TODAYS FREE PICK: 5* ATLANTA -6
Sunday, Dec 19, 2010, 4pm EST, TV: FOX
Line: Falcons -6
Total: 45
Atlanta has been perfect at home this season with a 6-0 record at the Georgia Dome and currently owns the best record in the NFC, which will secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if the same scenario hold true after the final three weeks. The Falcons already beat New Orleans on the road earlier this season and does not want to overlook Seattle in this spot.
The Seahawks have been humbled following a 4-2 start, dropping five of their last seven games. Regardless, they still have an excellent opportunity to make the playoffs as current co-leaders of the NFC West. They are coming off a 40-21 loss at San Francisco last week, but the 49ers followed that up by losing 34-7 at San Diego on Thursday night.
Seattle’s main problem has been defense, as opponents are averaging 32.5 points in the last four games. The OVER has cashed in the team’s last six games, and division leaders Kansas City and the New York Giants have combined for 83 points in recent trips to Quest Field. Wide receiver Mike Williams hopes to return for the Seahawks after missing the last three games with foot and ankle injuries. Williams leads the team with 52 catches for 654 yards and gives quarterback Matt Hasselbeck a huge weapon to target downfield.
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan knows what having a valuable receiver can do, as Roddy White leads the NFL with 99 catches and 1,219 yards. White could come up big against a Seattle secondary that is ranked 30th in the league, giving up 266 yards per game through the air. Ryan has also had a lot of help from running back Michael Turner, who has rushed for 708 yards and 10 touchdowns in the last seven games. Ryan has averaged 247.4 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and just four interceptions over that same period.
The Falcons are 6-1 against the spread during their winning streak and have seen the OVER go 5-1-1 during that stretch. However, they have lost four of the last five meetings with Seattle dating back to 2000.
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Sunday, Dec. 19, 2010, 1pm EST, TV: FOX
Line: Cowboys -6
Total: 46
Dallas is 5-0 against the spread since Jason Garrett took over as head coach with the total going OVER in every game during that stretch. The OVER is a remarkable 10-0 since the team’s bye week, although the first five games of that run were due more to poor defense than good offense. The Cowboys surrendered 35.8 points per game in those first five games after the bye while they have averaged 32 in the last five since then.
The biggest change under Garrett has been the competitiveness displayed on the field no matter what the deficit. The two most recent losses were by identical 30-27 scores against two of the top teams in the NFC (Philadelphia and New Orleans). Dallas trailed the Saints by 17 points before rallying to actually take the lead briefly and also mounted a comeback against the Eagles.
Washington has not been as resilient despite having plenty of opportunities. The Redskins are 1-5 in their last six games, going 1-4-1 ATS. They are coming off a heartbreaking 17-16 home loss to Tampa Bay last week in which kicker Graham Gano missed what would have been the game-tying extra point with nine seconds remaining.
Running back Ryan Torain returned to action for the first time in five games and rushed for a career-high 172 yards on 24 carries in the loss. Torain had been suffering from a hamstring and gives Washington a legitimate threat on the ground to take pressure off quarterback Donovan McNabb, who has thrown a career-high 15 interceptions this season. Against the Bucs, McNabb did not throw a pick and turned in his first passer rating of 100 since Week 2 against Houston.
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Sunday, Dec. 19, 2010, 1pm EST, TV: CBS
Line: Titans -1
Total: 47
Houston has enjoyed leads in each of the last five losses, with the team’s poor defense playing a major role in deciding them. The Texans spotted Baltimore a 28-7 lead before roaring back to tie the game in the final seconds, and then quarterback Matt Schaub threw an interception for a touchdown in overtime that gave the Ravens a 34-28 win and covered the 3-point spread.
Schaub passed for 393 yards against Baltimore with three touchdowns and two interceptions, and he has thrown a pick in six of the team’s eight losses this season. He threw for 178 yards in the last meeting with Tennessee while running back Arian Foster proved to be a dangerous weapon running and catching the ball. Foster rushed for 143 yards on 30 carries and caught eight passes for 75 yards yet was somehow kept out of the end zone.
The Titans are coming off a surprising back-door cover in a 30-28 home loss to Indianapolis last week, scoring a touchdown on the game’s final play. They trailed the Colts 21-0 late in the second quarter before running back Chris Johnson scored a touchdown with 49 seconds remaining that seemingly turned the tide of the game from a betting perspective. Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins connected on a 7-yard touchdown pass to Craig Stevens with 11:09 left in the third quarter, and his team’s defense limited Indy to three field goals in the second half.
That is the only cover for the Titans during their six-game losing streak and also snapped a three-game streak of UNDERs cashing after three consecutive OVERs. Tennessee is 1-3 straight-up and against the spread in the last four meetings with Houston with the UNDER going 3-1.
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Sunday, Dec. 19, 2010, 4:15 pm EST, TV: CBS
Line: Raiders -6.5
Total: 43
Denver’s lowest point of the season may have very well come in the last meeting with Oakland, or it may have come just last week in a demoralizing 43-13 loss at Arizona. The Broncos were crushed as 4-point road favorites due to another poor performance from quarterback Kyle Orton and the inability to stop the Cardinals from moving the ball consistently throughout the game. The lone bright spot offensively for the Broncos has been running back Knowshon Moreno, who rushed for 81 yards and scored the team’s only touchdown. Moreno rushed for a season-high 161 yards on 23 carries against the Chiefs in the previous game and figures to get a heavy workload against a Raiders defense that is surrendering 132.8 yards per game on the ground.
Oakland running back Darren McFadden was the star of the last meeting with Denver, as he rushed for a season-high 165 yards, added 31 receiving yards and scored four touchdowns. McFadden is also coming off a monster performance in last week’s 38-31 loss at Jacksonville, totaling 209 yards rushing and receiving and scoring three touchdowns. The team fell to 5-3 in games McFadden has carried the ball at least 16 times.
Despite McFadden’s strong play lately, the Raiders have dropped three of their last four games both straight-up and against the spread following a 5-4 start. But the Broncos have been even worse, losing eight of their last nine games and McDaniels along the way. Oakland has covered seven of the last nine meetings with Denver even though the Broncos have won five of those games. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between the teams.
