Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Betting Odds: TCU -2.5/Wis +2.5
Over/Under Total: 58.5
This game will turn on how well Wisconsin’s power running game can get going against the Horned Frogs heralded defensive front seven.
Anchored by left tackle and Outland Trophy winner Gabe Carimi, the Badgers offensive line goes 6-foot-6 and 300-pounds across the board and is the biggest and strongest line the Frogs will have played against this season. With John Clay (936 yards, 5.3 ypc), Montee Ball (1,029 yards, 7.0 ypc) and James White (864 yards, 6.1 ypc) all rotating at running back to stay fresh, the Badgers continue to lean on you every play and just wear you down to the tune of 248 yards on the ground each game.
Senior quarterback Scott Tolzien isn’t flashy, but he led the nation in accuracy (74.3 comp. %) and is very good of taking advantage of openings in the passing game when teams brings safeties into the box to stop the run.
But TCU’s defense is the top-ranked defense in the country, limiting teams to just 215 yards of total offense and only 11.4 points per game so something will have to give. The Frogs only allowed 89.2 yards per game on the ground, so you can bet their game plan is to try and contain the Badgers and force Tolzien to have to win it in the air.
TCU has it’s own senior quarterback in Andy Dalton who led an attack that finished 10th in the country in yards (490.8 ypg), 9th in rushing (260.5 ypg) and 4th in points scored (43.3 ppg), but most of that was done against
the weak sisters of the MWC. Ed Wesley (1,065 yards, 11 TD) and Matthew Tucker (694 yards, 7 TD) get a majority of the carries out of the backfield, and TCU has 11 different receivers that all averaged over 10 yards per catch, so on paper the Frogs offense looks like they should be able to complete with the Badgers offense in this game punch for punch.
But the Badgers defense will be a legitimate test for the Frogs offense, more than the Frogs faced in the MWC this season, so those big stats might not mean as much come kickoff. Wisconsin did allow some yardage on the ground at times this season (128.5 ypg – 34th), so if Wesley and Tucker can find creases and take pressure off of Dalton the Frogs could keep their defense fresh and off the field.
The Badgers have had some struggles against teams from the MWC in the past though, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team from the Mountain West and just 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games overall.
Despite all of the early money driving the total upwards, the under might actually be a strong play for this game. The under is 6-0-1 in TCU’s last seven bowl games and it’s 4-1-1 in their last six neutral site games. The under is also 4-1 in Wisconsin’s last five bowl games, it’s 6-1 in their last seven games against a MWC opponent, and 4-1 in their last five neutral site contests.
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Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Florida Gators
1:00 p.m. EST, Saturday, January 1, 2010,
Betting Odds: PSU +7.5/Fla -7.5
Over/Under Total: 48
Penn St. failed to beat a ranked opponent all seasons long. The Nittany Lions stared off 3-1 with wins over Youngstown State, Kent State and Temple and a loss at Alabama. But then they lost two in a row to Iowa and Illinois. Then, it looked like they would turn it around. The Nittany Lions won three games in a row over Minnesota, Michigan and Northwestern. But they ended the season on a bad note by losing two of their last three games to Indiana and Michigan State. In their first four losses, the Nittany Lions scored a combined 33 points and didn't come within 20 of any of those teams. They lost 28-22 to Michigan State at home in their last game after a 41-24 win at Indiana.
Florida started the season at 4-0 and all was looking fine in the start of the post-Tim Tebow era. They breezed past Miami of Ohio, South Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky. The Gators won all four games by at least 14 points, scored at least 31 in all four games, and allowed no more than 17 points in any of those four games. But then, the Gators lost three games in a row to Alabama, LSU and Mississippi State. They rebounded with consecutive wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt, but they still ended the season by losing two of their last three games to South Carolina and Florida State - by a combined 46 points - with a win over Appalachian State sandwiched in between. Just like Penn State, the Gators also failed to defeat a ranked opponent all season long.
Florida has the 13th best pass defense in the nation, allowing 173 passing yards per game. The Gators have more interceptions (17) than passing touchdowns allowed (16). Penn State is allowing 187.9 passing yards per game. Florida is allowing 129.9 rushing yards per game, while Penn State is allowing 164.6 rushing yards per game.
Penn State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as an underdog. Florida is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games. The under is 7-0 in Penn State's last seven non-conference games and 6-0 in its last six games vs. SEC teams. The over is 6-0 in Florida's last six games vs. the Big Ten.
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Uconn Huskies vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Sat, Jan 1, 2010 8:30 p.m. EST, ESPN
Betting Odds: Connecticut +17/OKL -17
Total: 55
The Huskies are in the Fiesta Bowl for a reason, and they will be prepared. Midway through the season, the Huskies were 3-4 after a 26-0 at Louisville. The week before that, they lost 27-24 at Rutgers. They also lost road games at Michigan and Temple, and got wins at home over Texas Southern, Buffalo and Vanderbilt. But then, the Huskies turned it around. They won their last five games of the regular season. They knocked off Big East powers West Virginia and Pitt at home by a combined five points. Then, they won 23-6 at Syracuse, 38-17 at home over Cincinnati, and 19-16 at South Florida.
UConn quarterback Zach Frazer has 1,202 passing yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions this season with a 52.7 completion percentage, not exactly the best stats in the world for a BCS team's quarterback. The Huskies are very heavily reliant on their running game. Running back Jordan Todman has 1,516 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Todman is fifth in the country in rushing yards. As a team, the Huskies have more than 2,000 rushing yards this season. Michael Smith leads the team in receiving with 42 receptions for 595 yards and two touchdowns. Kashif Moore has 32 receptions for 390 yards and four touchdowns.
Oklahoma has just two losses this season, at Missouri (36-27) and at Texas A&M (33-19). The Sooners started the season 6-0 with wins over Utah State, Florida State, Air Force, Cincinnati, Texas and Iowa State. They got a win over Colorado in between the two losses. But the Sooners ended the season on a great note by winning their last four games. After easy wins over Texas Tech and Baylor, they got perhaps their two best wins of the year to close the season. They won 47-41 at Oklahoma State and 23-20 at home over Nebraska.
Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football this season. He has 4,289 passing yards, 35 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He is completing 65.3 percent of his pass attempts. Sooners running back DeMarco Murray has been one of the better running backs in college football as well. He has 1,090 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. Murry also has 69 catches for 595 yards and five touchdowns. And Ryan Broyles is one of the top wide receivers in college football. In 13 games, he has a ridiculous 118 catches for 1,452 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Oklahoma is allowing 212.2 passing yards per game. The Sooners have more interceptions (17) than passing touchdowns allowed (15). UConn's pass defense is even better. The Huskies have allowed 206.4 passing yards per game and 13 touchdowns while intercepting 19 passes. UConn is allowing 147.3 rushing yards per game, while Oklahoma is allowing 151.8 rushing yards per game.
UConn is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog, 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. teams with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss, 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games.
