensive player in baseball, according to FRAA, while UZR pegs him as the sixth-worst behind Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Raul Ibanez, Atlanta Braves center fielder Nate McLouth, Oakland Athletics left fielder Josh Willingham, Seattle Mariners right fielder Ichiro Suzuki and Chicago White Sox left fielder Juan Pierre.

Anyone who averages less than a combined 10.0 strikeouts and walks per nine innings can be considered a pitch-to-contact type and therefore needs a good defense behind him to be successful. Wandy Rodriguez fits that mold on the Astros, averaging 1.9 walks per nine innings and 7.1 strikeouts. The left-hander's best strategy seemingly is to keep opposing batters from hitting the ball to Hall.

Seattle Mariners (16-23, -5.47 units, 20-16-3 over/under)

The Mariners are 28th among the 30 major-league teams in DE and 27th in UZR, making them the Astros of the American League.

While Ichiro has won Gold Gloves in each of his 10 season since coming to the major leagues from Japan, it is clearly on reputation, especially in light of his advanced metrics this season. He has minus-4.8 FRAA and minus-6.6 UZR - the lowest on the team by both measures.

Pity any Mariners pitcher who allows a fly ball to the outfield. Ryan Langerhans, now at Triple-A Tacoma, is a minus-5.8 in UZR, and Milton Bradley, released earlier this week, was a minus-4.9. The Mariners have two starters who rely heavily on their defense in Doug Fister (2.3/5.9) and Jason Vargas (2.1/5.6).

Chicago Cubs (17-20, -4.12 units, 21-16 over/under)

Starlin Castro, the Cubs' 21-year-old shortstop, was featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated last week. It obviously wasn't for his defense, as his minus-4.1 FRAA is the worst on the team. He doesn't fare much better in UZR with a minus-1.9 mark.

As a team, the Cubs rank 29th in DE and 21st in UZR. Perennial left field butcher Alfonso Soriano has the worst UZR on the club at minus-2.5. FRAA treats him a little better with a minus-0.4 mark.

Carlos Zambrano needs good defense as he is walking 2.8 and striking out 6.3 per nine innings. Ironically, he is not helping his cause. He is the worst-fielding pitcher in the majors in terms of FRAA with minus-1.2.

Chicago White Sox (16-23, -8.81 units, 16-21-2 over/under)

Bad fielding abounds in the Windy City. Is it because of the wind? Or are the Cubs and White Sox eating too much deep dish pizza? Whatever the reason, a number of ChiSox are faring poorly in the defensive metrics and, as a team, they are 23rd in both DE and UZR.

Third baseman Brent Morel, who White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen predicts has a Gold Glove in his future, is minus-3.4 in FRAA, and left fielder Carlos Quentin is at 3.0, though both are on the plus side of the UZR ledger. Conversely, Pierre is awful in the UZR measure but scores positively in FRAA.

The White Sox need to support their pitchers with good defense more than most teams as they have three starters who get hitters to put the ball in play frequently: Mark Buehrle (2.4/4.2), Phil Humber (2.2/5.2) and John Danks (2.8/6.9).

Los Angeles Dodgers (19-20, -2.84, 20-16-3 over/under)

First-year manager Don Mattingly has raved about Matt Kemp's play in center fielder. FRAA and UZR disagree, grading him at minus-5.1 and minus-4.2 respectively. Kemp is part of the reason why the Dodgers rank 26th in FRAA and 18th in UZR.

Utility infielder Jamey Carroll has been a sub-par fill-in for injured shortstop Rafael Furcal, with a minus-2.2 FRAA and minus-1.7 UZR. Better up-the-middle defense would certainly aid Ted Lilly (1.8 /5.9), Jon Garland (2.8/5.9) and Hiroki Kuroda (2.2/6.9).

Grizzlies' grit makes them smarter than the average bet

In the land of the Delta Blues, the Grizzlies have been smoother than blue suede shoes. Elvis would be proud.

The season outlook for Memphis was ominous at best. They play in the superior Western Conference and a stacked Southwest division. But that didn’t prevent the Grizz from putting together the best record against the spread in recent NBA history.

Including the playoffs, Memphis has gone 59-32-2 at the wagering window. If a flat $100 bettor started riding this cash cow at the beginning of the season, he’d have boosted his bankroll by an additional $2,380.

Word on the Las Vegas strip was that sharp bettors were waiting to pound Memphis during the playoffs. Perhaps a tipping point for the wiseguys was a 20-9-1 ATS mark against winning West teams during the regular season. Memphis also took 10 games outright as 5.5-point underdogs or more.

Before the Grizzlies went into triple-overtime hibernation and decided to miss point-blank layups during the last two games, they were 7-1-1 ATS in the playoffs.

The 2007-08 Celtics are the closest team in the last 20 years to match Memphis’ ATS success. They covered at a 62.3 percent clip that season behind a 66-40-2 ATS mark. The Bucks went 55-32-2 ATS last year and the 2002-03 Knicks were 46-22-3 ATS.

A pivotal point for Memphis this year came in late March when it went to Boston clinging to the last playoff berth. It was an emotional homecoming for Tony Allen and Leon Powe, and the Grizzlies pulled out a gutsy victory as 6-point dogs. Powe said it provided confidence for the young team.

But it’s been the play of two veteran big men that have the Grizzlies on everybody’s upset radar. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol were the reason this team ranked first in points in the paint during the regular season, and the nastiest power forward-center tandem in the league has created matchup nightmares during the playoffs.

Many teams passed on the opportunity to acquire Randolph during the summer of 2009 because of multiple on and off-court incidents. But now we’re starting to see why Lionel Hollins convinced management to take a chance. The deal the Clippers made to send Z-Bo to Memphis for Quentin Richardson is why Mike Dunleavy will never hold the title of general manager again.

Speaking of bad trades, you might recall Gregg Popovich saying that the deal between the Lakers and Grizzlies that essentially swapped Gasol brothers was “beyond comprehension”.

Sure, Pau's overall resume has been more prolific, but Marc has been the better Gasol by far this postseason. And, after the first round, it’s safe to assume Pop might reconsider his statement.

And there can’t be enough said about O.J. Mayo. The guy was boarding a plane to Indiana at the deadline but at the last minute the trade fell through. He could have cried, sulked, quit on this team, but he didn’t. Mayo’s production off the bench this postseason has been instrumental.

Tom Thibodeau certainly deserved to win Coach of the Year but Memphis’ Hollins should have finished runner-up instead of sixth. Why? Let me share a story that went unnoticed by most.

When Rudy Gay initially went down with a shoulder injury, the media reported he would be out eight weeks. The media speculated that the injury to the team’s best player would prevent the Grizzlies from reaching the postseason.

Neither event transpired. While we counted the days until Gay’s expected return, the team already knew he wasn’t coming back. When surgery officially ended Gay’s season, Hollins revealed they had known for a month.

The motivational speeches from the head coach during that stretch must have been John Wooden-esque. Allen and Randolph immediately elevated their play and the team went 15-5 ATS in the first 20 games without Gay.

Before the season started, the Grizzlies had 60/1 odds to win the NBA Finals. At the All-Star break those odds had adjusted to 200/1. When the playoff matchups were set, most sportsbooks had Memphis as a 150/1 long shot to capture the title.

Andrew Patterson, of the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, said the Grizzlies would be +270 underdogs to beat Dallas should they advance to the conference finals. The Mavs would be tagged with -220 odds should the Thunder move on.

“I think both teams can beat the Mavericks,” said Patterson. “With the way the Mavericks have played, it would be hard to bet against them, but if the number gets inflated because of the perception there will be some value on either the Thunder or the Grizzlies.”

If their ATS record says anything, it’s that the Grizzlies may be the best No. 8 seed in NBA history. And by the grace of Graceland, they may become the first team in that position to advance to the Western Conference finals.

Bulls vs. Heat: Eastern Conference Finals Preview and Pick

No. 1 Chicago Bulls vs.
No. 2 Miami Heat

Series price: Chicago +170, Miami -200

OFFENSE

The Heat finished eighth in scoring during the regular season to Chicago’s 20th. It’s nothing short of taxing to guard a team that features Chris Bosh, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade. For the Bulls, Derrick Rose needs more help before his club can begin to think of itself as an offensive juggernaut. If Carlos Boozer plays like he did against Atlanta in Game 6, however, Chicago might keep pace.

Edge: Miami

DEFENSE

The Bulls were the second-best defensive team in the league behind Boston in terms of points allowed during the regular season. With a front line of Boozer, Joakim Noah, Omer Asik and Taj Gibson, Chicago should be able to force the “Big 3” to do its damage from outside the paint. Miami has the roster to play great defense and it’s allowing only 88.8 points per game during the playoffs. But the team’s commitment on that end of the floor can be hit-and-miss.

Edge: Chicago

SEASON SERIES

Chicago won all three tilts between the two powerhouses (2-0-1 ATS) in the regular season, but not one was decided by more than four points. It should also be noted that the streaky Miami squad was mired in one of its many swoons each time it went up against Chicago. The first game came during a four-game losing streak while the second and third contests came during a stretch in which the Heat lost six of seven.

Edge: Chicago

REBOUNDING

If the Heat want to get over the hump, they will have to do a better job on the glass against the best rebounding team in the NBA (Chicago blew away the field with a plus-5.74 differential during the regular season). The Bulls dominated the boards all three times: 42-30 on Jan. 15 (James was out with an ankle injury), 53-39 on Feb. 24, and 36-30 on March 8.

Edge: Chicago

HEAT INDEX

This was always going to be a tale of two seasons for the championship-or-bust Heat - a relatively meaningless regular season followed by the all-or-nothing playoffs. After taking care of Philadelphia in five games, Miami made surprisingly quick work of Boston, also in five games. Having won its last four games heading into postseason action, Erik Spoelstra’s bunch has now prevailed in 12 of its last 14 outings.

The case is somewhat the opposite for Chicago, which stunned the rest of league by compiling the best record in the NBA at 62-20. After winning 21 of their last 23 games, however, the Bulls have looked slightly vulnerable amidst one loss (and several near-losses) to Indiana and two setbacks against Atlanta (including Game 1 at home).

Edge: Heat

INJURIES

The good news for Chicago is that Rose is completely over the ankle issue suffered in Round 1 and Boozer is looking better and better as he battles a case of turf toe. With Miami also sitting pretty in the injury department, the stage is set for a blockbuster series.

Edge: Even

PREDICTION

While the Bulls may be the better team, in the true essence of the word, the question is if Rose has enough help to overcome the Heat’s conglomerate of stars. Don’t be surprised if the MVP has to do too much and eventually wears down at the end of the series for the No. 1 seed to get bounced.

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Top 5 ugliest QB situations in the NFL

NFL front offices are proceeding as if the season will start on time. But try selling season tickets when your team has no NFL-caliber starting quarterback.With the next hearing in the labor dispute set for June 3, free agents remain in limbo. A bunch of teams, especially those that did not draft a quarterback last month, are growing increasingly anxious about their QB situation.

Here are the Top 5 teams with the ugliest QB situations, along with their odds to win the Super Bowl in 2012, and how they could be prettied up quickly.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (+6,500)

John Skelton, the big kid from Fordham, sits atop the depth chart. Scary thought.

Skelton (6-5, 258) completed 47.6 percent of his throws in four starts last year following the Cardinals’ failed experiments with Derek Anderson and Max Hall. Skelton even got pulled for Richard Bartel, a Tarleton State product, in the season finale.

"After you go 5-11, I'm not comfortable with anybody we had playing that position," said coach Ken Whisenhunt, whose team nevertheless did not draft a replacement.

Anderson likely will be released, Hall appears headed for the practice squad, and the Cardinals will go all out for Kevin Kolb. Philly must deal Kolb because his contract expires after the season, and the Eagles will demand at least a first-round pick.

Arizona also is reportedly interested in Marc Bulger as Kolb's veteran backup. If Skelton and Bartel were battling for third string instead of No. 1, Whisenhunt would feel a lot more comfortable.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (+4,000)

The Dolphins also did not draft a QB, leaving them with inconsistent Chad Henne and Tyler Thigpen. Henne threw just eight percent of his passes 20 or more yards in the air, according to Pro Football Focus. When he did throw long, he was 10-of-40, which ranked 29th of 31 qualifying QBs.

Normally, cautious QBs don't make a lot of mistakes. But Henne has managed to be both conservative and error-prone, tossing 33 interceptions against 27 TDs in his career.

After going 7-9 overall and 1-7 at home, this team needs a QB change to excite the fan base. Kolb would flourish with Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess. Kyle Orton is in a contract year; a reunion with Marshall could not hurt this passing attack. And Vince Young, 30-17 as a starter, also has been mentioned.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+3,200)

The Vikings are the only team on this list that drafted a QB, but their selection of Christian Ponder at No. 12 overall was highly questionable. Ponder is not a quick decision-maker. He is injury-prone. And while he looks great in practices and against inferior opponents, he hasn't had great success in big games. Remember his 113-yard, two-interception clunker in Florida State's loss at Oklahoma?

ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer called the Vikings' pick "a major, major whiff" and this time I agree with him.

Donovan McNabb, to be released by Washington, might be a good fit. Orton is another possibility. Backup Joe Webb clearly isn't ready.

Coach Leslie Frazier said recently he'll look to add a veteran QB to compete with Ponder. Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and the rest of the Vikings can only hope the acquisition goes through.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+8,500)

Charlie Whitehurst, the QB whose look reminds many of Jesus, is no savior. He averaged a measly 5.1 yards per attempt in six games last season, with two TDs and three INTs. The question isn't whether Whitehurst is a starter but whether he can be a solid No. 2.

The Seahawks have no other QBs under contract; they're sure to be aggressive whenever free agency starts.

Despite coach Pete Carroll’s comment that  Whitehurst "is going to throw his hat in the ring and try to be the starting quarterback here," that's a far cry from saying the team believes Whitehurst is a starter.

Speculation is mounting that Carroll will trade for his former USC signal-caller, Cincinnati's disgruntled Carson Palmer, or pursue Kolb. The Seahawks also could re-sign the man who's led them for a decade, 35-year-old free agent Matt Hasselbeck.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+5,200)

Hopefully Mike Shananan was joking. Or playing it coy.

The Redskins coach suggested he'd be fine with John Beck as his starting quarterback, saying, "I think the world of him." Beck is almost 30 and hasn't started a game since 2007. In those four starts as a Dolphins rookie, the BYU grad was overmatched. He averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, with one touchdown and three interceptions.

Beck is the only QB on Washington's roster besides Donovan McNabb and McNabb isn't coming back. "When [Beck] came out in 2007 ... he was by far my No. 1 guy," Shanahan said, though it should be noted how weak that QB class was. JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Beck and Kolb were the top four taken.

Rex Grossman is a free agent, and Shanahan and his offensive coordinator son Kyle like what Grossman did last year: 280 yards per game, seven TDs, four INTs in three starts (1-2). Grossman could be back to battle Beck for the job.

The Shanahans could gamble on Young. He's only 28. He'll be cut by Tennessee, which just drafted Jake Locker, as soon as the lockout ends. A fresh start is just what Young needs.

What bettors need to know: Sunday NBA playoff action

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks (+3.5, 179)

THE STORY: The Chicago Bulls team that showed up for Game 3 was a lot more like the club that had cruised through the regular season with the best record in the NBA. After regaining home-court advantage with their most dominant performance yet, Derrick Rose and the Bulls have the Atlanta Hawks right where they want them heading into Game 4. The Hawks will need to go back to the drawing board and find a new way to defend Rose when they host Chicago in Game 4 on Sunday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE HAWKS: Atlanta surprised plenty of people with a relatively easy victory in Game 1. The Hawks flew into the United Center and grabbed a 103-95 victory behind 34 points from Joe Johnson. But things have not been quite as easy in the last two games, as the Bulls have rediscovered their focus on the defensive end and the Hawks have been unable to keep pace. Johnson slumped to 10 points in Friday’s Game 3, shooting 4-of-12 from the floor. The bright spot again was Jeff Teague, who has recorded over 20 points in each of the last two games while filling in at the starting point guard spot for the injured Kirk Hinrich.

ABOUT THE BULLS: A bum ankle did not appear to have any effect on Rose on Friday, as the league MVP poured in a career-high 44 points to go along with seven assists and five rebounds. After struggling with his outside shot in the first two games, Rose buried 4-of-7 3-point attempts in Game 3 and went 16-of-27 from the field overall. Chicago jumped out to a 19-point lead in the second quarter and kept it to double digits the entire second half. Atlanta drew to within 11 points in the fourth, but Rose buried a pair of 3-pointers during an 11-0 spurt to put it away.

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Since going off for 22 points in Game 1, Jamal Crawford has totaled 18 on 5-of 17 shooting in the past two games for the Hawks. Luol Deng had a rough night on Friday, held to single digits for the first time in the playoffs when he finished with seven points on 3-of-10 shooting for the Bulls.

KEY STATISTIC: Rebounding. Chicago has dominated the boards in its two wins, building up a 105-73 advantage on the glass in the two contests combined. Joakim Noah has been the most prolific, pulling down 29 rebounds in the past two games.

LAST WORD: “I saw an energy level that, right away, I knew we were in trouble,” said Hawks coach Larry Drew, who called his first timeout just 49 seconds into the first quarter on Friday. “When you play an explosive guard like Derrick Rose, you have to make a commitment to getting back and making sure you try to keep him out of the paint. He’s too fast and too explosive.”

Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks (-2.5, 188)

THE STORY: Win or start the offseason a month earlier than expected. That’s the task facing the two-time defending Los Angeles Lakers when they visit the torrid Dallas Mavericks in Sunday’s Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals. The Mavericks have a 3-0 lead in the series to place the Lakers in the most dire of playoff situations. Not a single team in NBA history has rallied to win a playoff series under those circumstances and the Lakers have looked more like a tired team against Dallas than one in the midst of another NBA title push. Dirk Nowitzki has dominated the series and hit the go-ahead shot in Dallas’ 98-92 victory in Game 3 on Friday.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: Although Nowitzki received ample support from reserves Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic in Friday’s victory, the German proved that he was an unstoppable force in another Dallas triumph. Nowitzki scored 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting and made 4-of-5 3-point attempts. His basket with 1:23 to play put the Mavericks ahead to stay. Terry scored 23 points on 7-of-10 shooting in his best performance of the series and Stojakovic had 11 of his 15 points in the final quarter. The Mavericks outscored the Lakers 17-5 over the final four minutes. Point guard Jason Kidd has struggled with his shooting – he is just 8-of-26 from the field – but is averaging 8.7 assists in the three Dallas victories. Shawn Marion (1-of-7, two points) and J.J. Barea (1-of-5, four points) were not factors after playing pivotal roles in Dallas’ Game 2 victory.

ABOUT THE LAKERS: Los Angeles certainly wasn’t expecting to be in a position where its season might end on May 8. Now, the Lakers will attempt to avoid being the fifth reigning NBA champion to have been swept in a playoff series. Andrew Bynum was the Lakers’ best player in Game 3 with 21 points and 10 rebounds, while Kobe Bryant (17 points) and Pau Gasol (12 points) had average games. Lamar Odom moved into the starting lineup due to the one-game suspension to Ron Artest and scored 18 points. Artest will be back for Sunday’s contest. Los Angeles was 3-for-13 from 3-point range in Game 3 and is shooting a porous 19.2 percent from behind the arc in the series.

WHO'S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Nowitzki is averaging 28 points, 10 rebounds and shooting 70 percent from 3-point range in the series. Gasol is averaging just 13.3 points and shooting 42.9 percent from the field in the three games.

KEY STATISTIC: Dallas made 12 3-point baskets in Game 3. The Lakers have made 10 the entire series.

LAST WORD: “I might be sick in the head or crazy because I think we’re still going to win the series. I might be nuts. But win on Sunday, go back home and see if they can win in L.A.” – Bryant on the predicament facing the Lakers.

What bettors need to know: Red Wings at Sharks

Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks (-146, 5.5)

THE STORY: The San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings are following the script they wrote during their Western Conference semifinal series last year. Detroit is hoping to write a different ending as they try to extend this season's matchup with a victory in Game 5 at the HP Pavilion on Sunday. Last postseason, San Jose won three straight one-goal decisions and were blown out in Game 4 before eliminating the Red Wings on home ice. The stage is set for an identical finish this time around with the exception of the fourth contest, which Detroit won by one goal Friday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, VERSUS, TSN, RDS

ABOUT THE SHARKS: San Jose's quest for the first series sweep in franchise history ended with a 4-3 loss at Joe Louis Arena on Friday. The Sharks showed resiliency, however, as they battled back to forge a 3-3 tie after allowing the first three goals. Rookie Logan Couture recorded a goal and an assist while Ryane Clowe collected three assists. San Jose was outplayed for a good portion of the game and outshot in each period as it allowed 40 shots while registering 28.

ABOUT THE RED WINGS: Detroit had Joe Louis Arena rocking as it scored three times in the first 18:01 of the game to take a 3-0 lead. The crowd became deafeningly silent later on as San Jose chipped away at its deficit before tying the contest 74 seconds into the third period. But Darren Helm sent Hockeytown into a frenzy by snapping the deadlock with 1:27 remaining and helping the Red Wings stave off elimination. Captain Nicklas Lidstrom scored a pair of goals, giving him 54 during his playoff career. The first tally was his 181st postseason point, moving him ahead of Hall of Famer Ray Bourque for second among defenseman and tied him with Jaromir Jagr for 11th overall on the all-time list.

WHO'S HOT/WHO'S NOT: Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk recorded an assist Friday, giving him a team-leading 10 points this postseason. Lidstrom's two goals put him first on the club with four. Datsyuk and Jiri Hudler were the only Red Wings without a shot on goal in Game 4. Clowe is tied for second in the league with 12 points this postseason, one behind Tampa Bay's Martin St. Louis. Clowe, Joe Pavelski and Devin Setoguchi top the Sharks with four goals apiece.

SPECIAL TEAMS: The Red Wings went 1-for-4 on the power play in Game 4 and have converted 25.8 percent (8-for-31) of their opportunities in the postseason. Detroit has a 77.5 percent success rate on the penalty kill. San Jose has scored just six goals on 40 power-play opportunities for a 15.0 percent efficiency. The Sharks also have been shorthanded 40 times, allowing nine tallies for a 77.5 percent success rate.

LAST WORD: "Well, I thought it was a real good job by you guys talking about retirement yesterday. I thought he answered that bell pretty good." - Detroit coach Mike Babcock on the media's speculation about the possible retirement of Lidstrom.

Ketucky Derby betting: Sizing up the recent long-shot winners

Ninety-eight years ago the longest of long shots won the Kentucky Derby. Donerail in 1913, at odds of 91-1, won in (at the time) a new track record. 
Bettors, as is their wont, looked back on their past performances and saw a game second-place finish in the 1913 Lexington against a speedy front runner who got away, and a jockey switch for the Derby that would bring some experience to the saddle, and said, “Yeah I could have seen that”. It’s what we do. 

In honor of these long shots and 20/20 hindsight, we’d like to share some of “shudda, cudda, wudda” stories gained over these recent years of long shots in the Kentucky Derby:

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I was at the 2009 Kentucky Derby, and was in charge of a small bachelor party weekend gambling pool.  Weeks had been spent breaking down every conceivable outcome for the Derby, and I felt as confident as I have ever felt on track that day. 

And then it rained, it poured, the skies opened and the track was a mess.  I had somewhat planned for this, but with three year olds with few past performances to go on, finding a mudder can be difficult.  I placed my bets early that morning and kept a few bucks on hand for those last minute wagers based on what I saw on the odds board. 

And I’m glad I waited, it was only about 10 minutes to post when it hit me.  In my mind I saw the light blue and brown silks of Birdstone skipping across the muddy tracks three years prior: The Champagne, the Belmont, the Travers and I knew I had to bet a horse by Birdstone.  Looking at the past performances I bet on…  Summer Bird, and I finished second, third, and fourth in my exacta and trifecta tickets and Summer Bird stormed up the lane in the stretch to finish sixth. 

When I saw it was Mine That Bird on the wire I had a “why me” moment that still haunts me to this day.  I think the only angle one could have used to come up with Mine That Bird was the pedigree, and that’s a hard angle to hang your hat on in the biggest race of the year, but someone must have done it.

In 2005, I was the cause of it for a friend.  He knows that I’m a horse enthusiast and picked my brain about the race.  I advised Afleet Alex and Flower Alley, but told him the same advice I recently wrote: Don’t be afraid to bet a horse for any reason. 

My friend’s nickname is Joco, and I mentioned betting Joco-mo.  At 50-1, betting him isn’t something I’m going to do, but I wouldn’t stop him from doing it if he wanted to.  Long story short, he didn’t bet Joco-mo and doesn’t seek out my advice as often any more. 

Giacomo wasn’t completely out of the blue like Mine That Bird.  He had some success in the road to the Derby, but not winning success.  His only win prior to the Kentucky Derby was a maiden, but looking back the 2005 Derby was going to be a front-running mess.  Every prep winner was a front runner, the runners-up were front runners. It was one of the hottest paces in Derby history going 1:09 for 6f. 

Giacomo, while not a stone-cold closer had made up some lengths in his races on West Coast tracks known for their speed biases.  Again, hindsight is 20/20, and you’d be hard pressed to take that angle before the race is run.

In the above examples, I wouldn’t say that the public missed a betting opportunity on a winning horse, it was more that the horse had all the stars align and got a little lucky.  The same can’t be said for the 1999 Kentucky Derby Winner, Charismatic, who went off at 31-1. 

A horse that went on to win the Preakness before unfortunately sustaining an injury while finishing third in the Belmont. Charismatic was a good horse.  He posted a big victory in the Lexington two weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby where he earned an eye opening 108 Beyer speed figure. 

However, most of the serious horses for the Kentucky Derby prep 3-5 weeks before.  The Lexington is seen as a race for horses on the bubble, a race for horses which need the graded earnings,  a race for owners who want to say they had a horse in the Kentucky Derby.  The race is not for serious contenders. 

Well, these owners, Bob and Beverly Lewis, had more than a want for free tickets to Churchill and trainer D. Wayne Lukas did know his way around the strip in the 90’s.  The horse that shouldn’t have been 31-1 had a lot of things going in his direction and posted a nose victory over favorite Menifee.

This year? The Derby doesn’t have a clear cut favorite. 

Many preseason and during-season favorites have fallen on tough times:  Uncle Mo lost, Jaycito has a nagging injury, To Honor and Serve and Tapizar got injured. Add in the recent long-shot winners, and I’m not sure you’ll see a horse close to or greater than 50-1.

And if you asked me now who would be the longest shot on the board, I’d have a hard time saying who it would be. That doesn’t mean that after the race there won’t be a few “shudda, cudda, wudda” stories.