One of the absolute beauties of early-season baseball is there is no telling what can happen.
Teams that are supposed to be good at the start of the season aren’t and have turmoil right from the beginning. And other clubs, which were supposed to be eliminated from contention right after opening day, are leading the division or close to it.
Take the American League Central, which appears to be upside down. At the top are Cleveland and Kansas City, while the three preseason contenders for the division crown, Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota, are languishing below .500.
But some baseball bettors are skeptical of starts like this. We dig in, trying to find out if teams like the Indians and Royals are for real and when that fact is no longer considered fiction.
Finding where success starts
Both teams have enjoyed manageable schedules, as Cleveland is in the midst of playing 22 of their first 34 games against opponents that were below .500 last season and Kansas City is playing only 11 of its initial 31 contests versus team’s that were above the breakeven point.
With the opposition having similar abilities, an uptick in play has permitted each team to get off to a fast start. Indians and Royals hitters have taken advantage of this opportunity and been in the top four in runs scored in the American League all month.
Another key stat that goes somewhat unnoticed is run prevention. Last season, Cleveland was 13th in walks allowed and Kansas City was 11th, giving the opposing team more chances to score. To date, both teams have improved in this category and are middle of the pack in walks conceded and runs allowed are noticeably down.
The Indians pitching staff as a group is also performing well in two other areas that tell a story not often looked at, but are tied together. Tribe hurlers have permitted the fewest total bases in the American League and are third in on-base percentage allowed. This helps keep the offense in the contest and doesn’t keep the pressure on them to feel they have to score runs in bunches to stay in any game.
Though this makes good copy on the shores of Lake Erie and in barbeque country, it doesn’t necessarily mean the Indians and Royals are truly AL Central contenders.
Determining market value
Covers Expert Steve Merril believes the two biggest surprises in the American League were undervalued coming into the season, but doesn’t expect them to run away with the division.
“I still do not think they are the best teams in the division and will probably have a correction at some point this season and fall closer to the .500 level or below,” says Merril.
Since 1999, teams that won 60 percent or more of their games in April went on to win 87 times (53.7 percent) or more that season, 50 of the 76 occasions in which this occurred.
While it would appear easy to dismiss the Indians and the Royals based on lack of previous accomplishments, in recent years we have had teams come out of nowhere with shocking results.
Last season, the San Diego Padres preseason win total was 74, but a 15-8 opening month gave them confidence and they went on to win 90 games and just missed the playoffs.
One year after finishing 71-91, Detroit was 16-9 in April of 2006, which transformed into winning 95 games and the Tigers made a Fall Classic appearance. The 2005 Chicago White Sox were one year removed from an 83-win campaign and used a 17-7 start of the season to propel them to a 99-63 record and World Series championship.
Slow down, it's a long season
Each year there are clubs that have impressive starts or stumble leaving the gate. Oddsmakers are careful not to overreact to these surprise outcomes, especially during the marathon-like baseball season.
“Our preseason futures were posted at the odds they were for a reason,” says an oddsmaker for Sports Interaction. “This is not to say that a team could be better or worse than we predicted – that happens all the time. We consider these streaks part of the game. We will look at some of these teams a bit later in the season and see where they stand before we adjust.”
The best way to treat these April success stories is to wager on their games while they’re hot and avoid diving into the futures odds just yet. Sportsbooks aren’t going to react right away and you don’t have to either.
If they close the month playing .600 or better, roughly two-thirds of the time these clubs will be chasing a playoff berth come September and should be an above-average wager.
