Brian Duensing (+4.16 units), Minnesota Twins
Baseball’s most profitable starter spent most of his time as a reliever during his first two Major League seasons.
If Duensing keeps pitching like he has, though, he’ll never come out of the bullpen again.
Minnesota has won all three of Duensing’s starts, including road victories over Tampa Bay as a +126 underdog and New York as a +190 dog. In 25 career starts, Duensing has allowed three runs or fewer in 20 of them. His overall record as a starter is 13-3.
That kind of consistency combined with the value you’ll be getting on Duensing makes him an attractive pitcher to bet on as the season progresses.
Pick: Buy
Bruce Chen (+3.54 units), Kansas City Royals
Chen is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (walks + hits per inning), so he deserves credit for getting off to a strong start. But three games shouldn’t be enough to make you forget about his mostly lousy career and his lifetime 4.59 ERA.
Also, it’s unlikely the Royals will continue to give Chen the type of run support he’s enjoyed so far. Of KC’s AL-best 82 runs scored, 20 of them have come in Chen’s three starts.
Eventually, Chen will revert to what he’s always been, a below average pitcher, and the Royals will once again provide him with below average run support.
Pick: Sell
Kyle McClellan (+3.41 units), St. Louis Cardinals
A season-ending injury to Adam Wainwright in February opened a spot in the starting rotation for McClellan, who spent the last three years in the bullpen.
McClellan has held his own so far, posting a 1.89 ERA in three starts, all Cardinals wins.
Some relievers don’t transition well to the starting rotation, but the Cardinals have always believed McClellan could make the jump. Wainwright, in fact, made the same move in 2007 and did so after just a year in the pen.
McClellan has been one of the better under-the-radar set-up men and the hope here is that he continues to go unnoticed as a starter.
Pick: Buy
Aaron Harang (+3.15 units), San Diego Padres
No pitcher will benefit more from a change in venue than Harang, who has spent the majority of his career playing his home games at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Harang gave up 75 home runs over the last three years as a member of the Reds, including a career-high 35 in 2008.
But now that he’s in San Diego playing at roomy PETCO Park, Harang should see his numbers (5.32 ERA last year) improve. He is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP through three starts and has yet to allow a home run.
Harang will be one of the better value pitchers at home this season and should give the Padres a chance to win the majority of his starts if he stays healthy.
Pick: Buy
A.J. Burnett (+3.00 units), New York Yankees
Burnett has been a -142 favorite or more in all three of his starts this year, but it’s still surprising to see him as one of the top money earners.
That’s because Burnett (3-0) routinely lost as a heavy favorite last year and dropped a league-worst 15.68 units.
Don’t be fooled by a strong April start. Burnett had a 2.43 ERA in five April starts last year and the Yankees went 4-1 in those games.
Then Burnett imploded, allowing six or more runs in 10 of his final 27 starts before finishing with a career-high 5.26 ERA.
With the amount of juice Burnett will be laying, he should be a great fade all season long.
Pick: Sell
