Monday, February 28, 2011

WHO WILL WIN THE NL WEST IN 2011? THE GIANTS? THE ROCKIES?...

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For the first time since 2001, the defending World Series champion is from the National League West.

Much like the Diamondbacks with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, the San Francisco Giants dominated with spectacular pitching and just enough offense.

The Giants won’t have an easy time holding off Colorado, which has a better offense and a deep starting staff. The Los Angeles Dodgers have made changes in the dugout and on the field and need Matt Kemp to mature. It was a magical 2010 for San Diego, but does anyone really expect the Padres to duplicate 90 wins without Adrian Gonzalez? Arizona was 27-45 against division foes last year and has a weaker pitching staff.

Here’s an inside look at the odds to win the NL West and their season win totals:


"FEAR THE BEARD"
 Last season record: 92-70
Projected season win total: O/U 88
Odds to win NL West: +138

Biggest impact loss: SS Juan Uribe
Biggest impact addition: SS Miguel Tejada

Giants Outlook: The starting staff has two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, along with other young pitchers like Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, which gives San Fran backers the belief that they can be perennial National League contender. San Francisco was not dependent on its starting pitching alone, having a bullpen that helped them have a MLB-low ERA of 3.36 and held opposing batters to just .236 BA. Brian “the beard” Wilson returns as closer.

Offensively, the Giants were only average, ranking ninth in the senior circuit at 4.3 runs per contest. Beyond catcher Buster Posey and 3B Pablo Sandoval, are a slew of journeyman players. San Francisco is projected to be NL West champion again, but let’s not forget the Giants were 6.5 games behind San Diego on August 26. The Giants closed 21-13 and Padres fell into the Pacific Ocean with 14-23 mark in their last 37 tries.

It will be interesting to see how the young pitchers come back from all those extra postseason innings, as well as if the Giants’ everyday guys can come through in the clutch like they did in October.

Season win total pick: Under 88
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Last season record: 83-79
Projected season win total: O/U 86
Odds to win NL West: +201

Biggest impact loss: 2B Clint Barmes
Biggest addition: IN/OF Ty Wigginton, RHR Matt Lindstrom

Rockies outlook: Colorado’s starting pitching isn’t as strong as San Francisco’s, yet it looks to have the components to keep the Rockies in the NL West race all season. Ubaldo Jimenez was unhittable his first 14 starts a year ago, with a 13-1 record and 1.15 ERA. National League scouts love his ability and mental makeup, but wonder about his complicated delivery. Behind him are Jorge De La Rosa and 23-year-old Jhoulys Chacin. The real key will be the health and reliability of Aaron Cook and Jason Hammel to fill out rotation.

Acquiring reliever Matt Lindstrom was a shrewd move but could pay off if more issues develop for closer Huston Street and he should fit nicely with Rafael Betancourt in the late innings.

Colorado was third in the National League in runs scored and with Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Todd Helton and Ian Stewart, the Rockies lineup could be the top-scoring bunch in the NL. Newcomer Ty Wigginton gives manager Jim Tracy more flexibility against tough left handers.

Season win total pick: Over 86
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Last season record: 80-82
Projected season win total: O/U 84
Odds to win NL West: +350

Biggest impact loss: Joe Torre, C Russell Martin
Biggest impact addition: RHP Jon Garland, RHR Matt Guerrier
Dodgers Outlook: The Dodgers are the biggest wildcard in the division. After winning 95 games in 2009,

Customer Review #6308

From: Larry<xxxxxxxxxxxxxx@yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, February 21, 2011 3:51:40 PM
To: Michael Carpetti<michael@westcoasthandicapping.com>
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Saturday, February 26, 2011

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Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks
Saturday, 2/26/11, 8:30 PM EDT
Point Spread: Chicago -3.5
Total: 182

Chicago opens a five-game trip Saturday night and will look to avoid dropping a third consecutive game at the Bradley Center against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bulls are 11-0 against Central Division opponents this year and have already handed the Bucks two losses while facing off at the United Center, including a 92-83 victory on January 24. The team is coming off an exciting 93-89 home win over the Miami Heat last time out, as MVP candidate Derrick Rose contributed 26 points and 6 assists, while Luol Deng poured in 18 of his 20 points in the second half. “I felt like I needed to be more involved,” Deng commented. “One way I did that was to bring more energy.” Chicago is a solid 33-22 ATS on the season and currently a road favorite on the NBA lines page.

The Bulls are a .500 squad on the road this season with a 13-13 overall record, including a losing 5-7 mark against Eastern Conference opponents. The last time the team posted a winning road record in a single

Thursday, February 24, 2011

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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

MLB team win totals: Can the Phils win 98 games? GET YOUR MLB PACKAGE NOW.

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With Spring Training heating up and the regular season just around the corner, it’s time to start digging into MLB futures. Sportsbooks now have team win totals posted and here is a quick look at some of the more interesting numbers.

The frontrunners:
Philadelphia Phillies over/under 97 wins – the Phillies look like they’ll have the best starting five of the bigs, though manager Charlie Manuel isn’t getting too far ahead of himself. "You know what I'd like to have? If there was a horse race and it had 12 horses, I'd like to own all the horses," he told MLB.com about Philadelphia’s chances.

Boston Red Sox over/under 95 wins – Boston lost Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez to free agency, but may be an even stronger club after adding Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. USA Today currently lists the Red Sox No. 1 in their power rankings.

The cellar-dwellers:Pittsburgh Pirates over/under 66.5 wins – Can it get any worse for the Pittsburgh Pirates? The books seem to the think last season was rock bottom. They managed a league-low 57 wins last season.

Kansas City Royals over/under 69.5 wins – The Royals are preaching patience again this year, but at least this season they’ll be relying on prospects for the most part instead of again vets. Could be another long year for the Royals.

Other over/under win totals of note:

New York Yankees: 91.5

San Francisco Giants: 88

Chicago Cubs: 81.5

Cincinnati Reds: 85.5

Atlanta Braves: 88

Colorado Rockies: 87

Minnesota Twins: 87

Texas Rangers: 87.5

Toronto Blue Jays: 76.5

Customer Review #6291

From: XXXXXXXXXX@austin.rr.com
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2011 21:57:29 -0700
To: Michael Carpetti<michael@westcoasthandicapping.com>
Subject: Re: NCAA + 3 NBA - PLENTY of $$ Still on Tap
Michael,
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Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (+2, 191)Chicago will host Miami for the second time this season before taking its talents to South Beach next month. The previous encounter between these two Eastern beasts came on January 15, when Chicago held off the LeBron-less Heat 99-96 (spread was pushed). Kyle Korver hit a tiebreaking three with 25 seconds left and Dwyane Wade missed an answer attempt at the buzzer.


Miami (42-15, 29-27-1 ATS) will have to do a better job of containing All-Star point guard Derrick Rose, who scored 34 points and dished out eight assists. Chicago also dominated the rebounding battle 42 to 30. However, it would be a stretch to put any real stock in the outcome of that contest because LeBron James missed it due to an ankle injury.
The Bulls have the best home ATS record in the NBA.
The Bulls (38-16, 32-20-2 ATS) are heading into Thursday’s showdown off a Wednesday night visit to Toronto. They have been stellar in the second of back-to-back games this season, having posted a 10-4 SU record (7-6-1 ATS).


Turn up the Heat


Miami returned home from the All-Star break Tuesday and destroyed a woeful Sacramento team 117-97. The Big Three combined for 76 points, led by LeBron’s 31. Wade, refusing to sit out after tweaking his ankle in the fourth quarter of the All-Star Game, went for 23 points, eight rebounds and seven assists.


Now, though, is when it starts to get tough for the Heat. Starting on Thursday, 12 of their next 13 games are against teams that are above .500. Eleven of those 12 contests will come against opponents that are currently at least eight game over .500.


“It’s not like our schedule has been easy up to this point,” head coach Erik Spoelstra told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. “We’ve played more road games than anybody else. So now we’ll play the best of the best. And if you’re a professional worth their salt, and if we truly are a contending team, we’ll find out about ourselves.”


It begins with Chicago, the best ATS home bet in the entire NBA. The Bulls are 25-4 at the United Center and 18-9-2 ATS. They have been doing it without Joakim Noah, who has missed the last 30 games due to a thumb injury. Noah, though, is healed up and ready to go this week.


Trending topics


The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four against the Eastern Conference.


The over is 4-1 in Chicago’s last five overall and 4-0 in its last four home games. The over is also 10-2 in Miami’s last 12 road contests against teams with winning home records.


Head-to-head, the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings and the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six encounters.


Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets (+3.5, 203.5)


The Nuggets will be looking to avenge a blowout loss earlier in the season when they take the court at home against Boston (41-14, 27-26-2 ATS) Thursday. In a December 8 clash at the Garden, the Celtics surged to a 35-21 lead after one quarter and coasted to a 105-89 win, easily covering the seven points.


Carmelo Anthony did not play in that game because of a knee injury and won’t be in Colorado after being traded to the New York Knicks this week. Reserves Ty Lawson (24 points) and J.R. Smith (16 points) picked up the slack, but it was nowhere near enough as Denver made only 6 of 19 3-pointers and got out-rebounded 42 to 34. Ray Allen led the way for Boston with 28 points on 9-of-14 shooting and Rajon Rondo had 13 dimes.


Melo-drama over
The Nuggets (33-25, 25-30-3 ATS) completed their long-awaited blockbuster deal by sending Anthony to the Knicks Monday. Denver also shipped off Renaldo Balkman, Chauncey Billups, Anthony Carter and Shelden Williams while acquiring Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Kosta Koufos and Timofey Mozgov.
Denver looked good in its first game without Anthony.
“I can’t deny that when the trade went down last night, I was kind of more sad than happy,” head coach George Karl told the Denver Post on Tuesday.


Denver’s impressive performance one day after the deal, though, must have done a lot to cure Karl’s sorrows. The Nuggets led by as many as 27 points in both the third and fourth quarters before cruising to a 120-107 victory over Memphis and making a joke out of the 1.5-point spread.


Only eight men saw action for the shorthanded home team and all eight played at least 20 minutes. Smith led six Nuggets in double figures with 26 points, while Lawson and Arron Afflalo each contributed 21. Denver forked up 28 shots from downtown and drained 12 of them, including six by Smith.


The team should have its newcomers in uniform for Thursday’s contest.


Trending topics


The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win and they are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 against the NBA Atlantic.


The over is 5-1 in Denver’s last six overall and 8-1 in its last nine against the Eastern Conference.


Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Denver. The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the two teams.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Big East Basketball Betting: Notre Dame at Providence

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Providence Friars
Wed, Feb 23, 2011, 7pm EST, ESPN3
Current Line: Notre Dame -3.5

The ninth-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (21-5, 10-4 Big East) saw their seven-game winning streak come to an end over the weekend and will try to get back on track when they visit the Providence Friars (14-13, 3-11) on Wednesday. The Fighting Irish (-3.5) suffered a 72-58 loss at West Virginia on Saturday and now face a Providence team looking to break a four-game losing streak.

The Friars have gone 1-3 against the spread during their skid with the OVER cashing three times. They are coming off a 93-81 home loss to Cincinnati in overtime on Saturday, getting outscored 20-8 in the extra session after rallying back in the second half. The Bearcats blew a 16-point lead in the last eight minutes of regulation and trailed 73-72 with 33 second left when Marshon Brooks scored two of his game-high 27 points. Cincy forced OT by making one of two free throws.

Monday, February 21, 2011

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The Melo-drama is finally over: All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony is returning to the Big Apple to play for his hometown New York Knicks, according to a report in the Denver Post.

After months of speculation and anticipation, the Denver Nuggets finally pulled the trigger on a trade to send the Brooklyn native to New York in a nine-player deal on Monday night.

The Nuggets get forward Wilson Chandler, guard Raymond Felton, forward Danilo Gallinari, center Timofey Mozgov, the Golden State Warriors' 2012 and 2013 second-round picks, the Knicks' 2014 first-round draft pick plus $3 million in cash.

In exchange the Knicks receive guard Chauncey Billups, forward Shelden Williams, guard Anthony Carter, forward Renaldo Balkman and Anthony, who will co-star with offseason acquisition Amar'e Stoudemire in a move that New York fans hope will make the Knicks an instant playoff contender.

"I think it's a pretty even trade and you could even make an argument Denver got the best of this deal," Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, told us Monday night. "The Knicks gave up an awful lot. They kind of gutted their team."

The Sports Club is a consultant group that sets lines for a large number of Nevada's sportsbooks. Korner had the Knicks at +5000 to win the NBA championship before the trade and said he might lower that number to +3000 but wouldn't drop it any further because of who the Knicks would have to get by in the East to even make it to the Finals.

"I don't think New York improved that much. They're certainly not better than the big teams like Boston, Miami and Orlando in the East," Korner said.

The trade, which has dragged out for months while the Nuggets also negotiated with the New Jersey Nets, will not become official until the NBA approves the deal, which could happen as soon as Tuesday.

Denver hosts Memphis Tuesday night, but oddsmakers have yet to set a line for the game. It's uncertain if any of the Nuggets' new players will be available for Tuesday's tip off and there are rumors floating around that Denver might flip at least one of its newly acquired players to another team.

The Knicks are at home to Milwaukee on Wednesday.

THE NBA's FIRST HALF TRENDS

We’re at the midway point of the season (or close enough), so let’s take a look at some of the best and worst bets in the league at All-Star break:
OKC is the best over best in the NBA.
Best over team: Oklahoma City Thunder (33-21 O/U)

Oklahoma City was the best over bet at the first-quarter mark of the season and nothing has changed now that we’re at the All-Star break.

The Thunder have exceeded the over mark in seven of their past 10 games, thanks to a generally frenetic pace of play featuring impressive offense and lackluster defense. During that 10-game span, at least one of the two teams involved eclipsed the 100-point mark in nine of those contests. Both teams went over the century mark six times. The only time both squads were held under 100 was a 99-97 Thunder win at Sacramento last Saturday.

Both Kevin Durant (28.9) and Russell Westbrook (22.2) are averaging well over 20 points per game for Oklahoma City. Durant has scored in double figures every time he has taken the court this season and Westbrook has failed to reach double figures only once.

Best under team: New Orleans Hornets (21-37 O/U)

Recently, the smart bet involving the Hornets is to jump all over their opponents. New Orleans has lost three straight games (0-3 ATS) and nine of its last 11 outings (1-10 ATS).

But let’s not let that blind us from the fact the Hornets remain the best under bet in the league, just as they were at the quarter point. They have scored 100 points only once in their last 10 outings and overtime was needed at New Jersey in order for the Hornets to just barely reach triple digits in a 103-101 loss on February 9.

Defensive stalwart Emeka Okafor has missed New Orleans’ last nine games with an oblique strain, part of the reason why the team is 4-5 O/U in that span. When Okafor returns later this month, bettors can count on the under being a huge money-maker with the Hornets again.

Best ATS team: Philadelphia 76ers (35-20-1 ATS)

No team is getting better value this season that the Philadelphia 76ers. And why not? They went 27-55 a year ago and were supposed to be abysmal again this season.

Instead, the Sixers (27-29) have won as many games by the All-Star break as they did all of last season. Not coincidentally, they are best team against the spread in the entire NBA.

Philly won three of its last four heading into the weekend (3-1 ATS), including a 77-71 victory over the Spurs, so the team has plenty of momentum right now.

The Sixers should be able to keep it up, too. Two of their last three games in February will come against the two worst ATS teams in the league - Washington and Cleveland.
The Wizards are the worst road bet in the NBA.
Worst ATS team: Washington Wizards (20-34 ATS)

Speaking of the Wizards, they are just downright bad. Betting on Washington, though, is two-fold. The team is respectable at home (14-13, 12-15 ATS) and awful on the road (1-26, 8-19 ATS).

It’s not getting any better for the Wizards, either. They have lost 10 of their last 12 contests (4-8 ATS) and one of the two wins in that period should not even count, as it came against a Cleveland team that had just ended the longest losing streak in NBA history.

Just how bad are the Wizards on the road? Well, just keep reading…

Best home bet: Chicago Bulls (18-9-2 ATS)

Thursday’s showdown between Chicago and San Antonio confirmed what we already knew: the Bulls are the best home bet in the league.

The Spurs went into Chicago with a 6-2 record for their annual “Rodeo Road Trip” (not to mention with the best record in the NBA), but the Bulls handled them 109-99. Derrick Rose went off for 42 points and added eight assists.

As for Rose, how can you bet against the guy? He is averaging 24.9 points and 8.2 assists per game. At home he is draining 41 percent of his threes (29 percent on the road), dishing out 8.9 assists (7.3 on the road) and turning the ball over just 3.2 times per outing (3.9 on the road).  

Worst home bet: Atlanta Hawks (9-17 ATS)

Sunday, February 20, 2011

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Thursday, February 17, 2011

Double dribble: NBA TNT doubleheader betting preview

The Spurs were thought to be too old. The Bulls were thought to be lagging behind Eastern Conference powers Boston, Orlando, and Miami.

That was then. This is now. More than halfway through the season, both notions have been proved incorrect. San Antonio (46-9, 34-19-2 ATS) and Chicago (37-16, 31-20-2 ATS) are two of the five best teams in the entire NBA heading into Thursday’s showdown.
Derrick Rose has the Bulls contending in the East.
The Spurs are No. 1 in the league and the Bulls are fifth, well ahead of Orlando and within two games of both Boston and Miami in the East.

Prior engagement

This is the second of two clashes between San Antonio and Chicago this season. Playing at home on November 17, the Spurs erased 10-point halftime deficit by outscoring the visitors by a ridiculous 37-12 margin in the third quarter. San Antonio held on for a 103-94 victory to cover the 6.5-point spread. Tony Parker scored 21 points, Manu Ginobili added 20 and Tim Duncan had 16 points and 18 boards for the Spurs. Derrick Rose hit 15 of 27 shots and kept the Bulls in it with 33 points.

The Spurs won the rebounding battle 50 to 42, and that could be an even bigger problem for Chicago in this one. Joakim Noah, who had 10 points and 14 boards in the loss, is still out with a thumb injury and will not be back until late February.

Road warriors


Thursday’s contest marks the end of San Antonio’s 2011 “Rodeo Road Trip,” the team’s annual foray away from the AT&T Center, which has been hosting the San Antonio Stock Show and Rodeo.

For the Spurs, this trip has been one of their best. They are 6-2 through eight games, including an 89-88 win over the Lakers on February 3. A victory over Chicago would better their 6-3 mark in 2008 and would be their best effort since going 8-1 on the trek in 2003.

“We just have to stay focused, that’s going to be the main thing for us,” guard Tony Parker told reporters after Monday’s 102-85 beat down of New Jersey. “Focus on defense. We have a lot of room for improvement. Even if I think we’re on the right track, I think we can do a lot of stuff better and we just have to stay motivated.”

Trending topics

The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 7-0 ATS in their last seven against teams with winning percentages above .600.

The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with winning road records.

The under is 14-6 in San Antonio’s last 20 overall and 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the two teams.

The Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Chicago.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns (+1)

The Mavericks and Suns have faced each other only once this season going into Thursday night’s encounter. Playing at home on December 17, Dallas made a mockery of a 7-point spread and led by 21 points after three quarters before coasting to a 106-91 victory.

Phoenix (27-26, 23-28-2) played all but five minutes of the game without Steve Nash, who sustained a neck stinger in the first quarter. The Mavericks dominated with a balanced scoring attack. Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Caron Butler (now out for the season) and Shawn Marion all scored between 15 and 18 points.
Channing Frye and the Suns host Dallas Thursday.
The Mavericks head into this game following a home date with Sacramento on Wednesday night. They are a respectable 7-4 (7-4 ATS) in the second of back-to-back games this season.

Trade winds blowing?

“When healthy, we’re the best team in the league.”

That was Dallas guard Jason Terry to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram earlier this week. Needless to say, Terry does not think the Mavericks (38-16, 29-23-2 ATS) need to do any wheeling and dealing as the NBA trade deadline approaches.

At last season’s deadline, they made a seven-player swap with Washington that brought in Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson. Speaking of Butler, there’s a minor caveat to Terry’s “healthy” comment. These Mavericks will never be completely healthy because Butler is out for the year with a knee injury.

Still, the Mavs have won 11 of their past 12 games and the only blemish in this current span is a 121-120 setback at Denver last Thursday. Dallas will have Roddy Beaubois (foot) in uniform for the first time this season and recently-acquired Peja Stojakovic scored 22 points in a win at Houston Saturday.

“This year, our team’s intact,” Terry continued. “We’re feeling good. We’re coming off a stretch where we won 10 in a row and we’re starting to get healthy. I think that’s the biggest key for us.”

Trending topics

The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.

The Suns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with winning road records.

The over is 6-1 in Dallas’ last seven overall, 6-0 in its last six road games and 6-0 in its last six against the Western Conference. However, the under is 4-1 in Phoenix’s last five overall.

The over is 6-1 in the last seven meeting between the two teams in Phoenix. Both the home team and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five encounters.

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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

2/16 LATE NBA FREE PLAY: NEW ORLEANS at PORTLAND

New Orleans Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers
Wednesday, 2/16/11, 10:00 PM EDT
Point Spread: Portland -4.5
Total: 183

New Orleans can’t wait for the All-Star break to get here due to dropping eight of its last 10 games, including a 102-89 road loss to Golden State Tuesday night. “I don’t believe in excuses and I don’t believe in rescues,” said coach Monty Williams. “If guys want to keep their job, they’re going to have to learn how to play in tough times like this.” The Hornets are now 33-24 overall and have compiled a 7-11 mark on the road against Western Conference opponents. It’s important for the team to hold opponents to under 100 points on any given night, as it’s record is 4-16 when allowing foes to go over the century mark. New Orleans is 18-35 ATS versus Northwest division opponents the past three years and currently an underdog on the NBA lines page for tonight’s contest.

The Hornets defensive slide is alarming due to recent numbers, surrendering over 100 points in seven of the last 10 games. New Orleans has allowed an average of 99.9 during that stretch, even though its season average is 92.5. Many NBA experts believe the problems are magnified with the loss of center Emeka Okafor, who has been sidelined since the middle of the second game of this current 10-game stretch. “We’re scratching and clawing, trying to find ways to win games,” guard Willie Green stated. “We’ve got to find ways to get better and put two halve together.”

Portland is enjoying a season-high tying five-game winning streak and is being led by the outstanding play of forward LaMarcus Aldridge. He is averaging career highs of 22.1 points and 8.9 rebounds, but has gone even beyond that in scoring 31.2 points a night during the team’s current streak. “Since the announcement of the All-Stars, his play hasn’t dropped off,” said coach Nate McMillan. “It’s gotten even better.” The team has done an incredible job in overcoming injuries to guard Brandon Roy and center Marcus Camby, going 9-4 without the duo. Portland is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season.

The Blazers have lost the last two meetings with the Hornets and the road team has won six of the last seven meetings in the series. Portland still hasn’t dropped a season series versus New Orleans since the 2005-06 campaign. Offensively, the team has been dominating when shooting a higher percentage than its opponent, posting a 23-1 record in that situation. Portland is also second in the NBA shooting 80.4 percent at the line this season after setting a franchise record of 79 percent at the charity stripe last year. Both of those factors have come into play with the squad averaging 99.8 points per game in February and garnering a 6-2 record over that span.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

2/14 GAME OF THE DAY: W. VIRGINIA at SYRACUSE


A big battle in the Big East tips off at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse Monday evening when the Orange (20-6, 7-6) host West Virginia (16-8, 7-5) on ESPN. Let see how they match up.

Slip Sliding Away


An 18-0 start to the season seems like a distant memory today to Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim and his troops.

Syracuse knew it was up against it when they took the floor at Louisville this past Saturday.

The Cardinals paid tribute to its last national championship, honoring the 25th anniversary of its 1986 national championship with several of its prominent players returning, including Hall of Fame coach Denny Crum.

Through it all the Orange couldn't quite erase a 20-point second-half deficit when it fell, 73-69.

Senior forward Rick Jackson, who entered the game averaging 13.1 points and 11.4 rebounds, managed just seven points and seven boards against the Cardinals.

"It's tough when you're down (20) on the road to come all the way back," Boeheim said. "We made a great effort and got our offense going and did some good things on the defensive end, but you can't get that far behind.”

Syracuse enters tonight’s fray just 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight games.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

SATURDAY'S FREE LATE PLAYS

GONZAGA -10.5
PITTSBURGH +3
WEBER ST -2

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

THURSDAY'S BIG EAST SHOWDOWN AT THE GARDEN: UCONN vs ST JOHN's

Connecticut Huskies at St. John’s Red Storm
Thur, Feb 10, 2011, 7PM EST, ESPN
Line: UConn -1.5
Total: 131

The 10th-ranked Connecticut Huskies (18-4, 6-4 Big East) will try for their fifth straight road win on Thursday when they visit Madison Square Garden for this conference matchup with the St. John’s Red Storm (13-9, 5-5). The Huskies (-1) have won their last three league road games following arguably their most impressive victory of the season at #3 Texas back on January 8 in overtime, 82-81.

UConn is coming off a 61-59 win at Seton Hall last Saturday though that might have been more remarkable regardless of the opponent. The Huskies trailed the Pirates 56-46 with eight minutes left and avoided their third loss in a row overall by going on a game-ending 15-3 run. Leading scorer Kemba Walker continued to struggle with his shooting but still managed to hit some big shots when his team needed them, including a go-ahead 3-pointer with 2:32 remaining.

Walker finished the game by making 7 of 19 shots from the field en route to a team-high 19 points, and he

Top 5 under bets in college basketball


Whether it’s due to defensive prowess, offensive futility, an uneven schedule or overrating on the part of handicappers, there are several teams in college basketball that have consistently hit the under this season.

Texas Longhorns (5-12 over/under)

The Longhorns have been a smart bettor’s best friend this season, going 14-4-0 ATS while posting a 5-12-0 over/under mark, including 0-6-0 on the road.

Texas has gone under in five straight and seven of eight thanks to its defense, which ranks third in the nation in defensive field goal percentage, limiting opponents to 36.5 shooting and 60.0 points per game.

While the Longhorns average 76.4 points per game and have an otherwise solid offense, their poor shooting percentage from the charity stripe (64.7) can ruin an over bettor’s night.

Seton Hall Pirates (6-15)

The Pirates are lacking offensive punch with star guard Jeremy Hazell sitting on the bench due injury. Of course, Hazell’s 39.6 percent shooting isn’t doing much to help Seton Hall’s overall mark of 40.7 percent, which ranks 301st in the nation.

The Pirates are even worse from beyond the arc, knocking down just 28.7 percent of their 3-pointers - 337th in the NCAA. That shooting combined with a solid defense that holds opponents to 65.2 points per

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

NBA Picks for San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons

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San Antonio (42-8) has been good on the road this year with an outstanding 17-6 road record. It’s a good thing because they’ll need to be since they are only 3 games into a 9 game road trip while the AT&T Center hosts a rodeo. Their last home games was on Jan 29th, and their next won’t be until February 23rd.

On the other side of the ball will be the Detroit Pistons. They have a bit of a controversy going since Rip Hamilton is not playing and is feeling disrespected. It’s become so evident that Prince insisted it “(hasn’t) become a distraction for us,” and We need him. “We need him. There’s no doubt about that. At the same time a lot of games, sometimes we were playing behind the eight ball and that’s what we’re doing without him.” While Hamilton may welcome Prince’s respect, a trade seems almost inevitable at this point and the Pistons will likely not get much given Hamilton’s age and the fact that they will be forced into unloading him.

Some betting trends:

San Antonio is 13-2 SU in their last 15 games and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of those games. The total has also gone UNDER in 6 of their last 9 on the road and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games. San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Detroit and the total has gone UNDER in 8 of the last 11 games against the Pistons. San Antonio is 2-4 SU in their last 6 against the Pistons and 3-7 SU in their last 10 road games in Detroit. San Antonio is 3-7 ATS in their las 10 road games in Detroit and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 games in Detroit.

Detroit is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5. The total has gone OVER in 14 of Detroit’s last 19 home games and they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 home games. Detroit is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games against San Antonio and the total has gone UNDER in 8 of the last 11 against the Spurs. Detroit is 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games against the Spurs

Monday, February 7, 2011

Aguilera anthem controversy highlights Super Bowl bad beats

Like Jordy Nelson and James Jones, Christina Aguilera dropped the ball in the biggest game – and some bettors are left holding the check.

Aguilera botched the Star Spangled Banner something fierce, skipping one lyric and combining two others, in a one-minute and 53-second rendition of the American national anthem that has the betting world buzzing.

The four-time Grammy Award winner made it through the first three lines with no problems. But things fell apart right after “thro’ the perilous fight.”

Instead of following “thro’ the perilous fight,” with “O’er the ramparts we watch’d, were so gallantly streaming,” Aguilera belted out “What so proudly we (something that sounds like) wost, and the twilights last gleaming.”



It was bad, especially since her re-mix may have adjusted the length of the performance. For the record, she appeared to sing one more word in her confusion with the lyrics. But others suggest her flub slowed down the performance.

“It was a controversial performance with bettors,” said SportsInteraction.com betting analyst Al Dannity. “Aguilera came in narrowly under, but it’s hard to tell what impact her error had. Had she remembered the lyrics, then she would probably have been more composed and finished faster. Those betting the over mightn’t see it that way and I doubt they will be buying any of her records for some time.”

Sports Interaction’s sportsbook had the over/under on Aguilera’s performance at 1:54.5. Judging by YouTube replays, she finished at one minute and 53.5 seconds at the most. An argument could be made for 1:53.

“People expect singers to grandstand and drag the anthem out at big events such as the Super Bowl,” Sports Interaction oddsmaker Greg Sindall said, “so the over is always an overwhelmingly popular selection and that was the case.”

Nevada sportsbooks did not offer a prop bet on the national anthem. It’s against the state’s gaming regulations since there is no official statistic kept on the song’s length.

But offshore was a different story. Reports had some books voiding the bets all together, while some paid the over and others paid the under.

As sportsbooks continue to sort out one headache of a prop bet, there are plenty of other bettors out there shaking their heads about what could have been. It starts with Nelson, the Packer receiver who cashed as a +1,000 underdog by scoring the first touchdown in the Super Bowl, but could’ve done so much more.

Nelson caught nine passes for 140 yards and a touchdown, but had three drops and failed to make a finger-tip grab for a second touchdown. If he would have hauled in that touchdown and collected the yards from his other drops, Nelson could have finished with close to 200 yards and two touchdowns. He would have at least been in the MVP discussion with Aaron Rodgers. Nelson was a +2,500 underdog to be named MVP.

Nelson wasn’t the only Packer receiver in need of a hand transplant Sunday. Jones dropped what looked like a certain touchdown pass in third quarter. Jones, who had five catches for 50 yards, failed to score a touchdown, something that would have paid off +195.

In the end, Aguilera’s butchering of the national anthem will be remembered more in Bad Beats lore. But at least the former teen princess can take solace in that she wasn’t nearly as bad as Carl Lewis.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

GET THE WINNING PICK HERE FOR ONLY $10


Less than 24 hours away from the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers facing off in Super Bowl XLV, it’s time to hush away all the what-if talk and get down to the game itself. After all, when you peel away at the Aaron Rodgers v Brett Favre debate and Ben Roethlisberger’s legacy among other topics, we have a football game that needs to be played. Refresh everybody Herm, how do you play this game?

"You play to win the game".

Thanks Herm.

Thoughts

Unlike recent Super Bowl matchups, this one looks to be a game up for grabs. Now that may sound like something that would only make John Madden proud, but what better way to sum up this game? Neither team seems to have a distinctive edge, asides from experience by the Steelers (irrelevant, but a discussion for another time). Nobody is expecting a blowout or for the game to be decided by the fourth quarter.

Both teams have a quarterback who makes plays, one in the pocket and with precision with Rodgers while Roethlisberger is a master at improvisation who seemingly holds on to the ball too long only to make the play needed. Rodgers leads an aerial assault with gaudy stats while Roethlisberger, who’s admitted that he’ll never be a “stats guy”, manages a run-heavy approach, ready to take over when necessary.

These defenses certainly played a part in the run to the Super Bowl as the Steelers and Packers were ranked No. 1 and 2 in points allowed during the regular season. It’s no surprise that these two team’s defensive backbones also finished No. 1 and 2 for the defensive player of the year award where Steelers safety Troy Polamalu finished ahead of Packers linebacker Clay Matthews. Both teams are spoiled as Pittsburgh has the luxury of playing Polamalu alongside a feared group of linebackers with NFL-fines-machine James Harrison, James Farrior, and Lawrence Timmons.


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SUPER BOWL PROPS TO CONSIDER

Team Props

Team to score the longest touchdown - Green Bay -115    Remember that the Steelers lead the NFL in rushing defense this season, so we would not be surprised to see Green Bay pass the ball 35-40 times in this game. Well, the Packers also happen to have one of the deepest receiving corps in the league, and we may see quite a few four-receiver sets in this game with Green Bay having all of their top receivers on the field at the same tome. Look for Aaron Rodgers to attack the suspect Pittsburgh cornerbacks, making the Packers the more likely team to score on a big play here, as the Steelers figure to run the ball more.

Team to recover the first lost fumble - Pittsburgh -115     While these two defenses have similar numbers this season when it comes to points and yards allowed, the Pittsburgh defense has been much more adept at

Thursday, February 3, 2011

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NBA on TNT PREVIEW & PICK: SPURS @ LAKERS

The Lakers (34-15, 21-27-1 ATS) will be looking to make a statement in a showdown between the Western Conference’s top two teams at the Staples Center Thursday night.

They did not have a good showing in this season’s only previous encounter between the two teams, which was a 97-82 Spurs’ blowout in San Antonio, with the home team making a joke out of the 3.5-point spread.

Tim Duncan (two points, four rebounds) and Kobe Bryant (21 points on 8-of-27 shooting) both had sub-par outings, but Duncan’s supporting cast proved to be far superior. No other Lakers players scored more than 10 points. Tony Parker scored 23 points, Richard Jefferson added 15 and DeJuan Blair had a big double-double with 17 points and 15 boards for the Spurs. San Antonio also turned the ball over just nine times to L.A.’s 16 giveaways.

Road-io

For two teams that are leading their conference, both the Spurs and the Lakers are dealing with a decent amount of adversity.

San Antonio (40-8, 28-12-2 ATS) is just getting started with its annual “Rodeo Road Trip”, as the AT&T Center is hosting the San Antonio Stock Show and Rodeo. The Spurs’ first of nine games away from home went terribly for them Tuesday. They got hammered by Portland 99-86 with the Blazers’ LaMarcus Aldridge going off for 40 points.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, has lost two of three and is 0-3 ATS in that span. The Lakers got crushed by Boston at home Sunday and needed overtime to beat Houston Tuesday. Andrew Bynum missed Tuesday’s tilt with a bruised left knee, but Lamar Odom started in his place and erupted for 20 points and 20 rebounds.

“It's good,” Bynum said after the game. “I should be back.”

Head coach Phil Jackson, however, sounded less confident, so Bynum will probably be a game-time decision.

Trending topics

The Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games and 0-4 ATS in their last four against the NBA Southwest.

The under is 11-2 in the Spurs’ last 13 overall and 8-2 in their last 10 against the Western Conference.

San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games at the Staples Center while the under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the two teams in Los Angeles.

PLAY the SPURS +4

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Where the Super Bowl XLV pointspread is headed

As kickoff approaches, the Super Bowl point spread is shifting.

Multiple offshore sportsbooks made a statement earlier this week by bumping up the line to Green Bay -3.

Las Vegas sportsbooks were still sitting at Packers -2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. But the MGM Mirage had increased the juice and was now charging -120 to bet Green Bay at -2.5.

“I believe it may go to 3,” said MGM sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback. “They laid the -115. I wouldn’t be surprised it went to 3.”

Offshore, Sportsbook.com and BookMaker.com were among the books that recently made the jump to Green Bay -3. Michael Perry, oddsmaker for the Sportsbook.com, told Covers.com Tuesday that they received enough action from “bettors that we respect” to make the significant half-point adjustment.

Bodog.com opened at Packers -3 and was holding steady, although the juice had been altered. Bodog was offering Green Bay -3 (+105), with the Steelers +3 (-125).

2/2 BIG EAST PREVIEW: Marquette @ Villanova & Syracuse @ UConn + FREE PICK

FREE NCAAB PICK: Maryland +5

Marquette Golden Eagles at Villanova Wildcats
Wed, Feb 2, 2011, 7pm EST, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Villanova -6
Current Total: 151
Money Line: Villanova -265 / Marquette +225

The 12th-ranked Villanova Wildcats (17-4, 5-3 Big East) will try to avoid a three-game losing streak when they host the Marquette Golden Eagles (14-8, 5-4) in a key conference matchup on Wednesday. The Wildcats (-6) are already riding a season-long two-game skid and have dropped three of their last four, which is exactly what Marquette was suffering through before pulling off a 76-70 home win over Syracuse.

Villanova is coming off a 69-66 home loss to Georgetown on Saturday after falling at Providence 83-68 a week ago. Senior guard Corey Stokes has struggled over his last five games since scoring 23 points in an 88-74 win over Louisville on January 12. Stokes is averaging just 9.6 points during that stretch, failing to crack double figures three times after scoring 19 or more in five of his previous six games. He averaged 13 points in three meetings with the Golden Eagles last year.

Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns led the Wildcats in the loss to the Hoyas with 15 points apiece while nobody on the team could figure out a way to stop Austin Freeman, who scored a game-high 30. Freeman connected on 10 of 19 shots from the field and made all eight of his free throws as Georgetown shots over 52 percent as a team.

Marquette has dropped three straight league games away from home but enjoyed life at the Bradley Center against the Orange on Saturday. The Golden Eagles also shot 52 percent from the field and won despite allowing Syracuse to shoot 57 percent. The big difference in that game came at the charity stripe, where they made 10 more free throws (24) than the Orange attempted (14).

After playing three of four games at home, Marquette begins a tough stretch of three consecutive road games before returning to Milwaukee on February 15. The Golden Eagles are giving up nearly 76 points per game on the road this season on 50 percent shooting from the field. They also average almost seven rebounds per game less away from home.

Still, Marquette is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings with Villanova even though the teams have split those games straight-up. The Wildcats are 4-1 SU in the past five meetings, but the last four games have all been decided by four points or less. The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the teams.

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Syracuse Orange at Connecticut Huskies
Wednesday, Feb 2, 2011, 7pm EST, ESPN
Line: UConn -3
Total: 138.5

The 17th-ranked Syracuse Orange (18-4, 5-4 Big East) have never lost five straight games under head coach Jim Boeheim and will try to avoid that scenario on Wednesday night when they visit the sixth-ranked Connecticut Huskies (17-3, 5-3). The Orange have not dropped five in a row since 1969 due mostly to poor defense while the Huskies (-3) will look to rebound from a 79-78 double-overtime home loss to Louisville on Saturday.

UConn had a six-game winning streak snapped after falling to the Cardinals with leading scorer Kemba

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

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Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Tuesday, 2/1/11, 10:30 PM EDT
Point Spread: Los Angeles -8
Total: 209

Houston has dropped four of its last six away from home and face the two-time defending champions at Staples Center on Tuesday night. The Rockets have been struggling over the last couple weeks and point guard Aaron Brooks has placed some of the blame squarely on himself. “We’ve been losing,” he stated. “I don’t feel like I’m doing my job to help right now. I’m still trying to get in the rhythm of things and help the team out.” The team is coming off a 108-95 defeat to San Antonio last time out, as it trailed by five points heading into the fourth quarter, which was a bad place to be considering the Spurs are 32-1 this season when leading after three quarters. Houston is 12-14 ATS as an underdog this season, but carries in an impressive 8-2 ATS mark against Pacific division opponents. Make sure to check out the NBA lines page for movement on this particular game.

The Rockets are 5-11 overall on the road against Western Conference opponents during the 2010-11 campaign and are 25-70 against the Lakers in Southern California. Houston has given Los Angeles problems of late, including a 109-99 home win on December 1, closing the game on a 25-8 run. Offensively, the squad would be best served to lean heavily on guard Kevin Martin, who has scored a combined 48 points in the season’s first two match-ups. He is coming off a disappointing effort in scoring just 10 points against the Spurs on 4 of 13 shooting from the field. “I just lost the rhythm,” Martin commented. “I don’t know how I lost it, but I just did.”

Los Angeles isn’t scaring many opponents this season and is now 1-5 against top contenders Boston, Miami, Chicago, San Antonio and Dallas this season. The Lakers have also found ways to lose to some of the worst teams in the league, including a home loss to Sacramento on Friday. “It’s probably more of a disappointment to me that we haven’t taken care of the teams that we should take care of,” said coach Phil Jackson. “The inconsistency is what bothers me most.” The team really needs to grab a decisive victory in this particular contest due to facing San Antonio and then embarking on a seven-game road trip. Los Angeles is 10-15 ATS at home and 21-26 ATS as a favorite this season.

The Lakers have an 18-7 overall record at the Staples Center this season, including a 10-3 mark against Western foes. Los Angeles is 8-2 against Houston in the last 10 overall meetings and are 14-8 all-time against them in tonight’s venue. In 48 career games versus Houston, star guard Kobe Bryant is averaging 26.7 points per game, which is his fifth-highest among all opponents faced.

Bettors will be interested in knowing the Lakers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, while the Rockets are 3-7-1 ATS versus the Western Conference.