Wednesday, February 23, 2011

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Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (+2, 191)Chicago will host Miami for the second time this season before taking its talents to South Beach next month. The previous encounter between these two Eastern beasts came on January 15, when Chicago held off the LeBron-less Heat 99-96 (spread was pushed). Kyle Korver hit a tiebreaking three with 25 seconds left and Dwyane Wade missed an answer attempt at the buzzer.


Miami (42-15, 29-27-1 ATS) will have to do a better job of containing All-Star point guard Derrick Rose, who scored 34 points and dished out eight assists. Chicago also dominated the rebounding battle 42 to 30. However, it would be a stretch to put any real stock in the outcome of that contest because LeBron James missed it due to an ankle injury.
The Bulls have the best home ATS record in the NBA.
The Bulls (38-16, 32-20-2 ATS) are heading into Thursday’s showdown off a Wednesday night visit to Toronto. They have been stellar in the second of back-to-back games this season, having posted a 10-4 SU record (7-6-1 ATS).


Turn up the Heat


Miami returned home from the All-Star break Tuesday and destroyed a woeful Sacramento team 117-97. The Big Three combined for 76 points, led by LeBron’s 31. Wade, refusing to sit out after tweaking his ankle in the fourth quarter of the All-Star Game, went for 23 points, eight rebounds and seven assists.


Now, though, is when it starts to get tough for the Heat. Starting on Thursday, 12 of their next 13 games are against teams that are above .500. Eleven of those 12 contests will come against opponents that are currently at least eight game over .500.


“It’s not like our schedule has been easy up to this point,” head coach Erik Spoelstra told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. “We’ve played more road games than anybody else. So now we’ll play the best of the best. And if you’re a professional worth their salt, and if we truly are a contending team, we’ll find out about ourselves.”


It begins with Chicago, the best ATS home bet in the entire NBA. The Bulls are 25-4 at the United Center and 18-9-2 ATS. They have been doing it without Joakim Noah, who has missed the last 30 games due to a thumb injury. Noah, though, is healed up and ready to go this week.


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The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four against the Eastern Conference.


The over is 4-1 in Chicago’s last five overall and 4-0 in its last four home games. The over is also 10-2 in Miami’s last 12 road contests against teams with winning home records.


Head-to-head, the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings and the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six encounters.


Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets (+3.5, 203.5)


The Nuggets will be looking to avenge a blowout loss earlier in the season when they take the court at home against Boston (41-14, 27-26-2 ATS) Thursday. In a December 8 clash at the Garden, the Celtics surged to a 35-21 lead after one quarter and coasted to a 105-89 win, easily covering the seven points.


Carmelo Anthony did not play in that game because of a knee injury and won’t be in Colorado after being traded to the New York Knicks this week. Reserves Ty Lawson (24 points) and J.R. Smith (16 points) picked up the slack, but it was nowhere near enough as Denver made only 6 of 19 3-pointers and got out-rebounded 42 to 34. Ray Allen led the way for Boston with 28 points on 9-of-14 shooting and Rajon Rondo had 13 dimes.


Melo-drama over
The Nuggets (33-25, 25-30-3 ATS) completed their long-awaited blockbuster deal by sending Anthony to the Knicks Monday. Denver also shipped off Renaldo Balkman, Chauncey Billups, Anthony Carter and Shelden Williams while acquiring Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Kosta Koufos and Timofey Mozgov.
Denver looked good in its first game without Anthony.
“I can’t deny that when the trade went down last night, I was kind of more sad than happy,” head coach George Karl told the Denver Post on Tuesday.


Denver’s impressive performance one day after the deal, though, must have done a lot to cure Karl’s sorrows. The Nuggets led by as many as 27 points in both the third and fourth quarters before cruising to a 120-107 victory over Memphis and making a joke out of the 1.5-point spread.


Only eight men saw action for the shorthanded home team and all eight played at least 20 minutes. Smith led six Nuggets in double figures with 26 points, while Lawson and Arron Afflalo each contributed 21. Denver forked up 28 shots from downtown and drained 12 of them, including six by Smith.


The team should have its newcomers in uniform for Thursday’s contest.


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The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win and they are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 against the NBA Atlantic.


The over is 5-1 in Denver’s last six overall and 8-1 in its last nine against the Eastern Conference.


Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Denver. The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the two teams.