Team Props
Team to score the longest touchdown - Green Bay -115 Remember that the Steelers lead the NFL in rushing defense this season, so we would not be surprised to see Green Bay pass the ball 35-40 times in this game. Well, the Packers also happen to have one of the deepest receiving corps in the league, and we may see quite a few four-receiver sets in this game with Green Bay having all of their top receivers on the field at the same tome. Look for Aaron Rodgers to attack the suspect Pittsburgh cornerbacks, making the Packers the more likely team to score on a big play here, as the Steelers figure to run the ball more.
Team to recover the first lost fumble - Pittsburgh -115 While these two defenses have similar numbers this season when it comes to points and yards allowed, the Pittsburgh defense has been much more adept at
forcing fumbles. In fact, the Steelers forced 28 fumbles during the regular season, and the 14 fumbles that the Pittsburgh defense recovered are almost as much as the total amount of fumbles that the Green Bay defense forced (16). Both of these teams recovered a low 50.0 percent of opponents' fumbles, with the Packers recovering only eight of them, but recovery percentage is more of a random statistic while forcing fumbles is mot. We would much rather take our chances on this prop with the team more likely to force the fumbles.
Team to enter the red zone first - Green Bay -115 This bet would rely heavily on who wins the opening coin toss if these teams each had an equal chance of driving the ball quickly, but we think that the Packers are more capable of driving faster simply because of the difference in the expected game plans of these teams. If the Packers get the ball first, we love the chances of Rodgers attacking the Steelers' cornerbacks right away and driving the Packers down the field on the game's opening drive just as he did vs. the Bears in the NFC Championship. If the Steelers get the ball first, we like the chances of the Green Bay defense stifling a more conservative Pittsburgh attack on their opening drive and giving Rodgers & Co. good field position to begin with.
Team to make first successful field goal - Pittsburgh -115 Pittsburgh kicker Shaun Suisham was almost automatic after signing with the Steelers, converting on 14 of his 15 field goal attempts in a black and gold uniform this season with a long of 48 yards. Granted, Mason Crosby has displayed a stronger leg for the Packers, but Green Bay has also been more apt to go for the first down on fourth and short than Pittsburgh has. In fact, the Packers went for it on fourth down 13 times this season while the Steelers did so just five times, increasing the chances that Suisham will get the first attempt at a field goal.
Player Props
Aaron Rodgers pass completions - 'over' 22½ -125 Rodgers is coming off of his worst playoff performance in the chilly conditions of Soldier Field in the NFC Championship Game where he completed just 17 out of 30 passes. Weather should not be much of an issue at Dallas this week though, and as stated earlier, the Packers figure to throw the ball more than 30 times this time around. Remember that Rodgers has completed 67.5 percent of his tosses this year, so if he throws the ball 36 times, that already equates to about 24 completions.
Ben Roethlisberger passing yards - 'under' 243.5 -110 As also stated earlier, the Steelers figure to be the more conservative of these two teams and run the ball a lot more, This is because while the Packers ranked fourth in the NFL in passing defense this season, they did allow a rather generous 4.6 yards per rush. Thus, we look for large doses of Rashard Mendenhall, which should shorten this game when Pittsburgh is on offense and cut into Ben Roethlisberger's numbers.
Rashard Mendenhall rushing attempts - 'over' 19.5 -110 This is obviously correlated to the Roethlisberger under passing yards prop, and thus there is an excellent chance of either winning both bets or losing both bets if we are wrong about the Pittsburgh game plan. However, we do expect the Steelers to continue to run the ball with Mendenhall even if he is not immediately successful, as not only would they be trying to exploit the vulnerable Green Bay rushing defense but they would also be keeping Rodgers on the sideline.
Greg Jennings pass receptions - 'over' 5 -125 This prop is pricier than the others, but we feel it is well worth it. Jennings has become the favorite of all of Rodgers' targets, and if Green Bay throws the ball as much as we expect this week, we cannot imagine Jennings finishing with fewer than five receptions. This becomes especially true if Pittsburgh defends against the deep ball and allows Rodgers to complete passes underneath the coverage.
Team to score the longest touchdown - Green Bay -115 Remember that the Steelers lead the NFL in rushing defense this season, so we would not be surprised to see Green Bay pass the ball 35-40 times in this game. Well, the Packers also happen to have one of the deepest receiving corps in the league, and we may see quite a few four-receiver sets in this game with Green Bay having all of their top receivers on the field at the same tome. Look for Aaron Rodgers to attack the suspect Pittsburgh cornerbacks, making the Packers the more likely team to score on a big play here, as the Steelers figure to run the ball more.
Team to recover the first lost fumble - Pittsburgh -115 While these two defenses have similar numbers this season when it comes to points and yards allowed, the Pittsburgh defense has been much more adept at
forcing fumbles. In fact, the Steelers forced 28 fumbles during the regular season, and the 14 fumbles that the Pittsburgh defense recovered are almost as much as the total amount of fumbles that the Green Bay defense forced (16). Both of these teams recovered a low 50.0 percent of opponents' fumbles, with the Packers recovering only eight of them, but recovery percentage is more of a random statistic while forcing fumbles is mot. We would much rather take our chances on this prop with the team more likely to force the fumbles.
Team to enter the red zone first - Green Bay -115 This bet would rely heavily on who wins the opening coin toss if these teams each had an equal chance of driving the ball quickly, but we think that the Packers are more capable of driving faster simply because of the difference in the expected game plans of these teams. If the Packers get the ball first, we love the chances of Rodgers attacking the Steelers' cornerbacks right away and driving the Packers down the field on the game's opening drive just as he did vs. the Bears in the NFC Championship. If the Steelers get the ball first, we like the chances of the Green Bay defense stifling a more conservative Pittsburgh attack on their opening drive and giving Rodgers & Co. good field position to begin with.
Team to make first successful field goal - Pittsburgh -115 Pittsburgh kicker Shaun Suisham was almost automatic after signing with the Steelers, converting on 14 of his 15 field goal attempts in a black and gold uniform this season with a long of 48 yards. Granted, Mason Crosby has displayed a stronger leg for the Packers, but Green Bay has also been more apt to go for the first down on fourth and short than Pittsburgh has. In fact, the Packers went for it on fourth down 13 times this season while the Steelers did so just five times, increasing the chances that Suisham will get the first attempt at a field goal.
Player Props
Aaron Rodgers pass completions - 'over' 22½ -125 Rodgers is coming off of his worst playoff performance in the chilly conditions of Soldier Field in the NFC Championship Game where he completed just 17 out of 30 passes. Weather should not be much of an issue at Dallas this week though, and as stated earlier, the Packers figure to throw the ball more than 30 times this time around. Remember that Rodgers has completed 67.5 percent of his tosses this year, so if he throws the ball 36 times, that already equates to about 24 completions.
Ben Roethlisberger passing yards - 'under' 243.5 -110 As also stated earlier, the Steelers figure to be the more conservative of these two teams and run the ball a lot more, This is because while the Packers ranked fourth in the NFL in passing defense this season, they did allow a rather generous 4.6 yards per rush. Thus, we look for large doses of Rashard Mendenhall, which should shorten this game when Pittsburgh is on offense and cut into Ben Roethlisberger's numbers.
Rashard Mendenhall rushing attempts - 'over' 19.5 -110 This is obviously correlated to the Roethlisberger under passing yards prop, and thus there is an excellent chance of either winning both bets or losing both bets if we are wrong about the Pittsburgh game plan. However, we do expect the Steelers to continue to run the ball with Mendenhall even if he is not immediately successful, as not only would they be trying to exploit the vulnerable Green Bay rushing defense but they would also be keeping Rodgers on the sideline.
Greg Jennings pass receptions - 'over' 5 -125 This prop is pricier than the others, but we feel it is well worth it. Jennings has become the favorite of all of Rodgers' targets, and if Green Bay throws the ball as much as we expect this week, we cannot imagine Jennings finishing with fewer than five receptions. This becomes especially true if Pittsburgh defends against the deep ball and allows Rodgers to complete passes underneath the coverage.
