With help from our trusted database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991.
Here’s what the machine has to say…
NO. 8 SEEDS ARE BEHIND THE 8-BALL
For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the postseason. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.
Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost nearly 75 percent of time (37-107) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks and the 2007 Golden State Warriors were good enough to pull the rug on top-seeded foes and advance to Round 2 of the playoffs.
Worse, they are 7-32 straight up (SU) and 13-23-3 against the spread (ATS) in the postseason with a losing record in opening round games, including 5-11-1 ATS when taking double digits.
And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 2-22 SU and 6-18 ATS, including 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS whenever the No. 8 seeds are off a spread loss of more than five points in their last game.
UPSET LOSERS ARE WINNERS
No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.
That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 50-29-2 ATS (4-1 last season), a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 37-19-2 ATS, including 25-8-1 ATS when squaring off against a No. 3 or higher seed.
Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.
DOUBLE-DIGIT DOGMA
Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 27-14-1 ATS in this role, including 17-6 ATS versus a non-division foe.
These same guys are also 9-1 ATS off a playoff loss of 16 or fewer points.
Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.
AND DOWN GOES FRAZIER
The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-losing skids are one punch away from being counted out.
With glass jaws, these swirling teams are just 5-25 SU and 7-23 ATS away from home, including 2-11 SU and ATS in openers. They are also 3-18 ATS as underdogs versus .635 or greater opposition when on their way to the canvas.
Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three-game losing skids are 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS.
