Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, readily admits, at this point, that the Miami Heat should be a +300 choice at best to win the
championship this season. But he said he’s not inclined to take the number to that point anytime soon, even with the Three Amigos of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in the midst of a major slump.Seba had the Heat as +160 favorites at the beginning of the season. He’s had to adjust based on the Heat’s current slide – which included a 105-96 home loss to Portland on Tuesday night – along with their increasingly poor record against good squads. They are 3-10 (2-10-1 ATS) in their last 13 games against winning teams, including 0-7 straight up and against the spread in the last seven. And Miami is a meager 1-9 against the five NBA teams that have a better record.
The futures line adjustments have been small, though.
“I had to make them (8-5) to win the title at the beginning, even though they were probably more like 5-2,” Seba told Covers.com. “I had them at 2-1 last week, and now I’ve got them at 5-2.”
That still leaves the Heat as Seba’s third choice to take the title; he has the surging, two-time defending champion Lakers at 2-1, and though he has both Boston and Miami at 5-2, he favors the Celtics.
“You can’t have the Heat at 9-5 or 2-1, because they don’t deserve to be that low, based on how they’re playing,” he said. “Legitimately, they should be 3-1 or 7-2 right now.”
So why aren’t they? Well, simply put, liability. Seba said he believes there is too much value for bettors – and conversely too much risk for sportsbooks – to push the number higher.
“I’ve got to keep it low with the Heat, or everybody will jump on that price,” Seba said. “You can make adjustments, but not dramatic adjustments, because there’s too much value there if you put it at 3-1. We don’t want to put the sports books in a bad position there, liability-wise.”
Jay Kornegay, director of the Las Vegas Hilton’s Superbook, told Covers.com that agrees with Seba’s overall assessment, though he did actually make the leap by moving the Heat’s future odds to +300.
“It’s more than just performance, and you can’t overreact, but you also have to look at where you stand on them as far as liability,” said Kornegay, noting the Superbook had the Heat as low as 7-5 (+140) at one point. “All that early action still has us losing on the Heat.”
Kornegay also said other teams come into play when deciding the futures line.
“We’re trying to balance it against all those contenders,” he said, adding he has the Lakers and Celtics at 5-2 right now. “It’s a juggling act against all those contenders. It’s not just focused on the Heat right now.”
Like Kornegay, Seba currently favors the Lakers to win the title again. But Seba said he believes the Heat will eventually turn the tide.
“They’re on a stretch where (their games) are all against good teams,” Seba said, alluding to the Heat being in the middle of an 11-game gauntlet against winning squads, which they’ve started by going 0-5. “They’re losing to really good contenders. Before this stretch, I had them rated the highest.
“Everybody is in a panic, but they’re right there.”
In fact, with Udonis Haslem’s return expected soon, Seba said he won’t be surprised if James, Wade and Bosh begin getting things back together – maybe even Thursday night at home against Kobe Bryant and Co.
“As long as they have no injuries and those three guys are still healthy, you have to keep their odds low,” he said. “They’re right there, losing close games. I have a feeling they’re gonna turn around pretty soon.”
Kornegay concurred, but said if the Heat continue to struggle, he’ll consider raising the number.
“Let’s see what they’re doing in April. If they continue to play bad, we’ll continue to adjust, but it’s going to take more than just a couple more bad games to raise it again,” he said, before hitting the punchline of the week. “Obviously, if they’re crying, we’ll probably adjust it. But you just don’t overreact.”
