The NBA Playoffs are about to jump into high gear with Round 2 action and there are some outstanding technical situations that apply in postseason action. The second round offers up a handful of great investment opportunities as well.
Here’s a look at some game-by-game trends to keep in mind for the second round.
Note: All numbers and trends are since 1991 unless otherwise stated.
ROUND 2 – Game 1
Game 1 hosts own a respectable 64-16 straight up (SU) and 46-31-3 against the spread (ATS) record. There are two specific areas where the home team tends to struggle.
Round 2 Game 1 hosts that enter off a straight up double-digit victory are dead even at 19-19-1 ATS. Also, Round 2 Game 1 home teams that are matched up against a stronger opponent that carries a won/loss percentage of .645 or better are a losing proposition at 13-18 ATS.
ROUND 2 – Game 2
Game 2 hosts are a mediocre 61-19 SU and 38-39-3 ATS. There are three specific areas where these home teams do a touch worse.
First, Game 2 hosts own a weak 12-16-1 ATS mark provided they are favored by seven or more points. Second, home teams are a dismal 12-16 ATS if they beat the pointspread by six points or more in their last outing. Finally, Game 2 hosts are just 6-14 ATS if they are matched up against an opponent that has a won/loss percentage of .670 or better.
ROUND 2 – Game 3
Game 3 road teams are a surprising 37-43 SU and 43-36-1 ATS. There are four specific areas that improve these numbers. Two are good and two are bad.
Be sure to play against a Round 2 Game 3 road team if they are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins (9-12-1 ATS) or off a 3-0 SU and ATS run (6-10-1 ATS).
Look to play on Round 2 Game 3 guests if they enter off a straight up loss (15-4 ATS) or find themselves matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .600 (29-14-1 ATS).
ROUND 2 – Game 4
Game 4 visitors are almost a break-even proposition at 39-41 SU and 38-40-2 ATS. There are two specific areas within this round where the guest plays a little worse.
Road teams that run without rest own a weak 7-12 ATS record. Also, Round 2 Game 4 guests are 2-5 ATS provided they enter off two or more straight up losses.
ROUND 2 – Game 5
Game 5 hosts are a noteworthy 52-16 SU and 31-35-2 ATS. It should be noted that teams in this role that enter off two or more straight up losses are just 8-12-1 ATS.
You certainly don’t want to lay a lot of lumber with these hosts either. Favorites priced at -6 or more at this stage of the dance are just 12-23 ATS.
ROUND 2 – Game 6
Game 6 visitors are a woeful 19-24 SU and ATS. How you invest your hard earned dollars here depends on what the road team did in Game 5.
If our guest enters off a SU and ATS victory, you’ll want to fade them here as road teams in this situation are a woeful 5-14 ATS. If the visitor arrives off a SU and ATS loss, then you’ll look to play on theses guests as they are a solid 8-5 ATS.
Finally, road teams that scoot in off a blowout victory of 10 points or more have fallen on hard times notching a 3-13 ATS mark.
ROUND 2 – Game 7
Game 7 home teams are a reliable 17-6 SU and 12-10-1 ATS. With such a small sample size, there were no significant tighteners that applied to these Game 7 hosts.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Monday, April 25, 2011
Four MLB teams that are better than you think
Pythagoras never bet on the dime line.
Yet the ancient Greek philosopher, mathematician and religious leader can help us find some undervalued teams now that we're a little more than three weeks into the Major League Baseball season.
Pythagoras' greatest contribution to the world of mathematics was the Pythagorean theorem, which states that "in any right triangle, the area of the square whose side is the hypotenuse (the opposite the right angle) is equal to the sum of the areas of the squares whose sides are the two legs (the two sides that meet at the right angle)."
What does geometry have to do with baseball? Well, the sabermetricians, those who study the advanced metrics of baseball, believe that the Pythagorean theorem can help identify overachieving and underachieving teams.
The baseball version of the Pythagorean theorem uses the numbers of runs scored and allowed by a team to determine its expected record. The formula is to square the number of runs scored and divide it by the numbers of runs scored squared plus the number of runs allowed squared.
In other words, a team that scores 700 runs in a season and allows 700 runs in a season would be expected to finish exactly at .500 with an 81-81 record over a 162-game schedule. A team that scores 800 runs and allowed 600 runs would be expected to have a .640 winning percentage and a record of 104-58. Conversely, a team that scores 600 runs and allows 800 run would be expected to play at a .360 clip and finish 58-104.
There are four teams this season who have underperformed their Pythagorean records by two wins. The math says these teams are poised for a regression to the mean, stat talk for a market correction, and could be good plays if undervalued by the oddsmakers. Let's take a look at the four teams and some starting pitchers who would benefit from their teams' change of luck.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
The Cardinals are scoring 5.18 runs a game and allowing 3.77, which should be good for a 14-8 records. Instead, they are 12-10. Despite the inefficiency, the Cardinals are hitting a National League-best .327 with runners in scoring position and two outs but that has been mitigated by grounding into double plays in 19 percent of their plate appearances with a runner on first base and less than two outs, the worst figure in the league.
When the regression to the mean occurs, Chris Carpenter should benefit. The Cardinals have lost all five of his starts this season, even though his ERA of 3.90 is just 0.05 below the NL average. Furthermore, he has been the worst pitcher against the moneyline at minus-797.
ATLANTA BRAVES
The Braves' averages per game are 3.78 runs scored and 3.30 runs allowed, which should translate to a 13-10 record. Instead, they are a game under .500 at 11-12, though the regression seemed to start over the weekend when they swept a three-game series from the Giants in San Francisco. Still, the Braves have the second-worst on-base percentage (.302) and third lowest batting average (.229) in the NL.
Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe are candidates for better records when things start evening out. Both are 2-3, even though Hanson has a 3.21 ERA and Lowe's is 3.25 after five starts. The Braves are also 2-3 in their starts with Lowe at minus-149 against the line and Hanson at minus-220.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
The Athletics are giving up just 3.09 runs a game, best in the American League, while scoring 3.64. They should be 13-9 despite the lack of offense but are instead 11-11. The Athletics' offense ranks among the bottom half in the AL in all categories but its biggest weakness is a lack of power as their .354 slugging percentage is 12th in the 14-team league.
A resurgent Brandon McCarthy, back in top form after years of injuries, is the starter who figures to gain the most if the Athletics enjoy a market correction. He is only 1-1 but has an outstanding 2.10 ERA through four starts. The Athletics are just 1-3 in his starts and -216 against the line.
CINCINNATI REDS
The Reds should be 13-9 rather than 11-11 since they are averaging 5.18 runs a game and giving up 4.41. The rotation is missing injured Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey and it shows as the Reds have issued 80 walks this season, the third-highest total in the NL.
The pitching certainly hasn't been good but there is one starter who has pitched better than his record and figures to get some wins when things smooth out. That is Sam LeCure, who is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA but has an outstanding 17/4 strikeout/walk ratio. The Reds have gone 1-2 and minus-187 in his three starts.
Yet the ancient Greek philosopher, mathematician and religious leader can help us find some undervalued teams now that we're a little more than three weeks into the Major League Baseball season.
Pythagoras' greatest contribution to the world of mathematics was the Pythagorean theorem, which states that "in any right triangle, the area of the square whose side is the hypotenuse (the opposite the right angle) is equal to the sum of the areas of the squares whose sides are the two legs (the two sides that meet at the right angle)."
What does geometry have to do with baseball? Well, the sabermetricians, those who study the advanced metrics of baseball, believe that the Pythagorean theorem can help identify overachieving and underachieving teams.
The baseball version of the Pythagorean theorem uses the numbers of runs scored and allowed by a team to determine its expected record. The formula is to square the number of runs scored and divide it by the numbers of runs scored squared plus the number of runs allowed squared.
In other words, a team that scores 700 runs in a season and allows 700 runs in a season would be expected to finish exactly at .500 with an 81-81 record over a 162-game schedule. A team that scores 800 runs and allowed 600 runs would be expected to have a .640 winning percentage and a record of 104-58. Conversely, a team that scores 600 runs and allows 800 run would be expected to play at a .360 clip and finish 58-104.
There are four teams this season who have underperformed their Pythagorean records by two wins. The math says these teams are poised for a regression to the mean, stat talk for a market correction, and could be good plays if undervalued by the oddsmakers. Let's take a look at the four teams and some starting pitchers who would benefit from their teams' change of luck.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
The Cardinals are scoring 5.18 runs a game and allowing 3.77, which should be good for a 14-8 records. Instead, they are 12-10. Despite the inefficiency, the Cardinals are hitting a National League-best .327 with runners in scoring position and two outs but that has been mitigated by grounding into double plays in 19 percent of their plate appearances with a runner on first base and less than two outs, the worst figure in the league.
When the regression to the mean occurs, Chris Carpenter should benefit. The Cardinals have lost all five of his starts this season, even though his ERA of 3.90 is just 0.05 below the NL average. Furthermore, he has been the worst pitcher against the moneyline at minus-797.
ATLANTA BRAVES
The Braves' averages per game are 3.78 runs scored and 3.30 runs allowed, which should translate to a 13-10 record. Instead, they are a game under .500 at 11-12, though the regression seemed to start over the weekend when they swept a three-game series from the Giants in San Francisco. Still, the Braves have the second-worst on-base percentage (.302) and third lowest batting average (.229) in the NL.
Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe are candidates for better records when things start evening out. Both are 2-3, even though Hanson has a 3.21 ERA and Lowe's is 3.25 after five starts. The Braves are also 2-3 in their starts with Lowe at minus-149 against the line and Hanson at minus-220.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
The Athletics are giving up just 3.09 runs a game, best in the American League, while scoring 3.64. They should be 13-9 despite the lack of offense but are instead 11-11. The Athletics' offense ranks among the bottom half in the AL in all categories but its biggest weakness is a lack of power as their .354 slugging percentage is 12th in the 14-team league.
A resurgent Brandon McCarthy, back in top form after years of injuries, is the starter who figures to gain the most if the Athletics enjoy a market correction. He is only 1-1 but has an outstanding 2.10 ERA through four starts. The Athletics are just 1-3 in his starts and -216 against the line.
CINCINNATI REDS
The Reds should be 13-9 rather than 11-11 since they are averaging 5.18 runs a game and giving up 4.41. The rotation is missing injured Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey and it shows as the Reds have issued 80 walks this season, the third-highest total in the NL.
The pitching certainly hasn't been good but there is one starter who has pitched better than his record and figures to get some wins when things smooth out. That is Sam LeCure, who is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA but has an outstanding 17/4 strikeout/walk ratio. The Reds have gone 1-2 and minus-187 in his three starts.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Sunday Night MLB Preview: Reds (10-10) at Cardinals (11-9)
| Game: 3 |
| Venue: Busch Stadium |
| Date: April 24, 2011 8:05 PM EDT |
The Cincinnati Reds have not played well the last two weeks, but taking two of three in St. Louis could give them the boost they need. After rallying to even this weekend's three-game set against their division rival, the Reds try to win consecutive road games over the Cardinals for the first time in almost five years Sunday night. Plagued by a 2 hour and 10-minute rain delay Friday, Cincinnati (11-10) fell 4-2 in the series opener. The Reds trailed by a run Saturday when more rain halted play for 42 minutes, but they broke out after the delay for three runs in the eighth inning en route to a 5-3 win. |
Former Cardinal Miguel Cairo hit a two-out, two-run, go-ahead single off struggling St. Louis reliever Ryan Franklin to help snap the Cardinals' three-game winning streak. The Reds are now in position to win back-to-back games at Busch Stadium for the first since sweeping a three-game set June 5-7, 2006.
"Every win is a good win against St. Louis or against any team in the National League,' said Cairo, who had two different stints with the Cardinals. "You play the game to get a win.'
Cincinnati likely needs to build as much momentum as possible with a key early divisional series at Milwaukee following this contest.
Joey Votto added a two-run homer Saturday as the Reds improved to 6-10 since a 5-0 start. Batting .392, the reigning NL MVP has two homers and four RBIs in his last four games. He's a lifetime .328 hitter at Busch.
Votto and the Reds hope to continue Jake Westbrook's struggles when he takes the ball for the Cardinals (11-10) in the series finale.
For the third time in his career and first since 2001, Westbrook (1-2, 9.82 ERA) will pitch on three days' rest. The right-hander allowed seven runs in three innings of an 8-6 loss to Washington in the first game of a doubleheader Wednesday. He threw 68 pitches.
"I'm excited to get back out there again," Westbrook told the Cardinals' official website. "Every time as a starter, good or bad, you want to get back out there. You want to get back out there to try to correct yourself and get another opportunity to get back on track."
Westbrook, who has 13 walks and just nine strikeouts in 18 1-3 innings this season, is 7-18 lifetime in April.
"It's been frustrating," he said. "It's kind of something that I need to figure out and do a better job on. I'm not going to give up on anything."
Westbrook is 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA in four starts versus Cincinnati.
Teammate Albert Pujols has six of his seven homers in his last nine games, including a solo shot Saturday. He also has 11 RBIs in his last nine contests.
Veteran slugger Lance Berkman is 8 for 14 in his last four games, raising his average to .368 in his first season with St. Louis.
Though right-hander Sam LeCure (0-1, 4.15) has been scheduled to start Sunday for Cincinnati, manager Dusty Baker could decide instead to go with Edinson Volquez, who wound up not starting after Friday's rain delay.
Volquez is 2-0 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts this season, and 1-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four lifetime versus St. Louis.
LeCure allowed three runs and walked four in 5 1-3 innings of a 4-1 loss in his only previous appearance against the Cardinals on June 2. The right-hander gave up five runs and a career-high four homers in 5 1-3 innings of a 5-4 defeat to Arizona on Tuesday.
MLB's surprise starts: How do you know they're for real?
One of the absolute beauties of early-season baseball is there is no telling what can happen.
Teams that are supposed to be good at the start of the season aren’t and have turmoil right from the beginning. And other clubs, which were supposed to be eliminated from contention right after opening day, are leading the division or close to it.
Take the American League Central, which appears to be upside down. At the top are Cleveland and Kansas City, while the three preseason contenders for the division crown, Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota, are languishing below .500.
But some baseball bettors are skeptical of starts like this. We dig in, trying to find out if teams like the Indians and Royals are for real and when that fact is no longer considered fiction.
Finding where success starts
Both teams have enjoyed manageable schedules, as Cleveland is in the midst of playing 22 of their first 34 games against opponents that were below .500 last season and Kansas City is playing only 11 of its initial 31 contests versus team’s that were above the breakeven point.
With the opposition having similar abilities, an uptick in play has permitted each team to get off to a fast start. Indians and Royals hitters have taken advantage of this opportunity and been in the top four in runs scored in the American League all month.
Another key stat that goes somewhat unnoticed is run prevention. Last season, Cleveland was 13th in walks allowed and Kansas City was 11th, giving the opposing team more chances to score. To date, both teams have improved in this category and are middle of the pack in walks conceded and runs allowed are noticeably down.
The Indians pitching staff as a group is also performing well in two other areas that tell a story not often looked at, but are tied together. Tribe hurlers have permitted the fewest total bases in the American League and are third in on-base percentage allowed. This helps keep the offense in the contest and doesn’t keep the pressure on them to feel they have to score runs in bunches to stay in any game.
Though this makes good copy on the shores of Lake Erie and in barbeque country, it doesn’t necessarily mean the Indians and Royals are truly AL Central contenders.
Determining market value
Covers Expert Steve Merril believes the two biggest surprises in the American League were undervalued coming into the season, but doesn’t expect them to run away with the division.
“I still do not think they are the best teams in the division and will probably have a correction at some point this season and fall closer to the .500 level or below,” says Merril.
Since 1999, teams that won 60 percent or more of their games in April went on to win 87 times (53.7 percent) or more that season, 50 of the 76 occasions in which this occurred.
While it would appear easy to dismiss the Indians and the Royals based on lack of previous accomplishments, in recent years we have had teams come out of nowhere with shocking results.
Last season, the San Diego Padres preseason win total was 74, but a 15-8 opening month gave them confidence and they went on to win 90 games and just missed the playoffs.
One year after finishing 71-91, Detroit was 16-9 in April of 2006, which transformed into winning 95 games and the Tigers made a Fall Classic appearance. The 2005 Chicago White Sox were one year removed from an 83-win campaign and used a 17-7 start of the season to propel them to a 99-63 record and World Series championship.
Slow down, it's a long season
Each year there are clubs that have impressive starts or stumble leaving the gate. Oddsmakers are careful not to overreact to these surprise outcomes, especially during the marathon-like baseball season.
“Our preseason futures were posted at the odds they were for a reason,” says an oddsmaker for Sports Interaction. “This is not to say that a team could be better or worse than we predicted – that happens all the time. We consider these streaks part of the game. We will look at some of these teams a bit later in the season and see where they stand before we adjust.”
The best way to treat these April success stories is to wager on their games while they’re hot and avoid diving into the futures odds just yet. Sportsbooks aren’t going to react right away and you don’t have to either.
If they close the month playing .600 or better, roughly two-thirds of the time these clubs will be chasing a playoff berth come September and should be an above-average wager.
Teams that are supposed to be good at the start of the season aren’t and have turmoil right from the beginning. And other clubs, which were supposed to be eliminated from contention right after opening day, are leading the division or close to it.
Take the American League Central, which appears to be upside down. At the top are Cleveland and Kansas City, while the three preseason contenders for the division crown, Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota, are languishing below .500.
But some baseball bettors are skeptical of starts like this. We dig in, trying to find out if teams like the Indians and Royals are for real and when that fact is no longer considered fiction.
Finding where success starts
Both teams have enjoyed manageable schedules, as Cleveland is in the midst of playing 22 of their first 34 games against opponents that were below .500 last season and Kansas City is playing only 11 of its initial 31 contests versus team’s that were above the breakeven point.
With the opposition having similar abilities, an uptick in play has permitted each team to get off to a fast start. Indians and Royals hitters have taken advantage of this opportunity and been in the top four in runs scored in the American League all month.
Another key stat that goes somewhat unnoticed is run prevention. Last season, Cleveland was 13th in walks allowed and Kansas City was 11th, giving the opposing team more chances to score. To date, both teams have improved in this category and are middle of the pack in walks conceded and runs allowed are noticeably down.
The Indians pitching staff as a group is also performing well in two other areas that tell a story not often looked at, but are tied together. Tribe hurlers have permitted the fewest total bases in the American League and are third in on-base percentage allowed. This helps keep the offense in the contest and doesn’t keep the pressure on them to feel they have to score runs in bunches to stay in any game.
Though this makes good copy on the shores of Lake Erie and in barbeque country, it doesn’t necessarily mean the Indians and Royals are truly AL Central contenders.
Determining market value
Covers Expert Steve Merril believes the two biggest surprises in the American League were undervalued coming into the season, but doesn’t expect them to run away with the division.
“I still do not think they are the best teams in the division and will probably have a correction at some point this season and fall closer to the .500 level or below,” says Merril.
Since 1999, teams that won 60 percent or more of their games in April went on to win 87 times (53.7 percent) or more that season, 50 of the 76 occasions in which this occurred.
While it would appear easy to dismiss the Indians and the Royals based on lack of previous accomplishments, in recent years we have had teams come out of nowhere with shocking results.
Last season, the San Diego Padres preseason win total was 74, but a 15-8 opening month gave them confidence and they went on to win 90 games and just missed the playoffs.
One year after finishing 71-91, Detroit was 16-9 in April of 2006, which transformed into winning 95 games and the Tigers made a Fall Classic appearance. The 2005 Chicago White Sox were one year removed from an 83-win campaign and used a 17-7 start of the season to propel them to a 99-63 record and World Series championship.
Slow down, it's a long season
Each year there are clubs that have impressive starts or stumble leaving the gate. Oddsmakers are careful not to overreact to these surprise outcomes, especially during the marathon-like baseball season.
“Our preseason futures were posted at the odds they were for a reason,” says an oddsmaker for Sports Interaction. “This is not to say that a team could be better or worse than we predicted – that happens all the time. We consider these streaks part of the game. We will look at some of these teams a bit later in the season and see where they stand before we adjust.”
The best way to treat these April success stories is to wager on their games while they’re hot and avoid diving into the futures odds just yet. Sportsbooks aren’t going to react right away and you don’t have to either.
If they close the month playing .600 or better, roughly two-thirds of the time these clubs will be chasing a playoff berth come September and should be an above-average wager.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Gambling's future inside the White House
In the last presidential election it was well-known in the gambling community that John McCain was a hardcore craps player and Barack Obama preferred private poker games. If form holds next year, the Republicans will probably nominate Mitt Romney, and getting a handle on what Romney really thinks about gambling isn’t all that easy.
When Romney ran for Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat in 1994, he advocated allowing the state to expand gambling with new casinos and slot parlors. And almost a decade later, Romney as governor proposed allowing slot parlors in an effort to helped eradicate a $3 billion deficit.
A few years later, however, Romney – who has switched his position on a variety of issues – did a 180 on gambling, telling the Boston Globe, ''If someone were to bring forward a proposal (in the Legislature) it is not something I would support given our economic circumstances and the social costs associated with gaming."
The Globe detailed Romney’s inconsistency on the issue and noted that Romney had shown an interest in running for president and had been read the riot act by anti-gambling interests in several key primary states, especially Iowa. Support gambling in Massachusetts, they said, and we will not support you. At the time Romney was desperate to curry favor with social conservatives, who were already suspicious of both his policies and his Mormon religion, and he was in no mood to cross them.
Faced with the prospect of having to override a potential Romney veto, gambling supporters in Massachusetts shrugged and dropped the issue. With a new governor, gambling supporter Deval Patrick, now in office, prospects are brighter for new casino legislation that is expected to be filed in the next month.
At this point it appears that Romney has few core principles, and if he is able to knock off President Obama, no one has an inkling of how he would deal with the issue of legalizing gambling. Then again, who would have thought that Obama would sanction last Friday’s action by his Department of Justice?
-- Unions in the United States are under siege, but an Atlantic City casino has reached a unique agreement with unionized workers to complete the new Revel project. Revel Entertainment Group recently received $1.5 billion in funding to complete the project, and has re-hired some 2,000 construction workers. All of the workers must be recommended by one of 22 local trade unions, and in exchange the unions have guaranteed labor peace [i.e., no strikes] throughout the duration even if there are disputes with Revel. With the economy still struggling, construction worker unemployment in the Atlantic City area is almost 40 percent. Several thousand full-time casin/hotel workers are expected to be hired when the project is completed, in about a year.
-- Bradley Franzen, one of the 11 persons arrested and charged by the Dept. of Justice on Black Friday, has pleaded not guilty. Franzen says the government lied to the banks about the nature of financial transactions with online poker sites. He was released on $200,000 bond, secured by his parents’ home.
-- Update on the Sahara in Las Vegas. The tired Vegas icon is bleeding money and will close its doors on May 16. There was uncertainty about whether it would be razed or renovated, but owner Sam Nazarian says that he still plans a complete makeover into a hot spot for young visitors and hopes that it will be the centerpiece of a newly energized North Strip.
-- Hawaiian beach during the day, casino at night. Seems like a perfect vacation for gamblers. But it’s not going to happen anytime soon. Last Friday was the deadline for enabling legislation to make it to the governor’s desk, and lawmakers took a pass on it. So Hawaii will for now remain one of two [Utah is the other] states without any form of gambling. The bill would have allowed online poker and companies would have been charged fees to locate their servers in the state.
-- If New Jersey voters could wave a magic wand, sports betting would be allowed at the state’s casinos and horse tracks. That’s the result, anyway, of a recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, which found that by a margin of 53 percent voters are fine with wagering on sports. The issue will be on the ballot in November, which means that New Jersey would be ready if and when the federal government lifts the ban on betting on sports. The public opinion tide is running the right direction – a full 78 percent of young voters (18-34) in New Jersey would vote in favor.
-- Britain’s largest bookmaker, William Hill, is dipping its toes into the American market. William Hill announced a few days ago that it will pay $18 million to purchase Nevada-based American Wagering Inc. and another $21 million for Cal Neva, which operates 26 sports books in Nevada.
-- Bodog is still taking on U.S. poker players, and even offering bonuses to lure anyone who is looking for a landing spot since last Friday’s action took down Poker Stars, Full Tilt and Absolute. Bodog reports that play is up dramatically since last weekend. As always, caution is advised.
-- The last word belongs to Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank, a longtime supporter of legalized gambling. Frank is obviously disgusted with the government’s crackdown on online poker: “What an incredible waste of resources,” Frank said. “Go after the people responsible for empty houses, not full houses. I’m not saying violate the law but to give this priority in law enforcement over some other things I think is a terrible idea and I think the administration is wrong on this.”
When Romney ran for Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat in 1994, he advocated allowing the state to expand gambling with new casinos and slot parlors. And almost a decade later, Romney as governor proposed allowing slot parlors in an effort to helped eradicate a $3 billion deficit.
A few years later, however, Romney – who has switched his position on a variety of issues – did a 180 on gambling, telling the Boston Globe, ''If someone were to bring forward a proposal (in the Legislature) it is not something I would support given our economic circumstances and the social costs associated with gaming."
The Globe detailed Romney’s inconsistency on the issue and noted that Romney had shown an interest in running for president and had been read the riot act by anti-gambling interests in several key primary states, especially Iowa. Support gambling in Massachusetts, they said, and we will not support you. At the time Romney was desperate to curry favor with social conservatives, who were already suspicious of both his policies and his Mormon religion, and he was in no mood to cross them.
Faced with the prospect of having to override a potential Romney veto, gambling supporters in Massachusetts shrugged and dropped the issue. With a new governor, gambling supporter Deval Patrick, now in office, prospects are brighter for new casino legislation that is expected to be filed in the next month.
At this point it appears that Romney has few core principles, and if he is able to knock off President Obama, no one has an inkling of how he would deal with the issue of legalizing gambling. Then again, who would have thought that Obama would sanction last Friday’s action by his Department of Justice?
-- Unions in the United States are under siege, but an Atlantic City casino has reached a unique agreement with unionized workers to complete the new Revel project. Revel Entertainment Group recently received $1.5 billion in funding to complete the project, and has re-hired some 2,000 construction workers. All of the workers must be recommended by one of 22 local trade unions, and in exchange the unions have guaranteed labor peace [i.e., no strikes] throughout the duration even if there are disputes with Revel. With the economy still struggling, construction worker unemployment in the Atlantic City area is almost 40 percent. Several thousand full-time casin/hotel workers are expected to be hired when the project is completed, in about a year.
-- Bradley Franzen, one of the 11 persons arrested and charged by the Dept. of Justice on Black Friday, has pleaded not guilty. Franzen says the government lied to the banks about the nature of financial transactions with online poker sites. He was released on $200,000 bond, secured by his parents’ home.
-- Update on the Sahara in Las Vegas. The tired Vegas icon is bleeding money and will close its doors on May 16. There was uncertainty about whether it would be razed or renovated, but owner Sam Nazarian says that he still plans a complete makeover into a hot spot for young visitors and hopes that it will be the centerpiece of a newly energized North Strip.
-- Hawaiian beach during the day, casino at night. Seems like a perfect vacation for gamblers. But it’s not going to happen anytime soon. Last Friday was the deadline for enabling legislation to make it to the governor’s desk, and lawmakers took a pass on it. So Hawaii will for now remain one of two [Utah is the other] states without any form of gambling. The bill would have allowed online poker and companies would have been charged fees to locate their servers in the state.
-- If New Jersey voters could wave a magic wand, sports betting would be allowed at the state’s casinos and horse tracks. That’s the result, anyway, of a recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, which found that by a margin of 53 percent voters are fine with wagering on sports. The issue will be on the ballot in November, which means that New Jersey would be ready if and when the federal government lifts the ban on betting on sports. The public opinion tide is running the right direction – a full 78 percent of young voters (18-34) in New Jersey would vote in favor.
-- Britain’s largest bookmaker, William Hill, is dipping its toes into the American market. William Hill announced a few days ago that it will pay $18 million to purchase Nevada-based American Wagering Inc. and another $21 million for Cal Neva, which operates 26 sports books in Nevada.
-- Bodog is still taking on U.S. poker players, and even offering bonuses to lure anyone who is looking for a landing spot since last Friday’s action took down Poker Stars, Full Tilt and Absolute. Bodog reports that play is up dramatically since last weekend. As always, caution is advised.
-- The last word belongs to Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank, a longtime supporter of legalized gambling. Frank is obviously disgusted with the government’s crackdown on online poker: “What an incredible waste of resources,” Frank said. “Go after the people responsible for empty houses, not full houses. I’m not saying violate the law but to give this priority in law enforcement over some other things I think is a terrible idea and I think the administration is wrong on this.”
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Rounding the bases: This week's MLB betting trends
HOT TEAM: Cleveland Indians
THIS SEASON: 12-4
LAST WEEK: 4-2
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At Kansas City for four, at Minnesota for three.
THE SKINNY: So much for first impressions. If you closed the book on the Indians after they allowed 23 runs in the first two games of the year, both losses to the White Sox, then you’ve missed out on a hot ticket.
The Tribe just mopped up Baltimore, sweeping a three-game series, and went into Kansas City Monday night in first place in the AL Central and took a 7-3 win in extras. Who knows how long it will last? But the offense should always be there, and outfielder Grady Sizemore was activated Sunday, which only adds to the big bats.
They’re still the Indians, but that’s a good thing. It keeps their prices down and only adds to your early-season bargain buys. Consider riding the Indians for a few more weeks before reality sets in.
COLD TEAM: Baltimore Orioles
THIS SEASON: 6-9
LAST WEEK: 0-5
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to Minnesota for four, home to the New York Yankees for three.
THE SKINNY: The only thing that kept the Orioles from a 0-6 week was a rainout at the Yankees Tuesday. It was that bad for Baltimore and it just goes to show you how misleading the first week of the season can be.
This is a team opened 4-0 and people already had Buck Showalter lined up for the Manager of the Year award. Well, that quieted in a hurry. The Orioles have no regulars batting over .259, and have a combined team ERA of 4.58. That’s not going to strike a chord with many smart bettors, unless you plan on fading them. Which, come to think of it, might not be a bad idea for the rest of the month.
OVER TEAM: Colorado Rockies
O/U THIS SEASON: 11-4-1
O/U LAST WEEK: 6-1
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to San Francisco for three, at Florida for three.
THE SKINNY: Long gone are the rock ‘em, sock ‘em Rockies, with the Dante Bichettes and the Andres Galarragas of the world. This current group is different, but equally as potent. They hit with you more precision than power and if you like overs, this might be your team long-term.
It starts with Troy Tulowitzki and his amazing April numbers, including seven home runs and 14 RBIs. But his cast is like the Energizer Bunny. It keeps going and going. You’ve got Carlos Gonzalez (12 RBIs), Seth Smith (seven doubles), Todd Helton (.366 average), and Jonathan Herrera (four stolen bases). And when you get to the deep end of the bench, you even have guys like Jason Giambi sitting there. Not a bad option.
This team is built to score runs, still has the ballpark to do it in, and might just be one of the best over buys in recent memory. Take advantage.
UNDER TEAM: Atlanta Braves
O/U THIS SEASON: 5-11-1
O/U LAST WEEK: 1-5
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At Los Angeles for four, at San Francisco for three.
THE SKINNY: The Braves had trouble generating offense last week versus the Marlins and Mets, and perhaps more of that is in store this week after losing 4-2 to the Dodgers Monday. They have to travel across the country and take on the pitching-heavy Dodgers and Giants, whch seems like a recipe for some more unders.
The pitching has been great for Atlanta. Derek Lowe has two wins, a 1.82 ERA and 19 strikeouts. Tim Hudson has two wins and a 4.05 ERA. And the bullpen has been adequate.
Offensively, they have some pop with two players sitting at three home runs and Jason Heyward at four, but they’re not driving a bunch in (Chipper Jones is the only Brave with double-digit RBIs). And until they do, they are an under buy.
THIS SEASON: 12-4
LAST WEEK: 4-2
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At Kansas City for four, at Minnesota for three.
THE SKINNY: So much for first impressions. If you closed the book on the Indians after they allowed 23 runs in the first two games of the year, both losses to the White Sox, then you’ve missed out on a hot ticket.
The Tribe just mopped up Baltimore, sweeping a three-game series, and went into Kansas City Monday night in first place in the AL Central and took a 7-3 win in extras. Who knows how long it will last? But the offense should always be there, and outfielder Grady Sizemore was activated Sunday, which only adds to the big bats.
They’re still the Indians, but that’s a good thing. It keeps their prices down and only adds to your early-season bargain buys. Consider riding the Indians for a few more weeks before reality sets in.
COLD TEAM: Baltimore Orioles
THIS SEASON: 6-9
LAST WEEK: 0-5
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to Minnesota for four, home to the New York Yankees for three.
THE SKINNY: The only thing that kept the Orioles from a 0-6 week was a rainout at the Yankees Tuesday. It was that bad for Baltimore and it just goes to show you how misleading the first week of the season can be.
This is a team opened 4-0 and people already had Buck Showalter lined up for the Manager of the Year award. Well, that quieted in a hurry. The Orioles have no regulars batting over .259, and have a combined team ERA of 4.58. That’s not going to strike a chord with many smart bettors, unless you plan on fading them. Which, come to think of it, might not be a bad idea for the rest of the month.
OVER TEAM: Colorado Rockies
O/U THIS SEASON: 11-4-1
O/U LAST WEEK: 6-1
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to San Francisco for three, at Florida for three.
THE SKINNY: Long gone are the rock ‘em, sock ‘em Rockies, with the Dante Bichettes and the Andres Galarragas of the world. This current group is different, but equally as potent. They hit with you more precision than power and if you like overs, this might be your team long-term.
It starts with Troy Tulowitzki and his amazing April numbers, including seven home runs and 14 RBIs. But his cast is like the Energizer Bunny. It keeps going and going. You’ve got Carlos Gonzalez (12 RBIs), Seth Smith (seven doubles), Todd Helton (.366 average), and Jonathan Herrera (four stolen bases). And when you get to the deep end of the bench, you even have guys like Jason Giambi sitting there. Not a bad option.
This team is built to score runs, still has the ballpark to do it in, and might just be one of the best over buys in recent memory. Take advantage.
UNDER TEAM: Atlanta Braves
O/U THIS SEASON: 5-11-1
O/U LAST WEEK: 1-5
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At Los Angeles for four, at San Francisco for three.
THE SKINNY: The Braves had trouble generating offense last week versus the Marlins and Mets, and perhaps more of that is in store this week after losing 4-2 to the Dodgers Monday. They have to travel across the country and take on the pitching-heavy Dodgers and Giants, whch seems like a recipe for some more unders.
The pitching has been great for Atlanta. Derek Lowe has two wins, a 1.82 ERA and 19 strikeouts. Tim Hudson has two wins and a 4.05 ERA. And the bullpen has been adequate.
Offensively, they have some pop with two players sitting at three home runs and Jason Heyward at four, but they’re not driving a bunch in (Chipper Jones is the only Brave with double-digit RBIs). And until they do, they are an under buy.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Handicapping MLB hurlers off to lucrative starts
Brian Duensing (+4.16 units), Minnesota Twins
Baseball’s most profitable starter spent most of his time as a reliever during his first two Major League seasons.
If Duensing keeps pitching like he has, though, he’ll never come out of the bullpen again.
Minnesota has won all three of Duensing’s starts, including road victories over Tampa Bay as a +126 underdog and New York as a +190 dog. In 25 career starts, Duensing has allowed three runs or fewer in 20 of them. His overall record as a starter is 13-3.
That kind of consistency combined with the value you’ll be getting on Duensing makes him an attractive pitcher to bet on as the season progresses.
Pick: Buy
Bruce Chen (+3.54 units), Kansas City Royals
Chen is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (walks + hits per inning), so he deserves credit for getting off to a strong start. But three games shouldn’t be enough to make you forget about his mostly lousy career and his lifetime 4.59 ERA.
Also, it’s unlikely the Royals will continue to give Chen the type of run support he’s enjoyed so far. Of KC’s AL-best 82 runs scored, 20 of them have come in Chen’s three starts.
Eventually, Chen will revert to what he’s always been, a below average pitcher, and the Royals will once again provide him with below average run support.
Pick: Sell
Kyle McClellan (+3.41 units), St. Louis Cardinals
A season-ending injury to Adam Wainwright in February opened a spot in the starting rotation for McClellan, who spent the last three years in the bullpen.
McClellan has held his own so far, posting a 1.89 ERA in three starts, all Cardinals wins.
Some relievers don’t transition well to the starting rotation, but the Cardinals have always believed McClellan could make the jump. Wainwright, in fact, made the same move in 2007 and did so after just a year in the pen.
McClellan has been one of the better under-the-radar set-up men and the hope here is that he continues to go unnoticed as a starter.
Pick: Buy
Aaron Harang (+3.15 units), San Diego Padres
No pitcher will benefit more from a change in venue than Harang, who has spent the majority of his career playing his home games at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Harang gave up 75 home runs over the last three years as a member of the Reds, including a career-high 35 in 2008.
But now that he’s in San Diego playing at roomy PETCO Park, Harang should see his numbers (5.32 ERA last year) improve. He is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP through three starts and has yet to allow a home run.
Harang will be one of the better value pitchers at home this season and should give the Padres a chance to win the majority of his starts if he stays healthy.
Pick: Buy
A.J. Burnett (+3.00 units), New York Yankees
Burnett has been a -142 favorite or more in all three of his starts this year, but it’s still surprising to see him as one of the top money earners.
That’s because Burnett (3-0) routinely lost as a heavy favorite last year and dropped a league-worst 15.68 units.
Don’t be fooled by a strong April start. Burnett had a 2.43 ERA in five April starts last year and the Yankees went 4-1 in those games.
Then Burnett imploded, allowing six or more runs in 10 of his final 27 starts before finishing with a career-high 5.26 ERA.
With the amount of juice Burnett will be laying, he should be a great fade all season long.
Pick: Sell
Saturday, April 16, 2011
NBA Western Conference Playoffs: Series odds and picks
Series odds: Spurs -360, Grizzlies +290
Don't be fooled by how tough the Grizzlies appeared to have played the Spurs during the regular season. While the teams did split four meetings, both of Memphis' victories came in March, and we know how San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich loves giving his starters plenty of rest down the stretch.
Memphis does have enough weapons to stay in games, but with Rudy Gay out with a dislocated shoulder, the depth simply isn't there. Even with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph matching up favorably in the frontcourt, the Grizzlies will likely struggle at containing a San Antonio offense that ranked among the league's best all season long.
The Spurs' core of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili (questionable for Game 1 with an elbow injury) and Tony Parker may not have the spring in its collective step of years gone by, but the trio should do more than enough to dispatch the up-and-coming Grizzlies.
Season series: Tied 2-2
Pick: Spurs in five games
Los Angeles Lakers (2) vs. New Orleans Hornets (7)
Series odds: Lakers -2,100, Hornets +1,280
This best-of-seven would have been enough of a challenge for the Hornets, even with a healthy David West. Now that he's out for the rest of the year, the Hornets could face a quick exit at the hands of the defending champs.
While Chris Paul provides a matchup problem for the Lakers at point guard, Los Angeles has a decided advantage everywhere else. This is particularly true up front, where even a banged-up Andrew Bynum should have the edge over New Orleans' Emeka Okafor.
Add in Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol to anchor the offense, Ron Artest to lock things down on defense and Lamar Odom and Matt Barnes providing great bench versatility, and it's clear the boys from Tinseltown will be tough to beat.
Season series: Lakers won 4-0
Pick: Lakers in five games
Dallas Mavericks (3) at Portland Trail Blazers (6)
Series odds: Mavericks -200, Trail Blazers +170
The Mavericks and Trail Blazers engaged in a gritty season series in which each team won twice and none of the games were decided by more than eight points. Star forward Dirk Nowitzki is the key to Dallas' fortunes, but he's going to need some help if the Mavs want to see Round 2.
With Caron Butler (knee) not expected back until the second round of the playoffs, the burden of supporting role continues to fall on sixth man Jason Terry. He averaged just 12.3 points on 42 percent shooting against Portland this season, and will need to be significantly better.
The Trail Blazers wanted this series because they feel they match up well against Dallas. That may be true, but Portland doesn't have a player like Nowitzki on its team. If Terry can shoulder more of the load, Nowitzki's propensity for hitting big shots at pivotal moments could be the difference in what should be a closely-contested tilt.
Season series: Tied 2-2
Pick: Mavericks in seven games
Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Denver Nuggets (5)
Series odds: Thunder -200, Nuggets +170
Oklahoma City fired the first two salvos earlier this month by beating the Nuggets twice in a four-day span. And while the playoffs represent a do-over for the retooled Nuggets, it's impossible to ignore just how good the Thunder looked in the home-and-home engagement.
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have flourished in the spotlight, combining for nearly 50 points per game while presenting matchup nightmares on a regular basis. The addition of center Kendrick Perkins has given the Thunder some much-needed bulk up front, a factor many felt was missing from the Oklahoma City roster.
The Nuggets have played remarkably well since trading Carmelo Anthony, still putting up points at a breakneck pace. But the Thunder can score right along with them, while playing better defense and possessing the best player in the series in Durant. This one should be OKC's to lose.
Season series: Thunder won 3-1
Pick: Thunder in six games
Friday, April 15, 2011
What will poker crackdown mean for online sports betting?
Online gaming companies with U.S. customers, including offshore sportsbooks, are paying close attention to the federal crackdown on major poker sites announced Friday.
"Any U.S.-facing online gaming or betting enterprise is watching this with great interest," Toronto-based gaming attorney Stuart Hoegner told Covers.com late Friday afternoon.
He said it was too soon to gauge the effect on sports wagering.
However, many U.S. residents fund their online poker and sports betting accounts the same way.
Banking transactions are at the heart of the indictments handed down. The government alleges the poker firms used fraudulent methods to circumvent the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, tricking financial institutions into processing payments on their behalf.
The U.S. attorney for the southern district of New York indicted 11 people associated with PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker and Absolute Poker, the three largest online poker companies operating in the United States.
Charges include bank fraud, money laundering and illegal gambling.
"These defendants, knowing full well that their business with US customers and US banks was illegal, tried to stack the deck," FBI assistant director Janice Fedarcyk said in a statement. "They lied to banks about the true nature of their business. Then, some of the defendants found banks willing to flout the law for a fee.
"The defendants bet the house they could continue their scheme, and they lost."
Hoegner told Covers.com the indictments detail specific mechanisms used by the poker companies "to fund their sites and carry on their business, and I don't know if those same mechanisms were in place" at offshore sportsbooks.
"That said, if they were in place, there's nothing conceptually that would bar sportsbooks from being caught up in the same thing."
In addition to the indictments, authorities issued restraining orders against 76 bank accounts in 14 countries used by the firms and their payment processors.
Former U.S. Sen. Alfonse D’Amato, chairman of the Poker Players Alliance (PPA), the leading poker grassroots advocacy group with more than one million members nationwide, had this reaction to the federal action taken Friday:
“On behalf of the millions of poker players across the country, we are shocked at the action taken by the U.S. Department of Justice today against online poker companies and will continue to fight for Americans’ right to participate in the game they enjoy. Online poker is not a crime and should not be treated as such. We are currently gathering all of the information around today’s announcement and will offer detailed analysis when the full facts become available.”
"Any U.S.-facing online gaming or betting enterprise is watching this with great interest," Toronto-based gaming attorney Stuart Hoegner told Covers.com late Friday afternoon.
He said it was too soon to gauge the effect on sports wagering.
However, many U.S. residents fund their online poker and sports betting accounts the same way.
Banking transactions are at the heart of the indictments handed down. The government alleges the poker firms used fraudulent methods to circumvent the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, tricking financial institutions into processing payments on their behalf.
The U.S. attorney for the southern district of New York indicted 11 people associated with PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker and Absolute Poker, the three largest online poker companies operating in the United States.
Charges include bank fraud, money laundering and illegal gambling.
"These defendants, knowing full well that their business with US customers and US banks was illegal, tried to stack the deck," FBI assistant director Janice Fedarcyk said in a statement. "They lied to banks about the true nature of their business. Then, some of the defendants found banks willing to flout the law for a fee.
"The defendants bet the house they could continue their scheme, and they lost."
Hoegner told Covers.com the indictments detail specific mechanisms used by the poker companies "to fund their sites and carry on their business, and I don't know if those same mechanisms were in place" at offshore sportsbooks.
"That said, if they were in place, there's nothing conceptually that would bar sportsbooks from being caught up in the same thing."
In addition to the indictments, authorities issued restraining orders against 76 bank accounts in 14 countries used by the firms and their payment processors.
Former U.S. Sen. Alfonse D’Amato, chairman of the Poker Players Alliance (PPA), the leading poker grassroots advocacy group with more than one million members nationwide, had this reaction to the federal action taken Friday:
“On behalf of the millions of poker players across the country, we are shocked at the action taken by the U.S. Department of Justice today against online poker companies and will continue to fight for Americans’ right to participate in the game they enjoy. Online poker is not a crime and should not be treated as such. We are currently gathering all of the information around today’s announcement and will offer detailed analysis when the full facts become available.”
Thursday, April 14, 2011
NBA betting scandal: Q&A with new book's author
The Tim Donaghy betting scandal had been accumulating a little rust, but got back in the limelight with the recent release of a new book which delves into the issue in detail. Written by Penn State Abington professor Sean Patrick Griffin, it profiles gambler Jimmy Battista, Battista’s long relationship with Donaghy and exactly how the referee wagered on NBA games that he officiated.
The book is entitled Gaming the Game, with the subtitle The Story Behind the NBA Betting Scandal and Gambler Who Made it Happen. It’s particularly noteworthy today as the NBA playoffs are about to get under way.
Covers.com spoke with Griffin, and the author answered 10 keys questions about the scandal and its aftermath:
You’ve written about the Philadelphia mob in another book. How do the gritty gamblers you dealt with in the Donaghy book compare to the mob guys?
It is tough to generalize, of course, but the one thing that strikes you about the white-collar pro gamblers is their unreal work ethic. The crowd I researched for Gaming the Game (including Jimmy Battista) is notorious for its long business hours at the expense of all sorts of things such as time with their families.
Far from the glamorous lifestyle one might expect, especially since much activity predictably takes place in Las Vegas, what you find instead are men who are prisoners to their computers, flat screen TVs, and cell phones.
Have you read Tim Donaghy’s book and did it motivate or influence you to write your own book?
Yes, I have read his book many times (for various purposes). Regarding the second part of your question, however, no. The research for what ultimately became Gaming the Game began in March 2008, long before Donaghy’s book was released in December 2009. This is why I was able to so quickly discredit much of what Donaghy writes and says; I was more than a year-and-a-half into the project by the time his latest claims became known.
Also don’t forget that the NBA betting scandal only accounts for about half of Gaming the Game; the rest examines the world’s most consequential sports gamblers and how that underworld operates (i.e., manipulation of betting lines, millions of dollars being wagered – how, where, and why, the obtaining and trading of inside information as currency, etc.).
Did you begin the project with any preconceived notions about gambling and were they corroborated or altered?
Not really. I’m not a gambler, myself, but I have friends who are and I am huge sports fan, so I’ve always been keenly aware of the gambling aspect of things. My research agenda is largely focused on organized crime, which necessarily entails sports bookmaking and betting.
Despite all of this, so little has been written about big-time pro gamblers – the ones who bet on sports for a living, manipulate lines, and who bet in such large sums each day that sportsbooks in Vegas and offshore pay quite serious attention to their activities – that there was little to corroborate in the first place.
The main source in the book is Jimmy Battista, and you say that you conducted painstaking research to verify the information that he gave you. Did he tell you anything (of significance) that didn’t check out?
The book is entitled Gaming the Game, with the subtitle The Story Behind the NBA Betting Scandal and Gambler Who Made it Happen. It’s particularly noteworthy today as the NBA playoffs are about to get under way.
Covers.com spoke with Griffin, and the author answered 10 keys questions about the scandal and its aftermath:
You’ve written about the Philadelphia mob in another book. How do the gritty gamblers you dealt with in the Donaghy book compare to the mob guys?
It is tough to generalize, of course, but the one thing that strikes you about the white-collar pro gamblers is their unreal work ethic. The crowd I researched for Gaming the Game (including Jimmy Battista) is notorious for its long business hours at the expense of all sorts of things such as time with their families.
Far from the glamorous lifestyle one might expect, especially since much activity predictably takes place in Las Vegas, what you find instead are men who are prisoners to their computers, flat screen TVs, and cell phones.
Have you read Tim Donaghy’s book and did it motivate or influence you to write your own book?
Yes, I have read his book many times (for various purposes). Regarding the second part of your question, however, no. The research for what ultimately became Gaming the Game began in March 2008, long before Donaghy’s book was released in December 2009. This is why I was able to so quickly discredit much of what Donaghy writes and says; I was more than a year-and-a-half into the project by the time his latest claims became known.
Also don’t forget that the NBA betting scandal only accounts for about half of Gaming the Game; the rest examines the world’s most consequential sports gamblers and how that underworld operates (i.e., manipulation of betting lines, millions of dollars being wagered – how, where, and why, the obtaining and trading of inside information as currency, etc.).
Did you begin the project with any preconceived notions about gambling and were they corroborated or altered?
Not really. I’m not a gambler, myself, but I have friends who are and I am huge sports fan, so I’ve always been keenly aware of the gambling aspect of things. My research agenda is largely focused on organized crime, which necessarily entails sports bookmaking and betting.
Despite all of this, so little has been written about big-time pro gamblers – the ones who bet on sports for a living, manipulate lines, and who bet in such large sums each day that sportsbooks in Vegas and offshore pay quite serious attention to their activities – that there was little to corroborate in the first place.
The main source in the book is Jimmy Battista, and you say that you conducted painstaking research to verify the information that he gave you. Did he tell you anything (of significance) that didn’t check out?
NBA opening round betting trends and theories
With help from our trusted database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991.
Here’s what the machine has to say…
NO. 8 SEEDS ARE BEHIND THE 8-BALL
For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the postseason. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.
Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost nearly 75 percent of time (37-107) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks and the 2007 Golden State Warriors were good enough to pull the rug on top-seeded foes and advance to Round 2 of the playoffs.
Worse, they are 7-32 straight up (SU) and 13-23-3 against the spread (ATS) in the postseason with a losing record in opening round games, including 5-11-1 ATS when taking double digits.
And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 2-22 SU and 6-18 ATS, including 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS whenever the No. 8 seeds are off a spread loss of more than five points in their last game.
UPSET LOSERS ARE WINNERS
No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.
That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 50-29-2 ATS (4-1 last season), a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 37-19-2 ATS, including 25-8-1 ATS when squaring off against a No. 3 or higher seed.
Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.
DOUBLE-DIGIT DOGMA
Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 27-14-1 ATS in this role, including 17-6 ATS versus a non-division foe.
These same guys are also 9-1 ATS off a playoff loss of 16 or fewer points.
Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.
AND DOWN GOES FRAZIER
The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-losing skids are one punch away from being counted out.
With glass jaws, these swirling teams are just 5-25 SU and 7-23 ATS away from home, including 2-11 SU and ATS in openers. They are also 3-18 ATS as underdogs versus .635 or greater opposition when on their way to the canvas.
Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three-game losing skids are 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
NHL Playoffs: Overview and tips
The NHL Playoffs are here. That means it’s time to get cozy in front of your favorite big screen and settle in for two months of sheer excitement.There’s nothing like the NHL postseason, not only for hardcore puckheads, but also for savvy bettors. This is one of the best times of the year to make money on the ice.
As is the case in every professional sport, betting the playoffs is a completely different animal compared to the regular season. There are unique edges we can put in play from the opening round all the way to the Stanley Cup final.
Here are four pointers to help make your playoff journey a profitable one.
Stay away from big favorites
It’s not uncommon to see teams priced north of -200, especially in the first round.
In fact, on the opening night of last year’s playoffs, bettors were served two favorites north of -210. Both lost, as the Senators upset the Penguins and the Avalanche stole one from the Sharks.
Favorites of -200 or higher ended up going a miserable 7-8 in the first round of the 2010 playoffs, losing their backers a considerable chunk of change.
There’s a time and place for everything when it comes to sports betting, but it’s rarely a wise decision to get behind these big favorites. There just isn’t much separating a No. 8 seed from a No. 1 seed in the NHL – certainly not when compared to that same matchup in the NBA playoffs, for instance.
If you must play them, consider doing so in parlays to reduce your juice.
Home ice disadvantage?
Home-ice advantage is obviously coveted. It’s what teams play for over the course of the 82-game regular season.
With that being said, it shouldn’t be the No. 1 factor you consider when handicapping the playoffs. Perhaps in no other sport do we see teams come together and play as well on the road in the postseason as we do in hockey.
Hockey players are a different breed. They thrive on the camaraderie built on the road and many teams are actually more comfortable starting a series in enemy territory. The “us against the world” mentality can be a driving force from a motivational standpoint.
Home ice becomes more important as a series progresses. In the first four games, it’s not uncommon to see teams split in each venue. In Games 5 through 7, that’s when you want to put a little more stock in which team has the luxury of playing in front of the home crowd.
Ride the hot goalie
Time and time again, we’ve seen teams that underachieved during the regular season, ride a hot goalie deep into the playoffs.
Western Conference: Mavs, Hornets battle for playoff seeding
Wed, April 13, 2011, 8pm EST, TV: ESPN
Betting Line: Mavs -11
Total: 186.5
Money Line: Mavs -700/Hornets +500
The New Orleans Hornets (46-35) visit the Dallas Mavericks (56-25) on Wednesday with both teams still fighting for playoff positioning. The Mavericks (-11) could still earn the second seed in the West with a win and a loss by the Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento while the Hornets need a victory and a loss by Memphis against the Clippers to avoid the eighth and final spot.
Even though the teams will not play each other in the first round of the postseason, this will serve as a playoff game of sorts since it will be one of the few games on the slate with anything on the line. New Orleans has dropped its last two games both straight-up and against the spread and seemed to be headed for the sixth seed until leading scorer and rebounder David West got hurt. West recently underwent successful surgery on his left knee. The Hornets are 5-4 without him.
Meanwhile, Dallas has won three in a row both SU and ATS since a four-game losing streak that almost killed the team’s chances of getting the #2 seed. The Lakers had helped them out by losing five straight before beating San Antonio 102-93 on Tuesday, but they still own the tiebreaker since they won the regular-season series.
With West on the floor for New Orleans, these teams were fairly even in their three meetings this year. All three were decided by three points or less with the Hornets winning the last two by a combined three points. Jarrett Jack led them to a 93-92 victory in the latest meeting on March 9, scoring 21 points and dishing out seven assists while filling in for the injured Chris Paul. Dirk Nowitzki averaged nearly 27 points in the three games for the Mavs and has totaled 20 or more in three of four overall.
The OVER has cashed in four of the last five meetings along with six of eight, although neither team has reached the century mark in the past three. New Orleans has failed to reach 90 points in the last two games after scoring more than 100 in the previous three. Dallas has held its last three opponents to an average of 92 points with the UNDER cashing twice.
Monday, April 11, 2011
MLB Pitcher's Report for April: The Good, the Bad and the........
Major League Baseball trades places with college basketball as the sports flavor of the month in April. And as we usher in America's favorite pastime, let's open the season with one of our favorite handicapping angles - good month pitchers.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one (67%) or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of April. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in April team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years. I'll be back next month with May's Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS
A.J. Burnett - New York Yankees: 11-4
Notes - Looking for bounce back year with Yankees and a good start would certainly help.
Dana Eveland - L.A. Dodgers: 10-4
Zach Greinke - Milwaukee: 10-5
Notes - Currently on the DL for Milwaukee and is iffy to pitch this month.
"King" Felix Hernandez - Seattle: 12-4
Notes - When doesn't King Felix have a good month. He could be completely dominating on a club that scored runs.
Livan Hernandez - Washington: 9-4
Notes - The 36-year old throws a lot of junk and is typically strong in the first part of the year before wearing down.
Josh Johnson - Florida: 7-3
Tim Lincecum - San Francisco:11-4
Notes - Smart, intelligent hurler who knows how to pitch and keeps hitters off-balance with off-speed stuff.
Derek Lowe - Atlanta: 11-5
Notes - A consistent pitcher who forces batters to beat the ball into the ground.
Erwin Santana - Los Angeles Angels: 8-3
Notes - Had a good bounce back season in 2010 and usually helps Halos get off to good start.
Johan Santana - N.Y. Mets: 10-5
Notes - On the DL
Adam Wainwright - St. Louis: 12-3
Notes - On the DL
BAD MONTH PITCHERS
David Bush - Milwaukee: 4-9
Notes - Now a long reliever for Texas where he can't hurt anyone as starter.
Johnny Cueto - Cincinnati: 5-10
Notes - Starting the season on the DL, should be back late in the month.
Tom Gorzelanny - Washington: 2-8
Notes - Now pitching for Washington which is third team in three years. Always has solid strikeout to walk ratios but makes key mistakes.
Jeremy Guthrie - Baltimore: 4-11
Notes - Pitching in Baltimore hasn't helped and his stuff is dependent on good defense, not always an Orioles strength.
John Lannan - Washington: 5-10
Notes - Good for two trips around the batting order, but lacks enough sharp pitches and finds a lot bats.
Shaun Marcum - Milwaukee: 3-7
Notes - Let's see how Marcum does in Brewers uniform being away from AL East teams the opening month of the season.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one (67%) or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of April. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in April team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years. I'll be back next month with May's Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS
A.J. Burnett - New York Yankees: 11-4
Notes - Looking for bounce back year with Yankees and a good start would certainly help.
Dana Eveland - L.A. Dodgers: 10-4
Zach Greinke - Milwaukee: 10-5
Notes - Currently on the DL for Milwaukee and is iffy to pitch this month.
"King" Felix Hernandez - Seattle: 12-4
Notes - When doesn't King Felix have a good month. He could be completely dominating on a club that scored runs.
Livan Hernandez - Washington: 9-4
Notes - The 36-year old throws a lot of junk and is typically strong in the first part of the year before wearing down.
Josh Johnson - Florida: 7-3
Tim Lincecum - San Francisco:11-4
Notes - Smart, intelligent hurler who knows how to pitch and keeps hitters off-balance with off-speed stuff.
Derek Lowe - Atlanta: 11-5
Notes - A consistent pitcher who forces batters to beat the ball into the ground.
Erwin Santana - Los Angeles Angels: 8-3
Notes - Had a good bounce back season in 2010 and usually helps Halos get off to good start.
Johan Santana - N.Y. Mets: 10-5
Notes - On the DL
Adam Wainwright - St. Louis: 12-3
Notes - On the DL
BAD MONTH PITCHERS
David Bush - Milwaukee: 4-9
Notes - Now a long reliever for Texas where he can't hurt anyone as starter.
Johnny Cueto - Cincinnati: 5-10
Notes - Starting the season on the DL, should be back late in the month.
Tom Gorzelanny - Washington: 2-8
Notes - Now pitching for Washington which is third team in three years. Always has solid strikeout to walk ratios but makes key mistakes.
Jeremy Guthrie - Baltimore: 4-11
Notes - Pitching in Baltimore hasn't helped and his stuff is dependent on good defense, not always an Orioles strength.
John Lannan - Washington: 5-10
Notes - Good for two trips around the batting order, but lacks enough sharp pitches and finds a lot bats.
Shaun Marcum - Milwaukee: 3-7
Notes - Let's see how Marcum does in Brewers uniform being away from AL East teams the opening month of the season.
Will Bonds go to jail???
The Barry Bonds jury renewed its deliberations Monday, with the eight-woman, four-man panel listening to a clerk read back the testimony of Bonds' former personal shopper, Kathy Hoskins.
Hoskins testified that she witnessed the home run king's personal trainer, Greg Anderson, inject the player in the navel at Bond's house before a road trip during the 2002 season. She is the only person with eyewitness testimony to an injection. One of the four perjury-related counts Bonds is charged with alleges he lied to a federal grand jury when he said no one but his doctor ever injected him with anything.
``This was very damaging testimony that contrasted starkly with his denials of steroid use that are the heart of this perjury case,'' said legal observer Joshua Berman, a former prosecutor who is now a criminal defense attorney in Washington D.C.
Berman said he thinks the jury's request was a good sign for the prosecutors.
The jurors requested on Friday that they be allowed to hear Hoskins' testimony again. Most of them scribbled notes when Hoskins' testimony about the injection was read back.
It took more than an hour to for the whole transcript of Hoskins' testimony to be read aloud. Bonds kept an eye on the jurors during portions of the reading.
Monday was the second day of deliberations and marked three weeks since the trial began. A court spokeswoman said the panel had lunch delivered to the jury room.
Now 46, Bonds owns the major league records for most home runs in a season and a career.
The other counts against Bonds accuse him of lying to the grand jury in 2003 when he denied knowingly taking performance-enhancing drugs, and of obstructing justice.
Hoskins testified that she witnessed the home run king's personal trainer, Greg Anderson, inject the player in the navel at Bond's house before a road trip during the 2002 season. She is the only person with eyewitness testimony to an injection. One of the four perjury-related counts Bonds is charged with alleges he lied to a federal grand jury when he said no one but his doctor ever injected him with anything.
``This was very damaging testimony that contrasted starkly with his denials of steroid use that are the heart of this perjury case,'' said legal observer Joshua Berman, a former prosecutor who is now a criminal defense attorney in Washington D.C.
Berman said he thinks the jury's request was a good sign for the prosecutors.
The jurors requested on Friday that they be allowed to hear Hoskins' testimony again. Most of them scribbled notes when Hoskins' testimony about the injection was read back.
It took more than an hour to for the whole transcript of Hoskins' testimony to be read aloud. Bonds kept an eye on the jurors during portions of the reading.
Monday was the second day of deliberations and marked three weeks since the trial began. A court spokeswoman said the panel had lunch delivered to the jury room.
Now 46, Bonds owns the major league records for most home runs in a season and a career.
The other counts against Bonds accuse him of lying to the grand jury in 2003 when he denied knowingly taking performance-enhancing drugs, and of obstructing justice.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
$8M sportsbook, with mafia connections, busted; Online poker in D.C.?
A reported $8 million sports betting ring with ties to the Bonanno crime family was busted Wednesday in Queens, N.Y.
Four men were indicted and are accused of using offshore accounts at the gambling site, arrowaction.net, to operate the illegal book. The site was not operating Saturday night.
Michael Palmaccio, a rumored soldier in Bonanno organization, is accused of running the book. District Attorneys on the case told the New York Daily News that the ring used threats of physical harm to collect debts.
D.C. poised to legalize online poker
While other U.S. states balk at legalizing online poker, Washington, D.C., home to the federal government, is poised to offer legal online poker to players within state lines.
According to a report Wall Street Journal on Friday, the D.C. city council approved a budget last year that included the district’s lottery to operate a poker website.
City officials claim Congress missed its window to raise objections, which passed on Thursday.
So shuffle up and deal?
Actually, we’re not quite there yet. There’s still plenty of work to be done, including a possible showdown with United State Department of Justice. But the WSJ projects that the poker operating system could be available in certain spots, like hotels for example, by the end of the year.
Poker Players Alliance Executive Director John Pappas isn’t confident D.C.’s market can sustain an online poker business on its own, but told the paper that legalizing online poker in the nation’s capital could help speed up the movement to get it legalized nationwide.
New Jersey, Iowa, California and Florida have also discussed legalizing and regulation online poker in an attempt to cut budget deficits.
Four men were indicted and are accused of using offshore accounts at the gambling site, arrowaction.net, to operate the illegal book. The site was not operating Saturday night.
Michael Palmaccio, a rumored soldier in Bonanno organization, is accused of running the book. District Attorneys on the case told the New York Daily News that the ring used threats of physical harm to collect debts.
D.C. poised to legalize online poker
While other U.S. states balk at legalizing online poker, Washington, D.C., home to the federal government, is poised to offer legal online poker to players within state lines.
According to a report Wall Street Journal on Friday, the D.C. city council approved a budget last year that included the district’s lottery to operate a poker website.
City officials claim Congress missed its window to raise objections, which passed on Thursday.
So shuffle up and deal?
Actually, we’re not quite there yet. There’s still plenty of work to be done, including a possible showdown with United State Department of Justice. But the WSJ projects that the poker operating system could be available in certain spots, like hotels for example, by the end of the year.
Poker Players Alliance Executive Director John Pappas isn’t confident D.C.’s market can sustain an online poker business on its own, but told the paper that legalizing online poker in the nation’s capital could help speed up the movement to get it legalized nationwide.
New Jersey, Iowa, California and Florida have also discussed legalizing and regulation online poker in an attempt to cut budget deficits.
$8M sportsbook, with mafia connections, busted; Online poker in D.C.?
A reported $8 million sports betting ring with ties to the Bonanno crime family was busted Wednesday in Queens, N.Y.
Four men were indicted and are accused of using offshore accounts at the gambling site, arrowaction.net, to operate the illegal book. The site was not operating Saturday night.
Michael Palmaccio, a rumored soldier in Bonanno organization, is accused of running the book. District Attorneys on the case told the New York Daily News that the ring used threats of physical harm to collect debts.
D.C. poised to legalize online poker
While other U.S. states balk at legalizing online poker, Washington, D.C., home to the federal government, is poised to offer legal online poker to players within state lines.
According to a report Wall Street Journal on Friday, the D.C. city council approved a budget last year that included the district’s lottery to operate a poker website.
City officials claim Congress missed its window to raise objections, which passed on Thursday.
So shuffle up and deal?
Actually, we’re not quite there yet. There’s still plenty of work to be done, including a possible showdown with United State Department of Justice. But the WSJ projects that the poker operating system could be available in certain spots, like hotels for example, by the end of the year.
Poker Players Alliance Executive Director John Pappas isn’t confident D.C.’s market can sustain an online poker business on its own, but told the paper that legalizing online poker in the nation’s capital could help speed up the movement to get it legalized nationwide.
New Jersey, Iowa, California and Florida have also discussed legalizing and regulation online poker in an attempt to cut budget deficits.
Four men were indicted and are accused of using offshore accounts at the gambling site, arrowaction.net, to operate the illegal book. The site was not operating Saturday night.
Michael Palmaccio, a rumored soldier in Bonanno organization, is accused of running the book. District Attorneys on the case told the New York Daily News that the ring used threats of physical harm to collect debts.
D.C. poised to legalize online poker
While other U.S. states balk at legalizing online poker, Washington, D.C., home to the federal government, is poised to offer legal online poker to players within state lines.
According to a report Wall Street Journal on Friday, the D.C. city council approved a budget last year that included the district’s lottery to operate a poker website.
City officials claim Congress missed its window to raise objections, which passed on Thursday.
So shuffle up and deal?
Actually, we’re not quite there yet. There’s still plenty of work to be done, including a possible showdown with United State Department of Justice. But the WSJ projects that the poker operating system could be available in certain spots, like hotels for example, by the end of the year.
Poker Players Alliance Executive Director John Pappas isn’t confident D.C.’s market can sustain an online poker business on its own, but told the paper that legalizing online poker in the nation’s capital could help speed up the movement to get it legalized nationwide.
New Jersey, Iowa, California and Florida have also discussed legalizing and regulation online poker in an attempt to cut budget deficits.
Western Conference Shootout: Betting Nuggets against Warriors
Monday, April 11, 2011, 9:00 pm EST
Line: Nuggets -11
Total: 220
Ty Lawson and the Denver Nuggets (49-31) will have a very difficult time duplicating their offensive performance from a 130-106 rout of Minnesota on Saturday, but they should still have another great opportunity to run up and down the floor when they host the Golden State Warriors (35-45) on Monday. Lawson scored a career-high 37 points and made 10 of 11 attempts from 3-point range against the Timberwolves to lead eight Nuggets who scored in double figures.
The second-year point guard from North Carolina actually briefly set the NBA record for most 3-pointers made without a miss (10) before failing to knock down a 28-footer at the end of the third quarter. Denver (-11) led 101-69 at that point, and Lawson got the fourth quarter off. He should have fresh legs for this matchup with the Warriors, who are coming off a 104-103 home loss to Sacramento on Sunday.
Golden State could be without leading scorer Monta Ellis due to a head injury he suffered in the final minutes against the Kings. Ellis scored seven points on 2 of 9 shooting while Stephen Curry led the Warriors with a game-high 27 points and David Lee added 24 and 14 rebounds. The team is already short-handed in the backcourt after reserve Acie Law elected to have season-ending wrist surgery.
Six of the last seven meetings between the teams have gone OVER the total, with all of those games closing with totals of higher than 220. The Nuggets have covered the spread in the last three meetings but lost the last one 116-114 at Golden State on February 9. Carmelo Anthony scored a team-high 29 points for Denver in that game while Lawson had just eight. Ellis totaled a game-high 37 points to lead a Warriors team that also got 23 from Dorell Wright and 13 from Curry.
Since Anthony was traded to New York, the Nuggets have become more guard-oriented with some wondering if Lawson and fellow Tar Heel Raymond Felton could co-exist. Denver head coach George Karl also went to North Carolina and has enjoyed having both players on his team. Felton has come off the bench after starting for the Knicks and dished out 14 assists against Minnesota. The Nuggets are 17-6 straight-up and 18-4-1 against the spread sans Anthony. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games overall and has also cashed in five straight for Golden State.
MANNY BEING MANNY?? or RAMIREZ on HGH??
News of Ramirez’s sudden retirement broke through the back-and-forth slugfest between the AL East foes like a shattered bat flying into the stands Friday. The NESN broadcast screeched to a halt when the story broke and got even more off track when news that another failed drug test had prompted the then-Tampa Bay Ray to call it quits.
According to reports, Ramirez was informed about his second positive test and, instead of serving another suspension or face disciplinary actions, the 38 year old decided to retire. For Rays fans, this might have come five games too late, after Ramirez was a terrible 1 for 17 with four strikeouts in his short stint with Tampa Bay.
Ramirez had become a shell of his former self in recent years, lacking the scary power that used to rain down on unfortunately-parked cars on Lansdowne Street during his time in Boston.
Ever since testing positive for hCG while with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2009, for which he served a 50 game suspension, Ramirez was on a steep downward slide, eventually signing with Tampa Bay as a DH before the start of the 2011 season. The move was a desperate one by a franchise that just watched its top talents leave for big bucks in better baseball markets.
Ramirez was once one of the most-feared sluggers in the bigs, along with being its most colorful character. His questionable fielding decisions in left, his deranged sense of priorities, and even his impromptu bathroom in the leftfield wall of Fenway were always cast aside as “Manny being Manny” – as if his overwhelming talent was an excuse for acting like a jackass.
However, when you’re hitting 0.59 BA and just got busted a second time for juicing, “Manny being Manny” just doesn’t fly any more. The guy was a great hitter – not ballplayer – putting up a career .312 BA, 1,831 RBIs and 555 home runs in his 18 years in the major leagues.
But when you factor in that a good chunk of those stats could have came while taking PEDs, you have to toss Ramirez into the shark tank with Bonds, Sosa, McGwire and the rest of the steroid era all-stars.
The big question now, that Manny is done being Manny, is how will Ramirez be remembered?
He’s a folk hero in Boston after helping snap the World Series curse in 2004, giving Red Sox Nation its first championship since 1918. And, much like Barry Bonds in San Francisco, he will always be cheered in Beantown while the rest of the country views him as the last big fish in the steroid pond.
How will you view Ramirez: Silly slugger or juiced-up jackass?
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Sunday Night Baseball: Yankees at Red Sox
EVEN-STEVEN
Last year, these archrivals played the standard 18 games, and each squad came away with nine wins. Home field wasn’t particularly helpful to either side, as the Sox and Yanks both went 4-5 on friendly turf in 2010.
The first two meetings of the 2011 season have been more of the same, with Boston winning the opener 9-6 on Friday night – for its first win of the season after an 0-6 start – and New York bouncing back Saturday for a 9-4 victory.
That said, Boston is 6-3 in the last nine meetings overall, winning three in a row at Fenway before Saturday’s setback.
PITCHERS LESS THAN PERFECT
New York sends out ace left-hander CC Sabathia tonight, while Boston counters with righty Josh Beckett. Neither has particularly strong career numbers in this rivalry.
Beckett is 10-7 lifetime in 22 starts against the Pinstripes, with a 6.26 ERA. He made five starts against New York last year and didn’t fare well, going 1-2 with a bloated 10.04 ERA. At Fenway Park, Beckett was opposite Sabathia last April 4 in a 9-7 Sox win, allowing five runs in 4 2/3 innings. A month later at home, he got blistered by New York, yielding nine runs – all earned – in 5 1/3 innings of a 10-3 beatdown.
Sabathia, meanwhile, is a middling 6-5 in 15 career starts against the BoSox, though with a much more respectable ERA of 3.45 in those games. In 2010, he made four starts against Boston, going 1-0 with a trio of no decisions and a 3.96 ERA, averaging just over six innings per game.
Fenway Park, however, was a bit rough for the hefty lefty. In two starts there last year, Sabathia was 0-0 with an inflated 7.20 ERA, mostly due to the aforementioned 9-7 loss last April, in which he allowed six runs (five earned) in 5 1/3 innings. A month later in Boston, he allowed three runs in 4 2/3 innings, but the Yanks put up 11 runs over the final five frames of a 14-3 rout.
PITCHING .750
On a more positive note for Sabathia, the Yankees are 42-14 in his last 56 starts overall and 21-7 in his last 28 stints against losing teams. And yes, despite their status as an AL favorite, the Sox are a losing team at this point.
RUNNING UP THE SCORE
One of the more sure things in this rivalry of late: Lots of runs on the scoreboard. The over has been the play in seven of the last eight clashes overall, including the last five in a row. And in the last 54 Yankees-Sox contests in Boston, the over is a robust 39-15-1.
Some more overkill: With Beckett taking the ball, the over is on streaks of 5-0-1 against the Yanks, 4-1 at home against New York and 8-2-1 against winning teams. The over is also on surges for Boston of 9-3 overall and 5-0 at Fenway. And for New York, the over is on sprees of 19-7-1 overall, 6-0 in division play, 8-2-1 on the highway and 5-0 behind Sabathia.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
4/7 FREE PICKS
MLB: Florida -1.5 +120
$$ Our 2011 NCAAB Tourney record was = 31-9 = 77.5%
Get 7 winners for Thursday for only $25 HERE
Member Picks cashed in L6 days going 37-21
Wednesday 4/6 Free Picks Went 1-0
MLB: Cincinnati -1.5 +125 WON
2011 FREE PICKS = 134-59-2 = 69%
Play on us at ODDSMAKER FOR $50 (No Deposit Required)
$$ Our 2011 NCAAB Tourney record was = 31-9 = 77.5%
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Member Picks cashed in L6 days going 37-21
Wednesday 4/6 Free Picks Went 1-0
MLB: Cincinnati -1.5 +125 WON
2011 FREE PICKS = 134-59-2 = 69%
Play on us at ODDSMAKER FOR $50 (No Deposit Required)
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Double Dribble: 4/7 NBA TNT Doubleheader Preview
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (-4.5, 179)
Boston and Chicago are set to do battle on Thursday night in a potential preview of the upcoming Eastern Conference finals. The Bulls have the inside track on the No. 1 seed and they are three games clear of the Celtics and Heat.
These two teams have faced each other three times this season, with Boston leading the head-to-head series 2-1. After winning a pair of home games in November and December, the Celtics fell at Chicago 90-79 on Jan. 8. They’ll have to do a better job on the glass against one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. Boston actually won the boards battle by 10 on Dec. 3, but the Bulls dominated 43-31 in rebounds on Nov. 5 and 48-27 on Jan. 8.
PLAYOFF PREVIEW
The Celtics (54-23, 36-39-2 ATS) are coming off another potential playoff preview, as they went up against Philadelphia at home on Tuesday and hammered the Sixers 99-82. Boston featured a balanced scoring attack and shot 52.6 percent from the floor while limiting its opponents to 39.3 percent shooting.
“We’re not going to play those guys [the Bulls and Heat] in the first round,” Rajon Rondo told the Boston Globe afterward. “Tonight was a good test for us. (The Sixers) might be a first-round team and we did a good job making a little statement as far as it’s going to be difficult to beat us in a seven-game series.”
How about just one game? That’s what Chicago (57-20, 46-29-2 ATS) will be looking to do on Thursday, but the visitors probably won’t have a backer in Philadelphia head coach Doug Collins.
“We ran up against a team that played probably as well as they’ve played in a long time,” Collins told the Globe after Tuesday’s loss.
The Celtics, furthermore, are the healthiest they have been in a while. Although Shaquille O’Neal will almost certainly miss the game with a calf strain, the team is used to playing without him (Shaq has missed 22 of Boston’s last 23).
TRENDING TOPICS
The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
The under is 8-2 in Boston’s last 10 road contests and 12-3 in its last 15 overall. However, the over is 8-2 in Chicago’s last 10 overall.
Head-to-head, the Bulls are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the Celtics and the under is 9-3 in the last 12 at the United Center.
Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz
Portland and Utah will be going head-to-head for the fourth time this season when they collide on Thursday night. The Jazz went on the road to win 103-94 back on Nov. 11, but the Trail Blazers got revenge twice in December; 96-91 at Utah and 100-89 at home three days later.
Interestingly, Portland’s Brandon Roy missed all three games. Knee injuries have kept him out for two extended stretches during this campaign, and both coincided with contests against Utah. Roy is good to go now the Jazz will get their first look at him on Thursday.
At the same time, though, they will have to do a better job focusing on the Trail Blazers’ LaMarcus Aldridge. The 6-foot-11 power forward is averaging 25.7 in his three outings versus Utah and also pulled down 11 boards in the first showdown.
TRAIL TO THE PLAYOFFS
Portland (45-33, 40-35-3 ATS) got blown out 108-87 at home by Golden State on Tuesday, but it still clinched a playoff spot by virtue of Houston’s loss to Sacramento.
Nonetheless, the Trail Blazers have no reason to sandbag it throughout the remainder of the regular season. They stand in sixth place (which would likely pit them against Dallas in Round 1) but are just one game ahead of eighth-place Memphis, meaning a first-round series against either the Spurs or Lakers is real possibility.
“It's a big concern when you lose,” point guard Andre Miller told OregonLive.com. “We don't want to throw away games, especially at this point when you're trying to position for a playoff spot.”
ALL THAT JAZZ
Which Jazz team will show up on Thursday? That’s a tough call.
Will it be the one that has stumbled through most of the season and had lost eight in a row prior to Tuesday, or will it be the one that just went into the Staples Center and stunned the Western Conference-leading Lakers?
Sample size suggests it will be the former, and the injury report indicates the same. Raja Bell (foot), Kyrylo Fesenko (thumb) Devin Harris (hamstring), and Andrei Kirilenko (knee) are all questionable for Thursday’s clash. All four players have missed at least two straight games.
That is not good news for Utah (37-41, 32-44-2 ATS), who’ll miss Mehmet Okur (back, out for season) and Ronnie Price (calf, out indefinitely).
TRENDING TOPICS
The Trail Blazers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with losing SU records.
The Jazz are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 outings against teams with winning SU records and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
The under is 4-0 in Utah’s last four against the Western Conference and 5-0 in its last five overall.
Head-to-head, the over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the two teams and the home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 encounters. The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Utah.
Philly Fun: Sixers host the New York Knicks
Current Line: Phi -5.5
Current Total: 213.5
Current Moneyline: Phi -220/NY +185
It’s hard to imagine a team with Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire not being favored, but the Knicks just haven’t been that good since the trade and Carmelo himself said “it’s going to take time.” The Knicks have won just 4 of their last 10 games and sit only 1 game above .500, actually behind Philadelphia who is now half a game ahead of the struggling Knicks. If the playoffs started today, New York would face Boston and Philadelphia would face Miami, a bad proposition for both teams. Even had they made the fifth seed, they would still face a likely first round exit against Orlando; the East is top heavy.
The Knicks had no trouble last night against the Raptors, scoring 131 points in route to a 13 point victory. That’s simply a shootout though, there is no defense in a game like that. For New York to even have the most remote chance against Boston, they are going to have to defend, or face Paul Pierce scoring over 30 and leading the Celtics to victory. Moreover, they won’t be able to control the pace against Boston, anyway, Rondo is too good to allow that to happen.
Some betting trends:
New York is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 games. New York is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road. They are also 0-5 ATS in those five games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York’s last 6 games on the road and they are 6-16 SU in their last 22 games against the Sixers. New York is 4-2 SU in their last 6 against Philadelphia and the total has gnoe UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games against Philadelphia. The total has also gone UNDER in 4 of the Knicks last 5 road games in Philadelphia. New York is 2-10 SU in their lsat 12 games on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games. The total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 8 at home and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 at home. Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Knicks and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 against the Knicks. Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in their last 6 against the Knicks and they are 16-6 SU in their last 22 against the Knicks. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 at home against New York and they are 10-2 SU in their last 12 at home against the Knicks. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home against the Knicks.
Key matchups:
Chauncey Billups vs. Jrue Holiday
Billups, unlike Anthony, has improved since stepping into a Knick uniform. The 34 year old point guard is playing the same number of minutes, 32, but attempting 2 more shots a game and averaging 1.9 points per game more than he did in Denver. Holiday will have the size to matchup with Billups, though, and has proven himself to be a solid defender against most point guards in the league. In fact, it will be Billups who will have the trouble, as staying in front of Holiday could be a problem for the slow footed Billups. I’m not suggesting Holiday will dominate Billups, but for a point guard that should dominate here (Billups), there will be little if any separation between the two in terms of offensive production.
Carmelo Anthony vs. Andre Iguodala
Iguodala is probably the best defender against Carmelo Anthony in the entire league. He frustrated Anthony while he was with Denver, holding him below the Bodog line for his scoring in every matchup. “Iggy” doesn’t offer a lot of offensive punch, but he’s not horrible either. In years past, he averaged in excess of 18 a game, but with Philadelphia’s improved team he is shooting less this year and consequently scoring less. Philly won’t ask much of him offensively tonight, as it is most important that he expends his energies on slowing down Anthony just as he has all season.
Given the fact that both teams played last night, it might be reasonable to expect some sluggish play. New York won’t slow down the pace any, but tired legs and short jumpers are to be expected.
Friday, April 1, 2011
Final Four betting mismatches
VCU Rams vs. Butler Bulldogs (-2.5, 133.5)
VCU’s 3-point shooting vs. Butler’s 3-point defense
The No. 11 Rams have been a decent 3-point shooting squad all season, averaging 37 percent from beyond the arc. But they’ve absolutely thrived on the 3-ball in the NCAA tournament, hitting 53 of 121 - a sterling 43 percent.
On the flip side, Butler has allowed opponents to hit just 32.6 percent from long range this season and has clamped down even more in the NCAA. The Bulldogs’ four opponents have made just 21-of-69 3-pointers - a 30.4 percent clip. In the Sweet 16 upset of Wisconsin, Butler forced the Badgers into a dismal 7-for-29 performance from 3-point range.
The Bulldogs defense often doesn’t allow foes to get off many 3-pointers. Virginia Commonwealth has fired up an average of 24.2 3-point chucks per game in the tourney, with a low of 21. Butler is allowing 17.25 and that number is skewed by Wisconsin, which was down by 20 points midway through the second half and had to fire the ball up constantly to claw back in. Old Dominion got off just 15 3-point attempts in the second round against the Bulldogs, Pitt had 11 in the third round and Florida shot 14 3-point attempts in the Elite Eight.
Butler’s Final Four experience vs. VCU’s wide-eyed enthusiasm
Both these teams can fit into Cinderella’s slippers – perhaps VCU more so this year, as only the third No. 11 seed to reach the Final Four. Butler, however, has the benefit of knowing exactly what to expect out of this weekend.
The Bulldogs, seeded eighth this year, were a No. 5 seed in the 2010 tournament. They barked all the way to the national championship game and gave Duke all it could handle. Butler came within an eyelash of victory, as Gordon Hayward’s buzzer-beater from beyond halfcourt rimmed out.
Even though Hayward, their top player, bolted early for the NBA, the Bulldogs still got back to the Final Four. So it’s clear last year’s experience, and the coaching of Brad Stevens, played a role in Butler becoming the first mid-major team to reach the national semifinals two years in a row.
Virginia Commonwealth, on the other hand, has never been anywhere near this point, getting no further than the second round in eight previous appearances. Sure, the Rams are playing with house money right now, so they are definitely loose. But the Bulldogs are playing with house money too, and they’ve got the benefit of having been here before, just one year ago.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. UConn Huskies (+2, 140)
Junior PG Kemba Walker vs. Freshman PG Brandon Knight
Brandon Knight has put together a nice little tournament for Kentucky. He’s got a pair of game-winning shots and he hung 30 points on West Virginia and 22 points on North Carolina in the regional final. But he’s got a little problem: He’s very hit-and-miss in the Big Dance.
He had the game-winner against Princeton, but that was his only score of the entire game. In a 59-57 victory against a team from the Ivy League, he mustered just two points on 1-for-8 shooting. In the 62-60 upset of overall No. 1 seed Ohio State in the Sweet 16, Knight had just nine points on 3-for-10 shooting. And it’s not like he had double-digit assists to make up for it, registering only five assists against Princeton and four against Ohio State. Knight is feast or famine.
Kemba Walker, meanwhile, is more like feast or all-you-can-eat buffet. He’s averaging a stellar 26.8 ppg in the tournament and his lowest output was against Bucknell, when he scored 18 points in the second round - but he had a dozen assists. Then, he racked up 33 points in the third-round win over Cincinnati and went a step farther with 36 points in the against San Diego State in the Sweet 16. He had 20 points and seven assists in the thrilling 65-63 victory over Arizona in the regional final.
And his effort in the NCAA comes on the heels of an amazing five-wins-in-five-days run through the Big East tournament, in which he averaged 26 points.
Kentucky’s 3-point shooting vs. UConn’s 3-point shooting
For all Kemba Walker’s heroics, the Huskies have hit just 33.7 percent from 3-point range this season. They’ve hovered around that area in the NCAA as well, going 9 for 24 in the second round, 6 for 16 in the third round and 5 for 17 in the Elite Eight. The only exception is an 8-for-16 effort in the Sweet 16.
The Wildcats are among the best shooting teams in the country. Kentucky is hitting at a 40-percent clip from long distance this season. John Calipari’s troops have done even better in the tournament, knocking down 42.6 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.
That includes a big night in last weekend’s region final against North Carolina, when the Wildcats went 12 for 22 from outside (54.5 percent). That’s a quick and efficient way to get 36 points.
VCU’s 3-point shooting vs. Butler’s 3-point defense
The No. 11 Rams have been a decent 3-point shooting squad all season, averaging 37 percent from beyond the arc. But they’ve absolutely thrived on the 3-ball in the NCAA tournament, hitting 53 of 121 - a sterling 43 percent.
On the flip side, Butler has allowed opponents to hit just 32.6 percent from long range this season and has clamped down even more in the NCAA. The Bulldogs’ four opponents have made just 21-of-69 3-pointers - a 30.4 percent clip. In the Sweet 16 upset of Wisconsin, Butler forced the Badgers into a dismal 7-for-29 performance from 3-point range.
The Bulldogs defense often doesn’t allow foes to get off many 3-pointers. Virginia Commonwealth has fired up an average of 24.2 3-point chucks per game in the tourney, with a low of 21. Butler is allowing 17.25 and that number is skewed by Wisconsin, which was down by 20 points midway through the second half and had to fire the ball up constantly to claw back in. Old Dominion got off just 15 3-point attempts in the second round against the Bulldogs, Pitt had 11 in the third round and Florida shot 14 3-point attempts in the Elite Eight.
Butler’s Final Four experience vs. VCU’s wide-eyed enthusiasm
Both these teams can fit into Cinderella’s slippers – perhaps VCU more so this year, as only the third No. 11 seed to reach the Final Four. Butler, however, has the benefit of knowing exactly what to expect out of this weekend.
The Bulldogs, seeded eighth this year, were a No. 5 seed in the 2010 tournament. They barked all the way to the national championship game and gave Duke all it could handle. Butler came within an eyelash of victory, as Gordon Hayward’s buzzer-beater from beyond halfcourt rimmed out.
Even though Hayward, their top player, bolted early for the NBA, the Bulldogs still got back to the Final Four. So it’s clear last year’s experience, and the coaching of Brad Stevens, played a role in Butler becoming the first mid-major team to reach the national semifinals two years in a row.
Virginia Commonwealth, on the other hand, has never been anywhere near this point, getting no further than the second round in eight previous appearances. Sure, the Rams are playing with house money right now, so they are definitely loose. But the Bulldogs are playing with house money too, and they’ve got the benefit of having been here before, just one year ago.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. UConn Huskies (+2, 140)
Junior PG Kemba Walker vs. Freshman PG Brandon Knight
Brandon Knight has put together a nice little tournament for Kentucky. He’s got a pair of game-winning shots and he hung 30 points on West Virginia and 22 points on North Carolina in the regional final. But he’s got a little problem: He’s very hit-and-miss in the Big Dance.
He had the game-winner against Princeton, but that was his only score of the entire game. In a 59-57 victory against a team from the Ivy League, he mustered just two points on 1-for-8 shooting. In the 62-60 upset of overall No. 1 seed Ohio State in the Sweet 16, Knight had just nine points on 3-for-10 shooting. And it’s not like he had double-digit assists to make up for it, registering only five assists against Princeton and four against Ohio State. Knight is feast or famine.
Kemba Walker, meanwhile, is more like feast or all-you-can-eat buffet. He’s averaging a stellar 26.8 ppg in the tournament and his lowest output was against Bucknell, when he scored 18 points in the second round - but he had a dozen assists. Then, he racked up 33 points in the third-round win over Cincinnati and went a step farther with 36 points in the against San Diego State in the Sweet 16. He had 20 points and seven assists in the thrilling 65-63 victory over Arizona in the regional final.
And his effort in the NCAA comes on the heels of an amazing five-wins-in-five-days run through the Big East tournament, in which he averaged 26 points.
Kentucky’s 3-point shooting vs. UConn’s 3-point shooting
For all Kemba Walker’s heroics, the Huskies have hit just 33.7 percent from 3-point range this season. They’ve hovered around that area in the NCAA as well, going 9 for 24 in the second round, 6 for 16 in the third round and 5 for 17 in the Elite Eight. The only exception is an 8-for-16 effort in the Sweet 16.
The Wildcats are among the best shooting teams in the country. Kentucky is hitting at a 40-percent clip from long distance this season. John Calipari’s troops have done even better in the tournament, knocking down 42.6 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.
That includes a big night in last weekend’s region final against North Carolina, when the Wildcats went 12 for 22 from outside (54.5 percent). That’s a quick and efficient way to get 36 points.
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