The NHL Playoffs are here. That means it’s time to get cozy in front of your favorite big screen and settle in for two months of sheer excitement.There’s nothing like the NHL postseason, not only for hardcore puckheads, but also for savvy bettors. This is one of the best times of the year to make money on the ice.
As is the case in every professional sport, betting the playoffs is a completely different animal compared to the regular season. There are unique edges we can put in play from the opening round all the way to the Stanley Cup final.
Here are four pointers to help make your playoff journey a profitable one.
Stay away from big favorites
It’s not uncommon to see teams priced north of -200, especially in the first round.
In fact, on the opening night of last year’s playoffs, bettors were served two favorites north of -210. Both lost, as the Senators upset the Penguins and the Avalanche stole one from the Sharks.
Favorites of -200 or higher ended up going a miserable 7-8 in the first round of the 2010 playoffs, losing their backers a considerable chunk of change.
There’s a time and place for everything when it comes to sports betting, but it’s rarely a wise decision to get behind these big favorites. There just isn’t much separating a No. 8 seed from a No. 1 seed in the NHL – certainly not when compared to that same matchup in the NBA playoffs, for instance.
If you must play them, consider doing so in parlays to reduce your juice.
Home ice disadvantage?
Home-ice advantage is obviously coveted. It’s what teams play for over the course of the 82-game regular season.
With that being said, it shouldn’t be the No. 1 factor you consider when handicapping the playoffs. Perhaps in no other sport do we see teams come together and play as well on the road in the postseason as we do in hockey.
Hockey players are a different breed. They thrive on the camaraderie built on the road and many teams are actually more comfortable starting a series in enemy territory. The “us against the world” mentality can be a driving force from a motivational standpoint.
Home ice becomes more important as a series progresses. In the first four games, it’s not uncommon to see teams split in each venue. In Games 5 through 7, that’s when you want to put a little more stock in which team has the luxury of playing in front of the home crowd.
Ride the hot goalie
Time and time again, we’ve seen teams that underachieved during the regular season, ride a hot goalie deep into the playoffs.
Last year, the Montreal Canadiens pulled monumental upsets over the Capitals and Penguins with Jaroslav Halak. Two years ago, the Carolina Hurricanes went to the Eastern Conference final thanks to Cam Ward’s heroics.
It’s not an irregular occurrence. Virtually every year, at least one team will go further than anyone expected riding a hot goalie.
While capping the goaltending matchups is key during the regular season, it becomes that much more important at this time of year. Consider looking to the net first, and then work your way out when breaking down a series.
The majority doesn't always win
The betting public doesn’t have a substantial effect on hockey lines – that is until the playoffs roll around.
With the handle increasing at sportsbooks at this time of year, we start to see inflated lines on the ice. You can often find additional value backing an underdog if you wait until just before the puck drops.
A perfect example came in Game 1 of last year’s openinground series between the Red Wings and Coyotes.
Phoenix opened as a home favorite, but the money flooded in on the Red Wings, shifting the line 15-20 cents. The Coyotes closed as +110 home underdogs and went on to win the game, but ultimately succumbed to the veteran Red Wings in the series.
As is always the case, having multiple books at your disposal is key to getting the best lines.
