Multiple offshore sportsbooks made a statement earlier this week by bumping up the line to Green Bay -3.
Las Vegas sportsbooks were still sitting at Packers -2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. But the MGM Mirage had increased the juice and was now charging -120 to bet Green Bay at -2.5.
“I believe it may go to 3,” said MGM sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback. “They laid the -115. I wouldn’t be surprised it went to 3.”
Offshore, Sportsbook.com and BookMaker.com were among the books that recently made the jump to Green Bay -3. Michael Perry, oddsmaker for the Sportsbook.com, told Covers.com Tuesday that they received enough action from “bettors that we respect” to make the significant half-point adjustment.
Bodog.com opened at Packers -3 and was holding steady, although the juice had been altered. Bodog was offering Green Bay -3 (+105), with the Steelers +3 (-125).
“I cannot see us moving off this number unless there are some unforeseen circumstances, maybe just some slight adjustments to the juice,” Bodog sportsbook manager Richard Gardner said Wednesday.
The Super Bowl total, after an initial push on the under, has settled at 44.5 points. A few Las Vegas books opened the total as high as 46, but early sharp money quickly bet it down to 44.5, where it’s remained.
“We’re getting two-way action at 44.5, so that seems to be the number,” said Stoneback. “It may go up when the tourists come into town. They like to bet the over. If anything, I would say that it would go back up a little bit.”
Stoneback estimates “at least 80 percent” of the total handle bet on the Super Bowl will be placed on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. That’s part of the reason he’s easing his way up to making the move to -3.
“If it goes to -3, the sharps will come in,” said Stoneback. “They’re just waiting. And they may want to bet the under again, too. They’re just waiting for the public to come back and run that number up to three. And if they run the total back up a point or so, they’ll be waiting to bet the under again.”
The Super Bowl moneyline adds another dynamic to the equation, especially for sharp bettors. Because the public will be their team regardless, the moneyline can get out of whack, producing valuable opportunities to the professionals.
“People don’t care if their team is a 10-point underdog but is only getting +150 on the moneyline. They’ll still take their team to win that game,” said Stoneback, with a devious chuckle. “The moneyline gets skewed. So a lot of times you’ll get sharps playing the moneyline on the favorite late.”
