Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Poinsettia Bowl Preview: Navy vs San Diego St

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Navy Midshipmen vs San Diego St Aztecs
Thur, 12/23/10, 8PM EDT, TV: ESPN
Point Spread: San Diego St -6
Total: 60.5

Navy enters the contest ranked No. 1 in the country in fewest penalty yards per game and fifth in rushing by gaining 288.9 yards a contest. Navy closed out the regular season with a 31-17 win over Army on December 11 despite miscues by starting quarterback Ricky Dobbs. The Midshipmen are undoubtedly led on offense by Dobbs, who has recorded 48 career rushing touchdowns, which is the fifth-most by a quarterback in NCAA history. He also needs 140 yards rushing to become just the seventh quarterback in college football history to rush for 1,000 yards and pass for 1,000 yards in a season twice in his career. The Poinsettia Bowl marks Navy’s 17th bowl appearance, including a school-record eight straight. In its postseason history, the team has compiled a 7-8-1 bowl record, dropping the last three by a combined 14 points.

The Aztecs posted an 8-4 overall record and their four losses came by a total of 15 points. Among those four losses are three that occurred on the road, with all three opponents currently ranked 20th or higher by the Associated Press. San Diego State is 6-4 ATS on the season and 3-3 ATS when favored. The Aztecs
defense will have had a good amount of time to prepare for the Midshipmen’s option attack and they allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the Mountain West. “You have to stop the fullback,” said coach Brady Hoke. “Either after the fake or when he has it, he’s the one getting down the field cutting linebackers and alley players. You have to stop him.” This will mark Hoke’s third encounter with the Midshipmen after sweeping a home-and-home series in his final two seasons at Ball State.

Bettors will be interested in the Midshipmen being 7-0 ATS versus teams with a winning record, while the Aztecs are 1-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.