Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sat, Jan 15, 2011, 4:30pm EST, CBS
Line: Steelers -3
Total: 37
The Baltimore Ravens (13-4) have figured out a way to beat most of the great quarterbacks in the NFL lately, but they will try to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) with Ben Roethlisberger under center for the first time in seven tries on Saturday when they meet in the AFC divisional playoffs. Roethlisberger’s Steelers (-3) are 8-2 all-time against the Ravens, who have only beaten AFC North rival Pittsburgh recently when Charlie Batch or Dennis Dixon have started in his place.
Batch started the first meeting with Baltimore back in Week 4 due to Roethlisberger’s four-game suspension for breaking the NFL’s personal conduct policy, which resulted in a 17-14 loss. Roethlisberger was back for the rematch in Week 13 and pulled out a 13-10 victory for Pittsburgh despite suffering a broken nose early in the game. He benefit from the Steelers playing outstanding defense, led by All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu.
Polamalu made his case for the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award by stripping Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco in the final minutes, which Roethlisberger converted into the game-winning touchdown on a 9-yard pass to running back Isaac Redman with 2:51 remaining. That enabled Pittsburgh to win for the sixth straight time in the series when Roethlisberger starts.
These divisional foes also battled it out in the AFC championship game two years ago with Polamalu returning a Flacco interception 40 yards for a game-clinching touchdown in a 23-14 victory. Polamalu has been nursing a sore Achilles’ tendon and sat out two of the team’s last three games in preparation for the playoffs.
Baltimore is perfectly capable of breaking through this time around though, bringing a 7-3 all-time postseason road record into the third meeting between the teams this year. The Ravens annihilated Kansas City 31-7 last Sunday behind a dominant defensive performance of their own. They had three sacks of Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel, who was also picked off three times and completed 9 of 18 passes for only 70 yards.
Offensively, Baltimore got a solid performance from Flacco against Kansas City and will likely need another one to get back to the AFC championship. He completed 25 of 34 passes for 265 yards with two touchdowns and earned perhaps his signature victory in the first meeting at Pittsburgh earlier this season, beating his hometown team by throwing a game-winning 18-yard scoring strike to wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh with 32 seconds left.
The Steelers are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight January games, and the OVER is 9-1 in their past 10 home playoff games. The OVER is also 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings, although the total has gone UNDER in the past two games between the teams.
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Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Sat, Jan 15, 2011, 8pm EST, FOX
Line: Falcons -2.5
Total: 44.5
The Atlanta Falcons (13-3) should be home underdogs against the Green Bay Packers (11-6) on Saturday in their NFC divisional playoff matchup according to most of the mainstream media. But oddsmakers still favor the Falcons (-2.5) in a rematch of an epic regular-season meeting between the teams from Week 12.
Atlanta won that game 20-17 when kicker Matt Bryant connected on a game-winning 47-yard field goal with 13 seconds left after Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers had tied the game with a 10-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Jordy Nelson 43 seconds earlier. If the second meeting is anything like the first game, fans and bettors alike should be prepared for an instant classic.
Still, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is 20-2 all-time at the Georgia Dome and also beat the Packers 27-24 at Lambeau Field two years ago when he was a rookie. Ryan is coming off his best season (career-high 28 touchdowns and career-low nine interceptions) and made the Pro Bowl over Rodgers, who is just 2-14 during his career in games decided by four points or less.
As you can see, two of those games for Rodgers’ Packers came against Atlanta, so will the third time be the
charm? Ironically, none of Green Bay’s six losses this year were decided by more than four points, and only two of the team’s wins were decided by less than a touchdown.
The difference this time around could very well be whether or not overnight sensation James Starks can build off his rookie record playoff performance last week for the Pack. The running back out of Buffalo rushed for 123 yards in his first major action of the year, helping lead Green Bay to a 21-16 victory at Philadelphia. It seems fitting that he rose to prominence in Philly considering leading rusher Ryan Grant was lost for the season to a knee injury there in a season-opening 27-20 win.
The Packers did not have a rushing attack to speak of before last week’s game unless you count Rodgers, who ran for a team-high 51 yards and a touchdown in the last meeting with the Falcons. Starks has the potential to give Green Bay another dimension to its dangerous offense, but Atlanta ranked 10th in the NFL in run defense during the regular season, giving up 105.9 yards per game.
Atlanta will look to Pro Bowl running back Michael Turner to give Ryan that same advantage of a balanced offense. Turner rushed 23 times for 110 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting and will be going up against a Packers defense that surrenders 114.9 yards per game on the ground.
The Falcons are a remarkable 7-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings with Green Bay, winning five of those games straight-up. They were 5-3 ATS at home this season to go along with their 7-1 SU mark there.
