HOT TEAM: Cleveland Indians
THIS SEASON: 12-4
LAST WEEK: 4-2
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At Kansas City for four, at Minnesota for three.
THE SKINNY: So much for first impressions. If you closed the book on the Indians after they allowed 23 runs in the first two games of the year, both losses to the White Sox, then you’ve missed out on a hot ticket.
The Tribe just mopped up Baltimore, sweeping a three-game series, and went into Kansas City Monday night in first place in the AL Central and took a 7-3 win in extras. Who knows how long it will last? But the offense should always be there, and outfielder Grady Sizemore was activated Sunday, which only adds to the big bats.
They’re still the Indians, but that’s a good thing. It keeps their prices down and only adds to your early-season bargain buys. Consider riding the Indians for a few more weeks before reality sets in.
COLD TEAM: Baltimore Orioles
THIS SEASON: 6-9
LAST WEEK: 0-5
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to Minnesota for four, home to the New York Yankees for three.
THE SKINNY: The only thing that kept the Orioles from a 0-6 week was a rainout at the Yankees Tuesday. It was that bad for Baltimore and it just goes to show you how misleading the first week of the season can be.
This is a team opened 4-0 and people already had Buck Showalter lined up for the Manager of the Year award. Well, that quieted in a hurry. The Orioles have no regulars batting over .259, and have a combined team ERA of 4.58. That’s not going to strike a chord with many smart bettors, unless you plan on fading them. Which, come to think of it, might not be a bad idea for the rest of the month.
OVER TEAM: Colorado Rockies
O/U THIS SEASON: 11-4-1
O/U LAST WEEK: 6-1
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to San Francisco for three, at Florida for three.
THE SKINNY: Long gone are the rock ‘em, sock ‘em Rockies, with the Dante Bichettes and the Andres Galarragas of the world. This current group is different, but equally as potent. They hit with you more precision than power and if you like overs, this might be your team long-term.
It starts with Troy Tulowitzki and his amazing April numbers, including seven home runs and 14 RBIs. But his cast is like the Energizer Bunny. It keeps going and going. You’ve got Carlos Gonzalez (12 RBIs), Seth Smith (seven doubles), Todd Helton (.366 average), and Jonathan Herrera (four stolen bases). And when you get to the deep end of the bench, you even have guys like Jason Giambi sitting there. Not a bad option.
This team is built to score runs, still has the ballpark to do it in, and might just be one of the best over buys in recent memory. Take advantage.
UNDER TEAM: Atlanta Braves
O/U THIS SEASON: 5-11-1
O/U LAST WEEK: 1-5
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At Los Angeles for four, at San Francisco for three.
THE SKINNY: The Braves had trouble generating offense last week versus the Marlins and Mets, and perhaps more of that is in store this week after losing 4-2 to the Dodgers Monday. They have to travel across the country and take on the pitching-heavy Dodgers and Giants, whch seems like a recipe for some more unders.
The pitching has been great for Atlanta. Derek Lowe has two wins, a 1.82 ERA and 19 strikeouts. Tim Hudson has two wins and a 4.05 ERA. And the bullpen has been adequate.
Offensively, they have some pop with two players sitting at three home runs and Jason Heyward at four, but they’re not driving a bunch in (Chipper Jones is the only Brave with double-digit RBIs). And until they do, they are an under buy.
